000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220737
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jul 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 112W from 03N northward to 
17N just south-southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, moving 
slowly westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 08N to 13.5N between 110W and 115.5W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 138W from 07N to 20N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection has dissipated in the
past several hours.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09.5N76W
to across Costa Rica to 07N98.5W to 09N112W to 07N127W to
10N134W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 03N to 09N between 77W and 80.5W, and from 02N to 10N
between 80.5W and 95.5W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09.5N between 115.5W and 122W and from 07.5N to
13N between 124W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the central to northern Gulf of 
California northward with high pressure ridging to the west of 
Baja California. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting 
moderate NW for the waters near Baja California and slightly 
weaker more offshore. This pressure pattern is also supporting 
fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf of California. 
Fresh to strong N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 
moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters 
offshore Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec,
4 to 6 ft offshore SW Mexico, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 
to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft in the northern Gulf 
where the stronger winds are.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf
of California will diminish in the next few hours, with moderate
to fresh winds thereafter through tonight. Pulsing fresh to 
locally strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec into Wed night as a diurnal surface trough is 
expected to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. 
Winds will then pulse to moderate to fresh there thereafter. 
Winds are likely to freshen west of Baja California by mid-week 
as the pressure gradient tightens slightly, then increase to 
fresh to strong mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the
week and into the weekend. Winds may build to around 8 ft there 
by the start of the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate
southerly winds are over the waters south of the monsoon trough 
with light and variable winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough per the same ASCAT data. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in S to SW 
swell south of the monsoon trough, and 4 to 6 ft north of the 
monsoon trough. Very active convection with intense lightning 
possible is south of the monsoon trough as described above.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to 
east winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Thu, then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala mid-week. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south
of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will
subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 22N and 114W. A pair of tropical waves are south of the 
ridge as described above, one near 138W and one near 112W. Winds
near and west of the 138W wave are fresh to strong with seas of 8
to 10 ft in the vicinity. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere
from roughly 10N to 20N and west of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. 
Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are moderate, except 
locally fresh west of 130W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in southeast 
to south swell, except to around 8 ft near the Equator at 140W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 138W will 
move west of 140W later today with associated winds accompanying
it and shifting west of the area by tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft 
will linger in the wake of the tropical wave through mid-week as 
the other tropical wave, currently near 112W moves westward. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will linger from north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N through the week until the 
second tropical wave exits, with little change in winds elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky