409 
AXPZ20 KNHC 042207
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W from the western Gulf 
of Tehuantepec southward to 06N, and moving westward at 5 to 10 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 14N 
between 90W and 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends westward from a 1009 mb low pressure 
located near northwestern Colombia across northern Nicaragua to
11N108W, then turns southwestward to 07N126W. An ITCZ continues 
westward from 07N126W to beyond 08N140W. Besides the convection
related to the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from 05N to 11N east of 90W, and
from 09N to 15N between 98W and 109W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted farther west up to 150 nm south and 50 nm
north of the monsoon trough between 117W and 127W, and also up to
90 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge continues to support gentle to moderate NW
winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in moderate NW to N swell west of 
Baja California, near the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo 
Corrientes. Mainly gentle S to SW winds with 4 to 5 ft seas exist
in the offshore waters of southern Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will pulse 
offshore of Baja California Sur and in southern portions of the 
Gulf of California nightly through this weekend as troughing 
prevails over the region. Elsewhere, moderate to rough seas 
offshore of Baja California Norte will subside to moderate by Thu
afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms are associated with a tropical wave located a few 
hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression will 
likely form over the weekend as it moves generally westward to 
west-northwestward around 10 mph. There is a low chance of 
formation within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the 
next 7 days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the
region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
are evident across the offshore waters of central America and
Colombia. Moderate S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate SW 
swell are seen near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a building cross equatorial swell will promote
locally rough seas well offshore of Ecuador tonight through Thu,
with seas diminishing thereafter. Moderate to occasionally fresh
S to SW winds are anticipated south of the monsoon trough 
through this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to 
SE winds are expected from the Gulf of Papagayo through the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu through this 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the
region. A broad ridge extends southeastward from a 1037 mb high near
42N142W to just south of the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature
is channeling moderate to locally fresh NNE to NE winds with 7 
to 11 ft seas north of 09N and west of 126W. Gentle to moderate N
to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate north of 09N between 
115W and 126W. South of 09N and west of 120W, mainly gentle SW to
S winds with seas at 5 to 6 ft are found near the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough. East of 126W and south of 15N, gentle to moderate S to 
WSW winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail 
near and south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will 
occur north of 25N and west of 125W into early Fri as a strong 
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
troughing to the east. Rough seas will continue north of 22N and
west of 124W through tonight, with seas subsiding from south to 
north Thu through Fri. Elsewhere, pockets of fresh NE winds are 
expected just north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through Thu. 
Looking ahead, the tropical wave mentioned at the beginning
section will move generally westward to west-northwestward around
10 mph. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
will likely form over the weekend. There is a low (10%) chance 
of formation within the next 48 hours, and a high (80%) chance 
within the next 7 days. 

$$

ADAMS/CHAN