000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061537
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure across the eastern slopes of Mexico and relatively 
lower pressure associated with the eastern north Pacific monsoon
trough is supporting gale-force northerly winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec to arond 40 kt. These gale conditions are forecast 
to continue through early Sun. Rough to very rough seas will 
accompany these winds. Strong to near gale-force winds will then 
prevail into early next week.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northeast to 
winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the upcoming 
weekend and into early next week. Winds may reach minimal gale- 
force during the upcoming weekend due to a tightened pressure 
gradient between strong high pressure to the north and the 
eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Rough seas will accompany 
these winds.

Significant West to Northwest Swell Event: Rough seas of 12 ft 
or greater are over the waters roughly NW of a line from 30N127W 
to 14N140W and are currently peaking near 14 ft north of 28N 
between 129W and 134W These very rough seas will gradually 
subside to just below 12 ft by early on Sat. Afterward, a large 
area of seas 8 ft or greater with this swell will cover much of 
the waters west of about 110W, with the remnant seas decaying by 
early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia through
extreme southern Panama, and continues to 08N78W to 01N92W
to 03N100W and to 03N109W, where it transitions to the ITCZ 
to 04N120W and to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 60 nm north of the trough 
between 82W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm 
north of the trough between 100W-106.5W, and also within 60 nm 
south of the trough between 89W-93W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section above for more details.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mostly moderate northwest to
north winds, as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite data, 
are in the southern Gulf of California to southeast of the 
entrance of the Gulf, as well as off the coast of Baja California
Sur. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas,
except slight to moderate in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of 
large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte 
today, spreading across the waters W of 100W during the upcoming 
weekend before decaying. Another set of NW swell may arrive off 
Baja California Norte early next week. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see
the Special Features section above for more details.

Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong winds and rough
seas are over the far offshore waters of Guatemala associated 
with the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale- force 
gap wind event in Tehuantepec will produce rough seas well 
offshore the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters through
tonight. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend into
early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A Significant west to northwest swell is present over the NW 
waters. Please see the Special Features section above for more 
details.

Aside from the large swells discussed above, gentle to moderate 
winds with moderate seas in mixed swell prevail.

For the forecast, aside from the large west to northwest swell 
described in the Special Features, high pressure will build over 
the waters north of 20N through the upcoming weekend and into 
early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten between the
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ to leading to fresh to occasionally strong trades from 
07N to 20N and west of 110W. These winds are forecast to diminish
some early next week as another cold front impacts the NW 
waters. That cold front may move to the southeast of 30N140W 
early next week ushering in fresh to strong winds and a 
reinforcing set of northwest swell over the NW corner of the 
discussion area. Meanwhile, rough seas are possible over the open
waters west of the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through the the weekend, with the next gale-force gap
wind events materializing over these waters.

$$
Aguirre