907 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220408
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Central East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the 
Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
this weekend or early next week before it interacts, or possibly 
merges with, the disturbance to its east. This system has a 
high chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a
high chance through 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more 
details on these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical 
Pacific basin with axis along 92W, N of 03N, moving westward at 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 03N to 15N between 86W and 100W. 

A broad area of low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis 
near 107W. This system is moving west-northwestward and could 
become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week 
before it interacts, or possibly merges with, the disturbance to 
its west (Invest EP91). Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 100W and 116W. This 
system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48
hrs, and a medium chance through 7 days.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 10N110W to 07N140W. 
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves 
described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from 04N to 13N between 113W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. 
Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of 
California. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined with
a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, supports 
fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
downwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. 
Fresh E to SE are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico 
associated with the tropical wave near 107W.

For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse
to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight
into the early morning hours through Sun night, with seas occasionally
building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting mainly
gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will return to the
Gulf of California Sat night and become fresh to locally strong
over the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun. Winds and seas
are expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern
Mexico into early next week in association with a developing area
of low pressure moving west-northwestward and just outside of the
offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to near 89W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas 
in S swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf
of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading
to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo
region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending
well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore 
of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. 
South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will
persist this weekend into early next week. Mainly moderate seas 
will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo the next several 
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves 
section above for information on systems that have the potential
for tropical cyclone formation. 

High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward
into the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. Fresh 
easterly winds and seas to 7 ft in the periphery of Tropical 
Storm Moke in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters
between 13N to 25N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally
fresh winds are found between 100W and 110W, from the outer 
border of the SW Mexican offshores to the monsoon with moderate 
to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the
features described above are forecast to bring increasing winds 
and seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W
this weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions
elsewhere.

Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is expected to develop
well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula 
during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is 
expected thereafter while the system moves generally west- 
northwestward. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone
formation through 7 days.

$$
Ramos