000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281528
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 17.9N 116.1W at 28/1500
UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are near 40 to 41 ft, or 12.5 m. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the
center, except 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm in the SE
semicircle and 120 nm in the NW semicircle. Genevieve is moving
toward the west-northwest. A west- northwestward motion is 
expected during the next few days. Genevieve is a category 3 
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady 
weakening is forecast over the next several days. Swells 
generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells 
are likely to persist for a few more days, and could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 82W, from 05N northward into the
Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 5 kt. Any nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

A tropical wave is along 104W, from 04N to 15N, moving westward 
at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is observed from 02N to 09.5N between 95W and 106W. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 19N between
102W and 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 08N94W to 12N106W,
then resumes from 11N121W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 09.5N between 83W and 88W,
from 02N to 05N between 85W and 93W, and within 240 nm either
side of the monsoon trough between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Major Hurricane Genevieve. Please refer to the Tropical Waves 
and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about 
additional convection in the region.

Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW
winds associated with high pressure building in from the 
northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. 
Outflow from convection over Sonora is bringing fresh SE winds to
the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and 
moderate in the remaining offshore waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.3N 117.2W
this evening, 18.8N 118.9W Wed morning, 19.5N 120.7W Wed 
evening, 20.2N 122.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 20.9N 125.3W Thu evening, and 21.6N 127.7W Fri morning. 
Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.1N 
133.0W early Sat. Large seas associated with Genevieve will 
finally pull away from the offshore waters of Baja California 
Fri. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are 
likely through Wed night nearshore Baja California and also in 
the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the 
west of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh northerly winds may
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the early morning
hours Thu night and Fri night. Looking ahead, fresh and rough 
northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters
off Baja California Norte by the end of the upcoming weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ 
sections above for information about additional convection in the
region. 

High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly 
gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region through the period. Pulsing 
moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama tonight and Wed night. Southerly winds may freshen
offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in 
SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through
the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Genevieve.

For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, 1024 mb 
high pressure centered near 33N140W dominates. The pressure
pattern between the high and Genevieve are supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E trades from offshore southern California around the
periphery of the ridge including from 20N to 30N and west of
120W, and from 09N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally
fresh SE winds are found south of 06N and west of 120W, and also
south of the Equator and east of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds
are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the waters away from
Genevieve.

For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.3N 117.2W
this evening, 18.8N 118.9W Wed morning, 19.5N 120.7W Wed 
evening, 20.2N 122.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 20.9N 125.3W Thu evening, and 21.6N 127.7W Fri morning. 
Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.1N 
133.0W early Sat.Away from Genevieve, little change in marine 
conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters into 
next weekend. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off
California may push southward into the waters off Baja 
California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the
upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky