132 
AXPZ20 KNHC 280328
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 11.9N 112.7W at 28/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms extend 240 nm in the NW
and 120 nm SE semicircles. Karina is moving toward the west- 
northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over 
the next several days, reaching its closest point of approach to
Clarion Island late Fri night into early Sat. Strengthening is 
anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over 
the weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin
to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.4N 133.5W at 28/0300
UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm in
the SW semicircle and 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Lowell is 
moving toward the east-northeast, with a westward motion 
expected by Saturday. Strengthening is likely during the next 
several days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday. 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 90W north of 06N into El
Salvador and Guatemala, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt.
Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W north of 03N to near 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. 
Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 09N107W, and
from 12N117W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection near
Karina and Lowell, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active from 05N to 115N between 85W and 120W, and
from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina.

Winds are likely starting to increase along with building seas just
south of the Revillagigedo Islands ahead of T.S. Karina. Fresh to
strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas persist elsewhere over
the offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, Karina will move to 12.9N 114.1W Fri morning, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 14.3N 115.5W Fri evening, and to  
15.7N 117.2W by Sat morning, southwest of Clarion Island. Karina
will move to 17.0N 118.8W Sat evening, 17.8N 120.5W Sun morning,
and 18.3N 122.3W Sun evening. Karina will change little in 
intensity as it continues to move W-NW to 18.8N 125.4W by late 
Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough 
seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh 
thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly 
winds is possible associated with convective complexes may move 
up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat 
nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast 
to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week while it moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds 
and seas along a similar path to Karina. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist the Gulf of Papagayo 
downwind to near 10N90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Winds are 
moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate 
seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern 
Panama. Very active showers and thunderstorms are present over 
the outer offshore waters areas of the offshore waters from 
Colombia northward as described in the monsoon trough section 
above with locally higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming
weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.
Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to 
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly
winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into 
early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with 
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the 
monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm
Lowell.

The remnant 1008 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 24N128W 
with fresh to strong winds around rough seas within 180 nm in the
northwest quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or 
weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north
and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms 
and Post- Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround
Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 105W and 120W. 
Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move Karina will move to 12.9N 114.1W Fri morning, strengthen to
a hurricane near 14.3N 115.5W Fri evening, 15.7N 117.2W Sat
morning, 17.0N 118.8W Sat evening, 17.8N 120.5W Sun morning, and
18.3N 122.3W Sun evening. Karina will change little in intensity
as it moves to 18.8N 125.4W late Mon. Tropical Storm Lowell will
move Lowell will move to 11.8N 133.0W Fri morning, 12.3N 133.2W
Fri evening, 12.5N 134.3W Sat morning, 12.7N 135.8W Sat evening,
12.9N 137.5W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near
13.2N 139.3W Sun evening. Lowell will change little in intensity
as it moves west of 140W late Mon. The remnant low of Iselle 
will gradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend 
while remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest 
to 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Large 
southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through 
tonight before decaying and becoming confined to a large area 
around developing Karina. Looking ahead, much larger and more 
expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by 
early next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast 
to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week while it moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds 
and seas along a similar path to Karina.

$$
Christensen