002 
AXPZ20 KNHC 050318
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W from the western Gulf 
of Tehuantepec southward to 06N, and moving westward at 5 to 10 
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring
near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 09N between 
93W and 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends westward from a 1008 mb low pressure 
located over northern Colombia to 11N96W to 10N110W to 08N121W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N121W to 07N130W to 08N135W to 07N140W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found 
from 06N to 10N between 81W and 88W, and from 10N to 14N between
102W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to
12N W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1034 mb located well N of area extends a ridge 
SE across the offshore waters of Baja California, reaching the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressures inland Mexico supports light to gentle NW 
winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate NW winds S of
Cabo San Lazaro. However, fresh to locally strong NW winds are 
noted per recent scatterometer data in the vicinity of Cabo San 
Lucas. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in Nw swell. In the Gulf of 
California, light SW to W winds and slight seas are noted, except
gentle to moderate southerly winds over the northern part of the
Gulf. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are observed near the entrance to the 
Gulf. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are parallel to the coast
between Jalisco and Guerrero with moderate seas. Elsewhere 
across the Mexican offshore waters, light westerly winds and 
moderate seas in SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will pulse 
offshore of Baja California Sur and in southern portions of the 
Gulf of California nightly through this weekend as troughing 
prevails over the region. Elsewhere, moderate to rough seas 
offshore of Baja California Norte will subside to moderate by Thu
afternoon. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the 
weekend while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward 
around 10 kt. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
within the next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area, resulting in 
gentle to moderate southerly winds south of 06N, and light to 
gentle winds N of 06N. Cross-equatorial SW swell is producing 
moderate seas across the forecast waters.

For the forecast, mainly moderate S to SW winds will occur south
of the monsoon trough through this weekend, with gentle to 
locally moderate winds expected to the north. Moderate seas in 
cross-equatorial swell are likely over the regional waters into 
this weekend. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds in
the Gulf of Papagayo Thu night to Fri night as a ridge prevails 
N of the area. Abundant tropical moisture will persist across 
the region increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
through at least Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A 1034 mb high pressure system is centered across the NE Pacific
well north of the area near 42N142W, and extends a ridge 
southward over the forecast region, covering most of the waters N
of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. This system is generating
gentle to moderate winds over the forecast waters, with the 
exception of moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the NW waters, 
particularly N of 26N and W of 130W. Rough seas in N swell are 
affecting the waters N of 18N W of 120W. 

For the forecast, fresh N to NE winds will occur north of 25N 
and west of 125W into early Fri as a strong pressure gradient 
prevails between high pressure to the north and troughing to the 
east. The swell event, generated by strong to gale force N winds
between the above mentioned high pressure and lower pressures 
over central California, will continue to propagate across the 
northern forecast waters through Fri, then slowly subside by Fri
night. Elsewhere, pockets of fresh NE winds are expected just 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through Thu. 

$$
GR