320 
AXPZ20 KNHC 280247
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Western East Pacific: A low pressure area has formed well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, analyzed near 10N130W, 1011 
mb. While the associated thunderstorm activity is currently 
disorganized, gradual development of this system is possible 
during the next couple of days while it moves generally westward 
around 10 kt. Tropical formation chance through 48 hours is 
medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 87W from 05N northward through 
Honduras and into the western Caribbean, moving westward around 
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
vicinity of the wave.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 117W from 02N to 19N, moving 
westward around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 05N to 15N between 113W to 122W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N113W to beyond 
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N 
between 81W and 113W, and from 06N to 16N and W of 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface troughing extends through the Gulf of California, and 
high pressure prevails over the Baja California waters. The 
pressure gradient between these features is leading to moderate 
to fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San 
Lazaro, as observed on recent scatterometer satellite data. 
Recent altimeter satellite data show moderate seas in this 
region. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N gap winds and moderate seas 
are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as observed on 
altimeter data, as a tightening pressure gradient develops 
between troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure 
over east- central Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail over 
the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Moderate seas in 
mixed S and NW swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico, with 
slight seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, outside of the Special Feature low described
above, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high 
pressure builds over eastern Mexico and the Gulf of America. 
Strong NE to E winds and rough seas will extend beyond the 
Tehuantepec region by early Tue as the aforementioned low 
strengthens to the south. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW winds 
are expected each afternoon and night offshore of Baja California
through midweek as high pressure builds to the west. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data show fresh E winds prevail in the Gulf
of Papagayo and across the El Salvador and Guatemala waters as 
low pressure prevails over northern Colombia and a tropical wave 
moves westward through Central America. South of the monsoon 
trough, generally moderate S to SW winds are occurring. Moderate
seas prevail over the Central and South American waters, as 
observed on latest altimeter data. 

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds and moderate seas will occur
in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon morning as low pressure 
prevails over northern Colombia. Fresh E winds will extend 
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through 
late Mon as an area of low pressure develops and strengthens to 
the southwest. Winds in this region will diminish by midweek. 
Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to strong winds look to redevelop in
the Gulf of Papagayo late this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the low pres with
potential to become a tropical system within the next 48 hrs.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough to 25N as ridging prevails to the north. Fresh winds and 
moderate seas are noted near a tropical wave analyzed near 
117W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in the northern 
waters, north of 25N, is leading to light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, another area of low pressure is forecast to 
form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a 
couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form late this week as the system moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a low chance of 
development of this system within the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance within the next 7 days. Elsewhere, widespread moderate to
fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected north of the 
monsoon trough this week as high pressure builds to the north. 

$$
ERA