000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150030
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the 
waters N of 06N and W of 116W will be reinforced tonight through
Tue with new large NW swell generated behind a cold front 
over the NW waters. This new NW swell is increasing seas in 
excess of 12 ft across the NW waters now, with seas building to 
12 to 18 ft N of 24N and W of 131W by Sun evening, then continue 
to propagate southeastward and cover the area N of 22N and W of 
121W with seas of 12 to 19 ft by Mon evening. Seas will then 
begin to subside to near 12 ft Tue through Tue evening before 
new N swell enters the northern waters Wed morning, raising seas 
above 12 ft again Wed through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 10N85W to 02N1040W. The ITCZ extends from 
02N104W to 00.5N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 84W
and 93W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N 
between 134.5W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad and weakening high pressure ridge prevails across the 
waters. Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters.
Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are offshore Baja California N of Punta
Eugenia with moderate seas elsewhere except slight in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area will 
drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse, ahead of a
cold front moving into the waters near 140W this evening. 
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse on either side of Baja 
California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through Sun night, then 
again starting Tue. The cold front will approach Baja California 
Norte Mon night with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it in the 
northern Gulf of California, and west of Baja Norte through early
Tue. These winds will diminish as the front moves through Baja 
California and the northern Gulf of California and gradually 
dissipates on Tue. High pressure building across the region 
behind the front will produce fresh to strong northerly winds N 
of 20N Wed through Thu. NW swell moving across the Baja
California Norte waters will peak tonight then gradually subside
through early Mon. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters
W of 110W Mon through Wed, with seas building to 12 ft and 
greater N of Punta Eugenia Mon night through Tue evening. Fresh 
to strong gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun 
night through Tue morning before diminishing.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue across the Papagayo 
region. This is generating seas to near 7 ft offshore. Moderate 
N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama and the Azuero 
Peninsula, where seas continue at 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker 
winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and locally rough
seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early Sun, 
then pulse to moderate to fresh into early next week. Fresh to 
strong winds may return there Tue through Wed as high pressure 
builds across the NW Caribbean. Moderate N to NE winds will
generally continue across the Gulf of Panama through the middle
of next week, pulsing to locally fresh each late afternoon into
the night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas will change little through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.

A cold front is over the NW waters, extending from 30N132.5W to
26N140W. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are behind the
front, up to 12 ft near 30N140W. Weak and broad high pressure
prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
from 06N to 18N between 110W and 140W with moderate or weaker
winds elsewhere. Seas are rough or greater N of 07N and W of 118W
and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell 
expected to enter the NW waters this evening, the cold front 
will reach from 30N128W to 23N140W by Sun morning, with fresh to
strong winds behind it, then reach from 30N123W to 19N140W Mon
morning, and from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue, 
with winds N of 20N behind it diminishing as the front weakens. 
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and the belt of
moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ will increase to at least
fresh to strong early next week. Active showers and
thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell will 
accompany these increasing trades.

$$
Lewitsky