000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220332
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.6N 120.3W at 22/0300 UTC, 
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with 
gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 29 ft. Numerous moderate 
scattered strong convection is occurring from 14N to 17.5N 
between 118W and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 115W and 
124W. Fausto is moving toward the west-northwest and a general 
west- northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next 
several days. Some slow strengthen is possible during the next 72
hours before atmospheric and oceanic conditions begin to become
less favorable. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach
the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico tonight,
and persist for a couple of days. These swells will likely to 
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is relocated along 89W-90W N of 05N extending 
into Central America, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 
11.5N between 83W and 91W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 07.5N79W to 08.5N87W
to 07N99W to 10N111W, where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then
resumes near 12.5N127W to 09N137W. ITCZ extends from 09N137W to 
beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the 
tropical wave and Fausto, scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N between 91W and 112W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between
124W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 700 nm WSW of the southern tip 
of Baja California. Fausto is exiting to the W of the
Revillagigedo Islands, leaving diminishing moderate SE winds
across those area waters. However seas remain 8 to 11 ft in SW
swell there. 

To the north of Fausto, a weak ridge extends eastward then
southeastward into the Baja waters to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes. This ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and 
seas of 4 to 7 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro, with higher seas in the 6
to 9 ft S of Cabo San Lazaro. Inside the Gulf of California, 
recent satellite altimeter data show gentle northerly winds
across the offshore waters with diurnal heating leading to
moderate to locally fresh winds along much of the coastlines,
extending southeastward to near Acapulco. Gentle to locally
moderate winds are found inside the Gulf of California, where seas
are estimated at 1 to 3 ft except 4 to 5 ft in new SW swell from
Fausto across the entrance. Sea are generally 4 to 5 ft across 
the Baja Norte waters and 5 to 9 ft in building S to SW swell 
across the Baja Sur waters to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to 
moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Isolated thunderstorm 
clusters dot the waters S of 20N.

For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto moves westward and away from
the region, high pressure will begin to build across the Baja 
California offshore waters overnight through Thu to produce 
moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds
near the coasts during the afternoon and evening hours. Swells 
generated by Fausto have begun to reach the west coast of the 
Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico tonight, and persist for
a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of 
California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
expected. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec 
region during the overnight and early morning hours through the 
week, with locally rough seas.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop
well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter,
and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of
the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives 
this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Afternoon satellite derived wind data indicated fresh to strong 
NE to E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to about to
92W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Scattered thunderstorms
are active along and south of these winds to 04N. Elsewhere, 
winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW 
swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Wed
night, with moderate NE winds pulsing to fresh farther N across
northern Nicaragua to near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to 
moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight 
to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in 
SW swell are expected elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to 
develop well downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec over 
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to 
west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of 
the eastern Pacific, and beyond the local offshore waters.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 700 nm WSW of the southern tip 
of Baja California.

Hurricane Fausto and the remnants of Elida, currently located
well N of the forecast area, dominate conditions over the High 
Seas forecast waters N of 10N between 110W and 130W. Seas 7 to 8
associated with the remnants of Elida, are still affecting the 
waters north of 27N between 123W and 137W. Fresh to strong winds
outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend to 22N, 
while moderate or weaker winds with moderate to locally rough 
seas prevail. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move west-
northwest to westward through the rest of the week, reaching near 
16.9N 121.4W Wed morning, 17.3N 123.1W Wed afternoon, 17.6N
125.3W Thu morning, 17.9N 127.8W Thu afternoon, 18.2N 130.6W Fri
morning, and 18.6N 133.3W Fri afternoon. SE to S swell
propagating away from Fausto will spread across the regional
waters W of 120W Wed through Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of
low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over 
the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to 
west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of 
the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives 
this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7
days. As is typical during EL Nino years, the eastern Pacific 
remains active, with one tropical system potentially developing 
after another.

$$
Stripling