000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 10N104W to
06N128W. The ITCZ continues from 06N129W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 09N 
E of 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N
between 101W and 127W, and from 03N to 08N W of 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California extending SE to the Revillagigedo Islands continue to 
support gentle to moderate NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro and
moderate to fresh NW winds S of Cabo San Lazaro per recent
scatterometer data. Altimeter data confirmed moderate seas to 6
ft across the Baja Peninsula offshore waters. A surface trough 
along the Gulf of California is generating moderate to locally 
fresh SW winds over the northern portion of the Gulf with 5 ft 
seas. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the
remainder of the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable 
winds prevail with moderate seas, except slight in the southern
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California 
through the remainder weekend, supporting moderate to fresh NW 
winds and moderate seas. A low pres is forecast to approach the
northern Gulf of California this evening, producing fresh to 
strong S to SW winds over the northern Gulf. Rough seas generated
by fresh to strong northerly winds offshore California will 
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Sun night into Mon. Building 
seas to around 9 ft are expected. This swell will stay mainly N 
of Punta Eugenia before subsiding Tue night. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail 
elsewhere through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are across the Central America offshore
waters while gentle to moderate S winds are ongoing between the
coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate seas to 7 
ft in SW swell are across both regions. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the Central 
America offshore waters associated with the monsoon trough. 
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are possible with the 
strongest thunderstorms over the Panama offshore waters. 

For the forecast, abundant moisture drawn in by a very moist and
unstable southerly wind flow will persist across the offshore 
waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through late
Sun, supporting the development and continuation of scattered
heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Light
to gentle winds are forecast across the Central America offshore
waters through Thu night. Gentle to moderate S winds will 
prevail between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
along with moderate seas in SW swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

High pressure of 1032 mb located NW of area near 33N144W and its
associated ridge continue to affect the subtropical and tropical
Pacific waters W of 127W with moderate to fresh NE to E winds per
recent scatterometer data. Altimeter data show seas across these
waters are moderate, except rough to 10 ft W of 132W. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted elsewhere in a mix 
of swell.

For the forecast, a slightly tight pressure gradient will 
continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the
ITCZ and W of 120W through mid-week, although moderate to fresh
trades are forecast to continue over the tropical waters through
Thu night. The northerly swell will combine with the wind waves 
to keep and area of rough seas to 10 ft over the west-central 
waters through Tue night. A new swell event will reach the NE
subtropical waters Sun night, building seas to around 10 ft N of
25N between 120W and 130W by Mon night. This swell is forecast to
subside by Thu morning.  

$$
Ramos