857 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190347
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica near 10N86W 
to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 11N 
between 92W and 99W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high centered north of the area near 36N139W extends 
ridging over much of the Mexico offshore waters, and a surface 
trough prevails over the Gulf of California through Baja 
California Sur. The pressure gradient between these features 
supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
offshore of Baja California, with seas to 8 ft noted north of 
28.5N. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate NW winds and seas of
1 to 4 ft prevail across the Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell are 
occurring offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will pulse 
offshore of Baja California into Tue as a tight pressure gradient
prevails between high pressure to the northwest and troughing 
over the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds are 
expected thereafter as the aforementioned high weakens. A new NW 
swell will promote rough seas north of Punta Eugenia into next 
weekend. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds are 
expected in the Gulf of California late tonight through Mon 
morning. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas in SW 
swell are expected elsewhere through Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SE to SW winds prevail south of the monsoon 
trough, while mainly gentle winds are noted to the north. Seas of
4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are noted across the waters offshore 
of Central and South America. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds are expected
this week south of the monsoon trough, from Costa Rica through 
the South American waters. North of the monsoon trough, gentle to
locally moderate winds are expected. Looking ahead, a long- 
period S to SW swell will promote rough seas well offshore of 
Ecuador near the Galapagos Islands by late this week. Elsewhere, 
moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo by Thu night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A 1031 mb high centered north of the area near 36N139W extends 
ridging through the East Pacific waters. Moderate to fresh N to E
winds are occurring in this region north of the monsoon trough 
and ITCZ, around the periphery of the high. A short-period, wind
wave driven swell is promoting rough seas of 8 to 9 ft between 
05N and 15N west of 130W. Elsewhere, a new NW swell is leading to
rough seas to 8 ft north of 28N between 120W and 125W. South of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds
and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail west of 90W.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to E winds will pulse north
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through midweek as high pressure 
remains anchored to the north. Locally strong N winds will be
possible north of 25N between 120W and 130W Mon into Tue. Winds
will gradually subside late this week. A short-period wind 
driven swell will lead to rough seas between 05N to 15N west of 
125W this week. Farther north, rough seas in N swell will expand 
to areas north of 15N between 120W and 140W Mon through Wed. 
Rough seas will then prevail offshore of Baja California Norte 
into next weekend. Elsewhere, a long-period S to SW swell will 
promote rough seas south of the equator Tue into next weekend. 

$$
ADAMS