000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282054
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low (EP98): Scattered moderate convection
associated with low pressure centered near 11N133W has decreased
today and is now confined mainly SW of the center, from 07N to
10N between 133W and 138W. Closer to the low, fresh to strong
winds and rough seas prevail. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression may
form during the next day or two as the low moves W at 5 to 10 kt
and enter the Central Pacific basin around midweek. There is a 
medium chance of development of this system within the next 48 
hours.

Tropical Wave South of SW Mexico (EP99): A broad area of 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in association 
with a tropical wave is noted from 09N to 14N between 97W and 
105W. The axis of the tropical wave is along 98W and is moving 
WNW at around 15 kt. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas
are also developing near and behind the axis of this wave. Low 
pressure is forecast to organize along this wave tonight, and 
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development of this low. A tropical depression is likely to form 
during the middle part of this week while the low trades WNW or 
NW well offshore SW Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical 
formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the 
next 7 days. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is emerging from Central America into the eastern
Pacific along 84W, southward from Coast Rica to around 05N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between
84W and 87W. 

A tropical wave is analyzed near 120W from 03N to 19N, moving 
westward around 5 kt. Weak low pressure of 1012 mb has developed
where this wave is intersecting the monsoon trough around 
12N120W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between
117W to 124W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 13N114W to beyond 
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N
between 91W and 97W and from 05N to 15N between 105W and 114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for information on low
pressure developing SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec that has the
possibility of tropical formation this week.

Surface troughing extends through the Gulf of California, and 
high pressure prevails over the Baja California waters. The 
pressure gradient between these features is leading to fresh NW 
winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Moderate seas are also present in this region. Elsewhere, strong
N gap winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, as a tightening pressure gradient develops between 
troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure over east-
central Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail over the 
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Moderate seas in mixed S
and NW swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico, with slight 
seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high 
pressure builds over eastern Mexico and the pressure gradient 
tightens as a result of the low pressure forming to the SW.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo as the pressure
gradient between higher pressure to the northern and low pressure
to the south funnels gap winds across Central America into the
Pacific. South of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle S to SW 
winds are occurring. Moderate seas prevail over the Central and 
South American waters.

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds and moderate seas will occur
in the Gulf of Papagayo and extend through the waters offshore 
El Salvador and Guatemala tonight as low pressure prevails over 
northern Colombia and another area of low pressure develops and 
strengthens to the west. After a brief lull, pulsing fresh to 
strong winds look to redevelop in the Gulf of Papagayo late this 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
two areas of possible tropical development this week. 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough to 25N as ridging prevails to the north. Elsewhere, a 
weak pressure gradient in the northern waters, north of 25N, is 
leading to light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough this week
as high pressure builds to the north. 

$$
Konarik