000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071554
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Amanda is centered near 11.5N 135.4W at 1500
UTC, moving southwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts
to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 3 m, or 10 ft, within 45 
nm across the western semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring within 120 nm across the NW
semicircle of center. A gradual turn toward the west- southwest 
is expected Sunday or Sunday night. Amanda should weaken further 
and become a remnant low late this afternoon or evening.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP91):
The broad and elongated cyclonic circulation offshore of south
and southwestern Mexico has been classified as Tropical
Depression Two-E this morning. Recent satellite scatterometer
data showed a closed circulation offshore of Acapulco, and
numerous bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are showing
improved organization. At 1500 UTC, the center of T.D. Two-E was
located near 15.5N 99.9W, moving toward the NE at 5 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Peak seas are near 3.5 m or 11.5 ft,
across southern portions of the circulation. Numerous bands of
moderate to strong convection surround this large circulation
within 270 nm, and extend inland along the coasts of Guerrero and 
Oaxaca. T.D. Two-E is expected to move slowly northward and to the 
Mexican coastline within the next day or so. Some strengthening is 
likely, however the broad circulation of this system may make any 
rapid intensification difficult. Heavy rainfall associated with this 
system will impact portions of southern Mexico during the next few 
days, and likely produce like threatening flooding and mudslides. 
Large southern hemispheric SW swell will enter the area waters Sun 
night through Mon and combine with the large wind generated waves 
from Two-E to create extremely rough and dangerous seas in the 
coastal zone. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

Offshore of Central America:
Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms associated
with an elongated area of low pressure along the monsoon trough 
offshore of Central America continues this morning, from western 
Colombia to the offshore waters south of Guatemala. Fresh to strong 
monsoonal westerly winds are increasing to the south of this system, 
and S of 10N. Environmental conditions remains conducive for 
development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or two, while the system moves slowly northward toward the 
coast of Central America. Interests along the Pacific coasts of 
northwestern Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador should 
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall and life- threatening flash flooding are possible 
across portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala 
through early next week. Currently, this system has a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest 
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for updates.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 1008 mb low pres near 
11.5N88.5W to 14N97W, then resumes from 09.5N104W to 07N124W to 
09N132W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N 
to 10N E of 90W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection 
dominates from 01S to 12.5N E of 93W, and from 06N to 18N between 
93W and 105W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 105W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high 
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 35N148W to west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands near 18N126W. Broad low pressure extends
from southern California south-southwestward across Baja Norte. 
This pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW winds with 6 to 
7 ft seas in mixed NW and SW swell across waters near Baja 
California, the Revillagigedo Islands and central Mexico, and
higher seas 7 to 9 ft in N swell across the outer waters of Baja
Norte. Fresh to locally strong NW to W winds with locally higher
seas are present just south of Cabo San Jose. Tropical 
Depression Two-E has formed offshore of Acapulco, within a broad
and larger cyclonic circulation offshore of southern Mexico. This
system is producing fresh to strong monsoonal SW to W winds 
with 7 to 10 ft seas in large SW swell offshore of southern 
Mexico. The entire area E of 104W and Michoacan is dominated by
numerous bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong S to SW winds are 
expected in the northern Gulf of California until tonight. A 
broad surface ridge will sustain gentle to moderate NW winds near 
Baja Norte until Mon evening, and Baja Sur and the Revillagigedo 
Islands through Wed. The exception will be fresh to locally strong 
NW to W winds persisting just south of Cabo San Jose through Tue 
evening. From Mon night through Tue night, a frontal system moving 
into southern California is going to bring moderate to fresh NW 
winds, and moderate to rough seas off Baja Norte. Afterward, the 
combination of merging NW and S-SW swell will prolong moderate to 
rough seas west of Baja Norte into midweek next week, and impact 
waters near Baja Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands early Mon through 
Wed. T.D. Two-E and the associated wet and windy monsoonal system it 
is embedded within will shift northward toward the coast through Sun 
night and then inland on Mon, with large SW swell combining with 
rough wind driven seas producing dangerous marine conditions. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
across the near and offshore waters of Central America are 
associated with an active monsoon trough, and a developing area 
of low pressure along 8.5W. Please, see the Special Features 
section for more details.

A weak surface pressure pattern dominates the region. Recent
satellite scatterometer data indicated that a weak low pressure 
center is beginning to develop along 88.5W, while the monsoon 
trough has lifted to near 11N. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds 
prevail across most of the area south of the trough, except fresh
to strong S of the developing low. Gentle to moderate winds are 
generally N of the trough. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in SW swell 
dominate the offshore waters of Central America W of 85W, and are 5 
to 7 ft E of 85W. New southern hemispheric SW swell has begun to 
reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 
producing seas of 7 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, new large SW swell will surge across the 
Central America offshore waters today through early Tue. As a 
result, moderate seas will quickly become rough by this evening, 
and then very rough by Mon morning, building to around 11 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos. At the same time, convergent 
monsoonal winds will generate periods of heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms across the regional offshore waters at least into 
early next week. Developing low pressure south of El Salvador and
Guatemala will gradually strengthen the monsoonal SW to W winds 
across the offshore waters of Central America through Mon 
evening. Therefore, anticipate moderate to fresh SW to W winds 
across the southern offshore waters to become fresh to strong by 
this afternoon, and then strong to near-gale while expanding 
northward on Mon. For offshore waters from Costa Rica 
southwestward to near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate 
southerly winds along with rough seas in SW swell will prevail 
through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on  
Tropical Depression Amanda located across the Tropical Pacific W 
of 130W.

A broad ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high 
northeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 34N148W to west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands near 18N126W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and T.D. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E
winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas across the waters north of 12N 
and W of 130W, except seas are reaching 8 to 10 ft near Amanda. 
Enhanced by a surface trough to the north, moderate to fresh N 
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found north of 24N between 120W 
and 130W. Mainly gentle winds with seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed NW 
and SW swells prevail across the remaining waters north of the 
monsoon trough and east of 130W. South of the monsoon trough and 
west of 120W, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 7 to 10 ft 
seas in large SW swell are evident. Fresh to strong SW to W 
monsoonal winds and 8 to 13 ft seas in new SW swell are moving
into the waters south of the monsoon trough to near the Equator 
and east of 120W. Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 9
to 12 ft in SW swell prevail the rest of the waters south of the
Equator.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will drift
westward and weaken slightly across the area through Mon as 
Amanda tracks southwestward over the western portion of the 
area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade 
wind zone. Larger S to SW will move N of the equator this 
morning and through the regional waters through early next week,
reaching to 20N tonight through Mon. Northerly swell in the 
north-central waters will produce seas of 7 to 10 ft for the next
several days. Fresh to strong monsoonal SW to W winds should 
gradually shift northward tonight through Mon evening. 10 to 12 
ft seas will peak between 12 and 14 ft tonight through Mon night 
before gradually subsiding Tue through Wed.
 
$$
Stripling