000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042113
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.7N 131.1W at 2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 
40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Seas to 4 m are found within 45 nm across the NW 
semicircle. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong 
convection continues within 90 nm across the NW semicircle of the
center, as E to SE vertical wind shear persists. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm 
across the east semicircle. Strengthening is not expected tonight
as the wind shear is expected to continue, before conditions 
begin to become unfavorable after 24 hours. A west-northwest to
west motion is expected through Sat before a weakening Amanda 
turns toward the southwest at a slower forward speed this 
weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 94W S of 13.5N, moving W near 
10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection
is noted from 04.5N to 14.5N between 89W and 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N72W to 10.5N83W to 09.5N93W
to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N105W to 09.5N124W, then resumes 
SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 09N132W and continues to beyond 
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 01N to 12N E of 89W, and from 05.5N to 15N between 124W and
140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 89W and 107W, and
from 05.5N to 11.5N between 107W and 122W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure center located near
35N144W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California 
waters to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands along 108W. This
pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja
Norte waters north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally 
fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur waters to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in
mixed NW and SW swell, except to 8 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe
in new N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds 
prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW 
swell near the entrance to the Gulf. Across the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, with 
moderate seas to 6 ft, primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue across the waters beyond 60 nm of
shore between Tehuantepec and Michoacan.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a
broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through 
early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Fri night, then
diminish slightly through Sun. Rough seas in building NW swell, 
will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta 
Eugenia late this afternoon through early next week. An area of 
low pressure has formed offshore of southwestern Mexico along 
the monsoon trough. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to develop during the next several days as 
it moves slowly north or north-northeastward near the coast of 
southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the Gulf of
America and western Caribbean today. This pattern is yielding light
to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters, with
gentle to moderate gap winds extending offshore to beyond 90W
from the Papagayo region. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in building SW 
swell prevail across the area waters, except 6 to 8 ft E through
SW of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms remain 
active offshore of much of the area waters W of 80W. Gentle S to
SW winds prevail over the waters S of the monsoon trough between
the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia, except higher near
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat
morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, monsoonal SW to W winds
will increase south of the monsoon trough over the weekend, and an
area of low pressure is forecast to form along the monsoon 
trough offshore of Central America and southern Mexico during
that time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form during the next several days, while it moves 
slowly northward. Currently, this system has a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W, 
extending southeastward to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across most of the area N 
of 10N and W of 125W based on recent satellite scatterometer 
data. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix
of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S
of the monsoon trough with seas of 6 to 7 ft W of 115W, and 7 to
9 ft between 90W and 115W. 

The high pressure will drift W and weaken slightly across the
area waters Fri through the weekend as Tropical Storm Amanda 
tracks toward the NW then W over the western portion of the area,
resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade wind 
zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat morning,
before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves through the
regional waters E of 130W through early next week.

Tropical Storm Amanda is forecast to move to 13N 132.1W as a 40
kt T.S. around midnight tonight, reach 12.9N 133.7W midnight Fri,
reach 12.2N 134.7W midnight Sat as a T.D., then weaken further, 
reaching near 11.9N 135.2W Sun afternoon as a post- tropical 
remnant low.

$$
Stripling