000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161554
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move
southeastward across the NW waters, behind a cold front which 
extends from 30N122W to 19.5N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater 
have reached as far S as 23N to the W of 128W, with peak seas 
currently around 17 ft near 29N138W, as recently shown in satellite
altimeter data. Rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to
propagate southeastward and reach the waters N of 21N and W of 
121W by this evening, then begin to slowly subside, with seas 12 
ft and greater N of 23N and W of 118W by early Tue. Seas will 
then continue to subside to less than 12 ft Tue evening, before 
new N swell enters the northern waters by early Wed, raising 
seas above 12 ft across the waters N of 29N between 120W and 135W
Wed morning, and spreading southward through Thu. Please refer 
to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 09N77W to 05.5N80W to 03.5N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03.5N90W to 01N111W to 03N131W to beyond 00N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07.5N and E of
87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 09N between 125W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weakening high pressure just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands continues
to produce a broad ridge south-southeastward from offshore Baja 
California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while elongated 
troughing remains just inland across western Mexico. Strong northerly
winds to 30 kt have developed overnight in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, due to a cold front moving through the Bay of 
Campeche to the N, and building high pressure across the Gulf of
Mexico behind the front. Mostly W to NW winds are across the 
most of the offshore waters, from Baja Norte to Puerto Angel.
Ahead of an approaching cold front reaching along 122W, fresh to
strong southerly winds are now occurring across the far western
offshore waters of Baja Norte to the N of Punta Eugenia, and
fresh to locally strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of 
California. NW swell is moving out ahead of the front, and has 
begun to enter the offshore waters of Baja Norte, where seas are
now 7 to 9 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, while seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail across the remainder of the Baja California waters and W
of 110W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewehre. Seas in the northern Gulf of 
California have built to 3 to 5 ft in recent hours.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves by to 
the N through the Bay of Campeche with high pressure building 
behind it. Those winds will persist into early Tue before 
diminishing. A cold front will approach Baja California later
today with troughing ahead of it supporting fresh to near gale- 
force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California later this
morning through early Tue, with similar winds early Wed as the 
actual front shifts by. Fresh to strong SW-W winds offshore Baja 
California N of Punta Eugenia will be ahead of the front late
tonight, diminishing by early Tue. High pressure will build in 
across the waters offshore Baja California in the wake of the 
front, with fresh to locally strong winds nearshore Baja 
California to near Cabo Corrientes by mid-week. New rough to 
very rough NW swell will move into the waters offshore Baja
California later today through Wed, getting reinforced Wed night
through the end of the week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds prevail across the Papagayo
region, while moderate northerly winds are occurring across the
Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula.
Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft from 
offshore Colombia northwestward, and 4 to 5 ft offshore Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands, and downwind of Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will
persist across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong
this evening as high pressure builds across Central America. 
Those winds will continue to pulse through at least early Thu, 
then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally 
fresh N-NE winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama to near the 
Azuero Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the 
next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.

A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters,
extending from 30N122W to 19.5N140W. Fresh to strong NW to N 
winds and building seas are behind the front, while fresh to
strong southerly winds prevail E of the front, N of 24N and W of
118W. Weakening 1015 mb high pressure prevails ahead of the 
front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are from 07N to 16N 
between 110W and 140W with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. 
Seas are 5 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell prevail N of the ITCZ
to 15N and W of 120W, and are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of 
the open waters ahead of the front. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms have developed near the ITCZ, from 01N to
09N between 125W and 137W. 

For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell 
entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds
behind it will reach from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early
Tue. Winds N of 20N behind the front will gradually diminish 
from W to E tonight through Tue as the front weakens and 
continues moving eastward, before gradually dissipating. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue through Thu as a
low to middle-level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W.
This scenario will produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of 
the ITCZ to 24N and W of 120W late Tue through early Fri, Expect 
active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas 
in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.

$$
Stripling