186 
AXPZ20 KNHC 232114
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 115W from 04N to 
17N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 112W and 119W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific near 08N79W to 
13N115W to 10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N122W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
04N to 12N between 90W and 110W, and from 05N to 12N and W of 
120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging extends over the Mexico offshore waters, 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds over the Baja California 
waters and light to gentle winds offshore southern Mexico.
Locally rough seas prevail over the waters offshore Baja
California Norte, otherwise mainly moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere,
troughing prevails in the Gulf of California, supporting gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh NW winds will occur each night 
near Cabo San Lucas as troughing resides over Baja California 
Sur. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected north of 
Punta Eugenia through Sat, with pulsing winds expected offshore 
of much of the peninsula into early next week. In the northern 
Gulf of California, winds will pulse to fresh speeds nightly into
the weekend. Rough seas in NW swell will prevail offshore of 
Baja California Norte into Sat before seas slowly subside into 
the weekend. 

In the extended forecast, an area of low pressure is likely to 
form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern 
coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form around the 
middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of development within 
the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds are noted in the Papagayo region as low pressure 
prevails over northwestern Colombia. Otherwise, mainly light winds
are occurring north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to 
moderate winds occurring to the south. Moderate seas in SW swell 
are noted offshore of Central America and Colombia, and rough 
seas are occurring in the vicinity fo the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through the weekend as low pressure prevails over 
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds may extend beyond 
the Papagayo region, impacting areas well offshore of Guatemala 
and El Salvador. Elsewhere, a long-period SW swell is slated to 
move through the South American waters through this weekend, 
leading to rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

Surface ridging dominates the east Pacific waters. Moderate NE 
winds and moderate seas prevail north of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Fresh NE winds occurring around 10N, west of 125W, are 
generating rough seas. Rough seas in NW swell are occurring well 
offshore of Baja California, mainly N of 29N between 120W and 
124W. Farther south, a long-period SW swell is producing rough 
seas over the equatorial waters, with the highest seas noted 
south of the equator. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through today as high 
pressure prevails to the north. Rough seas generated by trade 
winds surrounding 10N will continue through today before 
subsiding this weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas occurring well 
offshore of Baja California, will prevail through tonight. The 
high pressure to the north is slated to weaken this weekend, 
supporting mainly moderate winds north of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ. Farther south, rough seas generated by a long-period
SW swell will occur south of 05N into early next week.

$$
ERA