000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252132
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.2N 109.2W, or about 290 nm SW
of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 913 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 41 ft (13 meters). Numerous strong convection is
noted within 120 nm of the center. Polo is forecast to turn to
the northwest Sat, north on Sun, then NE Mon. On the forecast
track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur early
next week.  Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible
today, but some weakening is expected this weekend. Polo is
forecast to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane
early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall 
associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service 
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will 
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the
Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal 
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 18.3N 123.6W at 25/2100 UTC,
moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are currently around 34 ft (11
meters). Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the
center. Odalys is expected to continue moving generally northward
into Sat, before turning NE. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is
forecast to begin tonight, then continue through early next week. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low 
pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or 
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward 
to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation
through the next 7 days. The broader circulation, deep moisture,
and instability associated with this system is already producing
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Southern
Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday night across
portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well as
Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N91W to 14N95W.
It then resumes SW of Hurricane Odalys near 12N127W and continues
to 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N
to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as low pressure
developing south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very
heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. 

Away from Hurricane Polo, modest high pressure building southward
is leading to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California and
nearshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh
gap winds are developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and broad
cyclonic flow offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas has increased to
moderate intensity. 

Rough seas from Polo dominate waters W of 103N and S of 26N, with
moderate seas elsewhere in offshore waters. In the Gulf of
California, northern waters have slight seas, with seas of 4 to 
7 ft building in the central and southern gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.2N 109.2W at 2
PM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 
155 kt with gusts to 190 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 
913 mb. Hurricane Polo will move to 17.4N 110.6W Sat morning, 
18.2N 112.1W Sat afternoon, and 19.6N 113.2W Sun morning. Polo 
will then reach 21.5N 113.7W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 113.6W Mon 
morning, and 25.1N 112.8W Mon afternoon. Polo will weaken to a 
tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora, Mexico, Tue 
afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 18.3N 123.6W at 2 PM PDT, 
and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 951 mb. Odalys will move to 18.9N 123.5W Sat morning, 20.0N 
123.4W Sat afternoon, and 21.1N 123.3W Sun morning. Odalys will 
weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 122.9W Sun afternoon, then 
become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 122.3W Mon morning. Post-
tropical cyclone Odalys weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N 
121.6W Mon afternoon. The remnants of Odalys will be west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands Tue afternoon. An area of low pressure is 
expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the 
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a 
medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high 
chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SE winds have developed offshore Guatemala, flowing
toward lower pressure S of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise,
mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail,
except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the 
area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through 
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to 
prevail across the offshore waters through early next week, along
with mostly moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. 

Outside of these hurricanes, and increasing pressure gradient due
to high pressure building southward is leading to moderate to
fresh NE winds N of 14N and W of 124W. Otherwise, mainly gentle
winds dominate. Moderate seas prevail, although the
aforementioned hurricanes are causing a broad area of rough seas
from 09N to 26N, E of 133W. 

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.2N 109.2W at 2
PM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 
155 kt with gusts to 190 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 
913 mb. Hurricane Polo will move to 17.4N 110.6W Sat morning, 
18.2N 112.1W Sat afternoon, and 19.6N 113.2W Sun morning. Polo 
will then reach 21.5N 113.7W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 113.6W Mon 
morning, and 25.1N 112.8W Mon afternoon. Polo will weaken to a 
tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora, Mexico, Tue 
afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 18.3N 123.6W at 2 PM PDT, 
and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 951 mb. Odalys will move to 18.9N 123.5W Sat morning, 20.0N 
123.4W Sat afternoon, and 21.1N 123.3W Sun morning. Odalys will 
weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 122.9W Sun afternoon, then 
become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 122.3W Mon morning. Post-
tropical cyclone Odalys weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N 
121.6W Mon afternoon. The remnants of Odalys will be west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands Tue afternoon. An area of low pressure is 
expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the 
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a 
medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high 
chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the 
weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
early next week. The system is forecast to move generally
northeastward.

$$
Konarik