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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



037 
AXPZ20 KNHC 172238
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
2205 UTC Tue Sep 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Kiko is near 16.8N 125.1W at 2100 UTC, 
moving WSW, or 240 degrees at 4 knots. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 995 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 50 
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection 
is noted within 60 nm across the NW semicircle, while scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm N  and 120 
nm across the S semicircles. Kiko is expected to meander 
westward over the next several days, and could reach hurricane 
strength again near 130W on Fri. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for KIKO 
are available via the WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS 
header MIATCPEP3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for KIKO are available 
via the WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header 
MIATCMEP3.

The center of Tropical Storm Lorena is near 14.6N 101.3W at 2100 
UTC, moving NW, or 305 degrees, at 13 kt. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 45 
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 180 
nm across the W semicircle, while scattered to numerous strong 
is within 270 nm NE, 180 nm SE, 330 nm SW, and 210 nm NW 
quadrants. Lorena is expected to remain a small tropical storm 
and move NW and towards to the SW coast of Mexico, possible 
scraping the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes Wed 
night through Thu night. Tropical storm warnings are in effect 
from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for 
LORENA are available via the WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC, and via the 
AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENA are 
available via the WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS 
header MIATCMEP5.

The center of Tropical Storm Mario is near 12.3N 108.7W at 2100 
UTC, moving NW, or 325 degrees, at 9 kt. The estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind are 35 
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous strong convection 
is noted within 90 nm across the SW semicircle, while scattered 
moderate to strong is elsewhere within 270 nm NW and 500 nm SW 
quadrants. Mario is beginning to become better organized this 
afternoon, with a broad zone of strong S to SW winds extending 
from 03N into the SE semicircle of Marion. A NW motion and slow 
but gradual strengthening is expected over the next few days. 
The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MARIO are available via the WMO header 
WTPZ34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. The 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MARIO are available via the WMO header 
WTPZ24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W, north of 05N, moving westward 10 
to 15 knots. Associated scattered moderate to strong convection 
is noted from 08.5N to 15.5N between 90W and 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO E OF TROPICAL STORM 
LORENA NEAR 13.5N97W...then briefly resumes near 11N112W TO 
17N120W...then resumes again near 14.5N129W to low pres near 
14.5N134.5W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is N of 04.5N E to 83W, from 11.5N to 13N between 
121W and 128W, and from 07.5N to 10N W of 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Broad high pressure across the NE Pacific extends SE and weakly 
into the regional waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
associated pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate NW 
winds across the northern waters and gentle winds across the 
Baja California Sur waters. Afternoon scatterometer winds showed 
gentle SSE winds persisting in the northern Gulf of California. 
Afternoon altimeter data showed seas 4-5 ft from the Baja waters 
to Cabo Corrientes. Very active convection occurring ahead of 
Tropical Storm Lorena and associated strong easterly winds 
between Lorena and the Mexican coast are quickly building seas 
to near 10 ft offshore of Puerto Angel this afternoon, and will 
shift northwestward with Lorena tonight and Wed. 

The subtropical ridge will build slightly eastward tonight and 
Wed, and freshen the winds off Baja California. Moderate to 
fresh NW winds will continue over the waters north of Cabo San 
Lazaro through Friday, while moderate winds will prevail 
southward to Cabo San Lucas. Expect Tropical Storm Lorena to 
produce hazardous marine conditions across these offshore 
waters, as it moves northwestward. Local marine interests should 
continue to monitor closely the latest NHC bulletins.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Active convection continues across the offshore waters of 
Central America between 90W and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is 
associated with the tropical wave along 91W. Gradual 
organization of the tropical wave is possible during the next 
few days, while the wave moves westward beyond the Tehuantepec 
region on Wednesday. 

Moderate to fresh southwest winds will prevail to the south of 
the monsoon trough for the next several days. Gentle to locally 
moderate NW winds are expected to develop north of the monsoon 
through tonight through Fri and will help to maintain active 
weather across the regional waters. Strong SW monsoonal winds 
are forecast to develop Thu into Fri between the Galapagos 
Islands and Panama and will build offshore seas 7-8 ft there. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Tropical Storm Kiko continues to move slowly and generally 
westward across the open Tropical NE Pacific waters this 
afternoon, and remains a small but robust system. A ridge to the 
north of those waters will help to maintain moderate NE winds to 
the north of the monsoon trough and to the west of 125W through 
Friday, while Kiko continues westward. Seas in excess of 8 ft 
are expected to remain within about 240 nm of Kiko.  

To the W of Kiko, a 1008 mb low pressure center persists along 
the monsoon trough, near 15N135W. The pressure gradient to the 
north of this low is producing strong NE winds and seas to 9 ft 
within 120 nm NW of the low. The low pressure center is expected 
to remain nearly stationary through Wednesday. It is possible 
that it may drift eastward and become absorbed into the larger 
circulation of Kiko later this week.

$$
Stripling