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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250244
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0240 UTC Tue Feb 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 04N100W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N100W to 04N110W to 02N120W to 04N135W to 
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02N to 06N between 87W and 100W. Scattered moderate 
convection was noted from 02N to 05N between 110W and 115W.
Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 10N between
125W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front will move across the
Gulf of Mexico the middle of the week. The pressure gradient
between high pressure building in the wake of the cold front and
the equatorial trough in the eastern north Pacific will tighten
and help usher in the next gap wind event over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec on Wed. Winds will start to funnel through the
Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the day on
Wednesday. Winds are forecast to increase to 30-45 kt by Wed 
evening, then possibly reaching minimal storm force by Wed night.
Winds will diminish to gale force on Thu, and the gale force
winds are expected to continue to prevail through Sat night. 
Seas with this upcoming event are forecast to peak near 23 ft 
Thu morning.

Gulf of California: A surface ridge extends across the offshore
waters off the Baja California peninsula while a surface trough
is located over western Mexico. The pressure gradient between 
these features is supporting fresh to locally strong NW-N winds
across the Gulf of California S of 27N. By the middle of the 
week, high pressure will build across the Great Basin region of 
the United States. This will help to strengthen winds over most 
of the Gulf of California, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft mainly
S of 27N on Wed.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters west 
of the Baja California peninsula supporting fresh to locally 
strong NW to N winds. A set of NW swell propagating across the 
waters W of Baja California will continue to spread southward,
bringing seas of 8 ft or greater west of the Baja peninsula to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas will start to subside by 
the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast 
to filter through the passages in Baja California Norte into the 
Pacific offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed as winds 
increase in the Gulf of California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will strengthen Thu as high pressure 
builds N of the area. Strong to near gale force winds are 
expected on Fri, possibly reaching minimal gale force during the 
upcoming weekend.

Gulf of Panama: Winds will increase Fri as high pressure builds 
N of the area. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will 
prevail into Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1036 mb, centered N of the
area near 37N132W, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to 
strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 125W. Seas 
in the 9-11 ft range prevails over this area. The area of high 
pressure will start to weaken through midweek. This will decrease
aerial coverage of the fresh to strong trades.

Seas of 8 ft or greater prevail over much of the forecast waters
W of 110W in a broads mix of swell. The swell will gradually
subside over the next couple of days, and aerial coverage of 
seas 8 ft or greater will decrease. By midweek, much of the
waters W of 110W will subside below 8 ft. 

A new set of long period NW swell will reach the NW waters on Wed
and spread SE. Seas will peak near 11 ft over the far NW waters 
Wed night before starting to subside.

$$
AL