AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1358 UTC Sat Oct 20 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Vicente centered near 14.3N 93.6W at 20/1500 UTC
moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed within 30 nm
of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 92W and 95W. On the
forecast track, the center of Vicente will gradually move farther
away from the coasts of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico today.
Vicente will bring abundant and persistent tropical moisture
along the coast of southern Mexico, with precipitation guidance
suggesting 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10
inches, possible across portions of the Pacific coast of
southeastern and southern Mexico through the middle of next week.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
for additional details.
Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa centered near 14.8N 105.7W
at 20/1500 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Currently numerous moderate to strong convection
is observed within 90 nm of the center with scattered moderate
to strong convection noted elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 103W
and 109W. Refer to the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N91W. It resumes from
14N95W to 15N102W. Then resumes from 14N110W to 08N122W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N122W to 08N127W to beyond 11N140W. Isolated
moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 84W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N
to 15N between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 116W and 122W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N
to 12N W of 132W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical
Cyclone Vicente and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander across the offshore
waters from 23N117W to 21N106W through Mon. Gentle NW to N flow
is expected N of 20N W of 110W through early Tue. The pressure
gradient is then forecast to tighten, supporting moderate
northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula during the
middle of next week as large southerly swell propagates N through
the waters W of Baja.
Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected
through the middle of next week when large southerly swell will
reach the southern approach to the gulf waters.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly monsoonal flow will
dominate the offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh SW winds
are expected to develop S of 05N E of 90W on Sat night through
Sun night with seas to 9 ft.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa.
Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander from near 30N135W to
23N117W through the upcoming weekend. Fresh winds, and 7 to 9 ft
seas, are observed across the tropical waters from 13N to 19N W
of 133W. These conditions will shift W of the area Mon.