Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161518
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1436 UTC Tue Jul 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis near 93W from 03N to 15N is moving 
west around 15 kt. A broad cyclonic surface circulation is 
associated with this wave and a low is analyzed to have formed
near 09N93W along the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 88W-95W. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for 
gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression 
could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of
Mexico. 

A tropical wave with axis near 113W from 03N to 17N is moving 
west around 15 kt. The system is identifiable as a maximum in the
total precipitable water as well as GFS- and ECMWF-based 700 mb
trough diagnostics. No significant deep convection is currently
occurring in association with this wave.

A tropical wave with axis near 133W from 03N to 15N is moving 
west around 15 kt. The system is identifiable as a maximum in 
the total precipitable water as well as GFS- and ECMWF-based 700 
mb trough diagnostics. No significant deep convection is 
currently occurring in association with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 mb low at 10N81W over
the SW Caribbean Sea to a 1000 mb low near 09N93W to 10N128W. 
The ITCZ extends from 10N128W to 10N132W, then resumes from 
09N134W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection noted in
association with waves above, scattered moderate convection is
occurring within 180 nm of the trough between 95W and 105W as
well as within 180 nm south of the trough from 115W to 120W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A surface high well west of California is contributing to 
quiescent winds over most of the Mexican offshore zones through 
Sat. A complex low pressure system over the U.S. Great Basin is 
forcing SE fresh to strong breeze over the central and northern 
Gulf of California today and Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of
Mexico combined with the monsoon trough will force a N fresh to 
strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through
Sat morning. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact 
the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. No 
significant long period-swell should affect the area through at 
least Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is 
forcing NE to E winds up to strong breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo
through at least Sat. Elsewhere E winds should remain moderate 
or weaker north of the monsoon trough along 10N, and S to SW 
moderate breeze or weaker south of the trough. No tropical 
cyclone activity is expected to impact the Central America 
offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long-
period swell should affect the area through at least Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A 1025 mb high centered just northwest of our area at 33N143W
combined with low pressure along the monsoon trough/ITCZ is
contributing toward moderate to fresh NE tradewinds for the next
several days. Environmental conditions for the 1008 mb low near 
09N93W are forecast to become conducive for gradual development 
later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the 
weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico. No 
significant long period-swell should affect the area through at 
least Sat. 

$$
Landsea