000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210225
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 103W from 04N northward to just
offshore SW Mexico, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 102W and 
109W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 132W from 05N to 20N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. A broad 1012 mb low pressure is along 
the wave at 14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N 
to 15N between 102W and 109W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 09N75W to across portions of Panama and
Costa Rica to 08.5N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N105W to
09N120W to 1012 mb low pressure near 14N132W to 12N135W. The ITCZ
extends from 12N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered to numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N 
between 77W and 99W, and from 05N to 11N between 109W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula from a low pressure over the Colorado River
Valley, inducing moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the
northern Gulf of California north of 30N. West of the trough, 
some moderate NW winds are within about 60 nm of the west coast 
of Baja California. Fresh to locally strong gap winds continue in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
prevail. Seas in offshore waters are 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft 
in and downwind of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. In the Gulf of 
California, seas are 2 to 4 ft north of 28N, and 1 to 3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail in the
northern Gulf of California into Tue night. Pulsing fresh to 
locally strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec into Wed night as a diurnal surface trough is 
expected to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico, 
for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas will prevail. Winds may freshen W of Baja 
California by mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens 
slightly, then increasing to fresh to strong mainly north of
Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. 
Moderate southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. Light and variable winds are elsewhere 
across the Central America offshore waters, except moderate in
the Gulf of Panama. Seas over the remainder of the waters are 3 
to 6 ft in south to southwest swell, except mixed with fresh NW 
swell offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap winds west of the area.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to 
east winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds associated with these gap 
winds will continue to affect the outer offshore waters of El 
Salvador and Guatemala into late week. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 24N and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 
132W, with a 1012 mb broad low along the wave at 14N. Winds near 
this wave and low are moderate to fresh, with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low/wave is also
allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to exist 
from 12N to 22N between 128W and 140W. Gentle to moderate 
northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South of the monsoon, 
winds are moderate and seas to 7 ft in southeast to south swell, 
to around 8 ft near 03.4S120W, and also near the Equator at 140W.

For the forecast, the low and tropical wave currently along 132W is 
located in an environment where conditions are only marginally 
conducive for development during the next day or so as the system 
moves westward at around 10 kt. There is a low chance of tropical 
cyclone formation before it reaches unfavorable conditions by Mon 
night. Otherwise, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades 
north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ will gradually shift to the 
western part of the area as the gradient between the tropical wave 
and the high pressure tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may 
reach around 10 ft with the tighter gradient over the western part 
of the area Mon through Tue night with increasing winds to strong 
speeds. Seas will linger around 8 ft south of the Equator and west 
of 105W through the early part of this week.

$$
Lewitsky