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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260220
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to commence on Wed afternoon 
as a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches 
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind the 
front will provide a very tight pressure gradient over the area, 
and bring an increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds will rapidly increase to gale force by late
Wed afternoon, and then to storm force by Wed evening. Storm 
conditions are forecast to persist into early Fri, and the gale 
force winds are expected to continue into early Sun. Seas are 
forecast to build to 21-23 ft with this upcoming event by late
Wed night. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity
the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this very strong gap 
wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these 
hazardous marine conditions.

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A surface ridge extends across 
the offshore waters off the Baja California peninsula while a 
surface trough is located over western Mexico. The pressure 
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally 
strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California. Late tonight
through Wed, strong high pressure building across the Great 
Basin region of the United States will help to strengthen winds 
over the entire Gulf of California. Winds are forecast to 
increase to 20 to 30 kt, with seas building to 8 to 10 ft mainly 
S of 28N on Wed, except winds are now forecast to reach minimal
gale force mainly in the central Gulf beginning late Wed morning
through the early evening. Fresh to strong winds will also 
affect most of the Baja California peninsula, but particularly 
the northern part where gale force gusts may occur near and just 
onshore. Winds are forecast to diminish to 20 to 25 kt across the
Gulf of California by Thu morning with seas of 8 to 9 ft S of 
28N, with winds then diminishing to 20 kt or less by Thu 
afternoon.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the 09N83W to 08N90W to
03N101W. The ITCZ continues from 03N101W to 04N112W to 03N120W to
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 112W and 115W, from 05N to 07N between 133W and 136W, and
also from 02N to 06N between 138W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details about 
the developing Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and the
developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters W of 
the Baja California peninsula supporting moderate to locally 
fresh NW to N winds. A set of NW swell propagating across the 
waters W of Baja California has reached the Revillagigedo Islands
with seas of 6-8 ft. Seas will start to subside S of Cabo San 
Lazaro on Wed. As winds increase in the Gulf of California, fresh
to near gale force N-NE winds are expected to filter through the
passages in Baja California into the Pacific offshore waters N 
of Cabo San Lazaro, and gale force gusts may occur near and just 
onshore. This will keep seas in the 8 to 11 ft range N of Cabo 
San Lazaro through early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Large and fresh NW swells generated by a storm force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec NW of the area will propagate
into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by early
Thu and continuing into the upcoming weekend before subsiding
Sun. Seas will reach to 16 ft along the offshore boundary of the
Guatemala/Mexico border.

Gulf of Papagayo: Mainly light and variable winds and 4-6 ft seas
in mixed swell prevail. High pressure will build N of the area
toward the end of the week, and winds will become offshore and 
increase to moderate to fresh on Thu, then fresh to strong Thu 
night. Strong to near gale force winds are then expected on Fri,
possibly reaching minimal gale force during the upcoming 
weekend.

Gulf of Panama: Mainly moderate northerly winds will increase to
fresh to strong across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to near
04N or 05N beginning on Fri as high pressure builds N of the 
area. These winds will continue to pulse through the upcoming
weekend.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft in mixed,
long period swell will prevail the remainder of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail over much of the forecast waters
W of 112W in a broad mix of swells. Another set of long period 
NW swell will reach the NW waters on Wed and spread SE. Seas will
peak around 11-12 ft over the far NW waters Wed night before 
starting to subside.

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1034 mb centered N of the 
area near 37N132W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh tradewinds
N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas in the 8-10 ft 
range prevails over this area in mixed NW swell and NE wind 
waves.

While the area of high pressure will begin to weaken tonight 
into early Wed, weak and broad troughing along the ITCZ will help
to increase the pressure gradient resulting in an area of fresh
to strong trades by early Wed evening, mainly from 08N to 15N 
between 123W and 135W. Looking ahead, new and stronger high 
pressure will build NW of the area this weekend with a large area
of fresh to even near gale force trades developing over the
W-central waters.

$$
Lewitsky