606 
AXPZ20 KNHC 022121
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 18.0N 127.4W at 2100 
UTC, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 
kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 100 nm from the center. 
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from
17.5N to 20.5N between 126W and 129W. Douglas is expected to 
continue to gradually turn toward the northwest tonight through 
Fri, and gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable 
atmospheric and oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to 
remain a tropical storm tonight, and become a 30 kt post- 
tropical remnant low on Fri, then continue to move NW and 
gradually dissipate over the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 84W-85W, south of 20N in the NW 
Caribbean, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is 
described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON 
TROUGH section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W-99W, south of 15N, moving 
west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below 
in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 05.5N79W to 09.5N86W 
to 05.5N98W to 08N104W to 04N111W, then resumes south of Douglas
from 13.5N127W to 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 04.5N to 11N between 79W and 91W, and 
from 01N to 11.5N between 91W and 103W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 103W
and 116W and within 300 nm S of a line from 19N119W to 18N122W to 
11.5N128W to 09N137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well
north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, 
then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate northerly 
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja 
California waters. N to NE gap winds across Tehuantepec have 
become moderate to fresh this afternoon and extend to near 15N, 
where seas are 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW 
to S winds continue across the northern Gulf of California, where
seas are 3 ft or less. Light to gentle winds are ongoing 
elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the 
remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW 
swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, the surface ridge extending into the region will
drift SW and weaken through early Sun, producing gentle to 
moderate winds across the Baja California waters, becoming
locally fresh along the coasts each evening. As the remnants of
Tropical Storm Douglas shift W of 135W on Sun, the ridge will
build modestly across the Baja waters to produce moderate to
fresh NW to N winds across those area waters Sun and Mon. NW 
swell moving across the Baja waters will maintain moderate seas 
through through the weekend, as it mixes with cross- equatorial 
SW swell. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the 
Tehuantepec region through Sun.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo 
region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across
this area. Gentle southerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama.
Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial 
SW swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to 
SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and 
Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Scattered to numerous strong 
convection continues across the waters N of 04.5N from Colombia 
to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and 
locally rough seas.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will persist across 
the offshore waters through at least Sun as a pair of tropical 
waves move through the region. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds
will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading 
to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will 
dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to 
the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft near the 
Galapagos Islands Sun night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm
Douglas.

A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well
north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, 
then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm 
to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere
south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 
ft seas in N swell prevail north of 17N and west of 120W, 
outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near
Douglas and the areas of convection described above. Mixed SE and
cross-equatorial SW swell are producing seas of 7 to 8 ft S of 
05N and W of 130W.

For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally
persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will 
move N-NW to near 18.8N 127.6W around midnight tonight, then weaken
to a 30 kt remnant low near 20.0N 128.1W midday Fri, and 
continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late Sun 
or Mon.

$$
Stripling