461 
AXPZ20 KNHC 222337 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.6N 101.5W at 22/2100 
UTC, and nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure 
is 892 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 
190 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 45 ft or 14 m. Satellite 
imagery shows that Polo has a small eye as it continues to 
intensify. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the 
center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere 
within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within of the center 
in the W semicircle. Polo is nearly stationary, but a slow northwestward
motion is expected tonight followed by a generally west-northwestward
motion over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the 
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern 
Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is forecast 
to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is 
possible tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wed and 
Wed night. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across 
coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán 
through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of
2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima,
and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo are expected 
to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 15.1N 130.1W, or about 
1235 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California
moving east-northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 
75 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft or 7 m. satellite imagery shows 
that its deep convection of numerous strong type intensity 
is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 270 nm of 
the center in the center in the SE quadrant, 300 nm of the center in 
the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of the center in the NW 
quadrant. Odalys is forecast to maintain its present motion over the 
next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the northeast 
late this week.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys 
could become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo 
and Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough
currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm 
sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a 
potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next 
several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced 
moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, 
supporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some 
uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, 
but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme
southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central 
Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize 
well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama.  Heavy 
rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. Please consult products 
from your local weather office.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm west of the wave and 60 nm east of the wave from 12N to 
14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across 
southern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N89W. No significant 
convection is presently noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo.

Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh
northwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or 
weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder 
of the waters away from Polo.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 
101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts 195 
kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W late 
Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near 
16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts 
185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained 
winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, to near 17.4N 108.5W Fri afternoon and to 
near 18.7N 111.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt 
gusts 140 kt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northwest winds 
will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through 
early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores 
will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking 
ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a 
hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja 
California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer 
swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja 
California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very 
confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly 
gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then 
pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could 
form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel 
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern 
Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The coverage 
of scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore 
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador has diminished this 
afternoon.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to 
prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, 
except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and 
Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is 
expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. 
A tropical depression could from this area of low pressure late 
this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly away from 
the offshore waters. Swells from this system may potentially 
impact the western portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical 
Storm Odalys.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh trades are over the waters 
roughly from 15N to 23N west of 134W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed 
northeast and southeast swell within this area of fresh trades.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere as 
noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 
101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts
195 kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W
late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt,
to near 16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 
150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with 
maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt and to near 17.4N 
108.5W Fri afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.7N 111.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a 
hurricane near 15.2N 129.3W late tonight with maximum sustained 
winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.4N 128.0W Wed afternoon 
with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.8N 126.6W 
late Wed night, to near 16.5N 125.3W Thu afternoon, the begin to 
weaken as it moves to near 17.3N 124.1W late Thu night and to near 
18.0N 123.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 
80 kt. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Very large 
seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week 
into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together 
resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, 
high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much 
maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest 
of the week.

$$
Aguirre