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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 211608

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1418 UTC Wed Aug 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 


The low pressure previously located about 250 nm south of Manzanillo,
Mexico has been upgraded to Tropical Depression TEN-E at 21/1500
UTC. At this time, it is centered near 15.4N 107.3W moving WNW or
285 degrees at 16 kt. A turn to the northwest along with a decrease 
in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next couple
of days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
by tonight, and a hurricane by Friday. This tropical cyclone is 
forecast to move parallel and very close to the western end of 
the offshore forecast waters. As a result, part of its circulation
will continue to affect these waters. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 150 nm W semicircle. Numerous moderate
isolated strong is observed elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 
105W and 110W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 


A tropical wave is along 94W N of 05N. This wave extends across 
the Bay of Campeche and SE Mexico into the EPAC region, and is
generating scattered moderate convection from 10N to 16N between
94W and 96.5W...including the Tehuantepec area.


The monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pres over northern
Colombia to 08N80W to 12N94W to 15N104W, then continues W of 
Tropical Depression TEN-E from 13N110W to 15N122W to 11N140W. a
cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is N of 05N E
of 80W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated
strong is from 11N to 17N between 98W and 104W. Similar convection
is also noted from 10N to 15N W of 130W.


Please see the Special Features section for details about
recently upgraded Tropical Depression TEN-E. 

The pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the 
area and low pressure across the northern Gulf of California is 
producing fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore of Baja 
California N of 28N E of 120W. This is expected to continue 
before retreating to the NW late this afternoon and evening.
These winds will bring seas to 8 ft N of 28N between 120W and 
123W on Thu. Low pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will induce 
fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of 
California this evening through Fri.

A middle to upper level trough extending from the SW Gulf of 
Mexico WSW across central Mexico has maintained unstable upper 
level conditions and is supporting ongoing moderate to strong 
convection across the waters from Cabo Corrientes to the 
Mazatlan area. The trough will remain in place through tonight 
and is expected to support another round of late afternoon and 
night time convection across this area. 


A weak pressure gradient is expected to produce only gentle to 
moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long 
period cross equatorial SW swell will reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today, building seas to 6 to 7 
ft late today into Thu. 


A 1020 mb high pressure located near 31N134W extends a ridge 
across the northern forecast waters. This system will remain 
nearly stationary over the next 48 hours producing mainly gentle 
to moderate winds N of 20N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough will result in moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds S of 20N. The low pressure center previously located 
along the monsoon trough near 16N123.5W has opened up into a 
trough that now extends along 128W. A small area of seas to 8 ft
are still noted near the trough axis. Elsewhere winds are 
expected to increase S of the monsoon trough, particularly 
between 105W and 120W, in response to the strengthening of T.D. 
TEN-E. As the monsoon through continues to lift northward fresh 
to strong SW monsoonal winds will create wind waves that will 
combine with SW swell to produce seas of up to 10 or 11 ft S of 
15N between 100W and 120W through Thursday night.