864 
AXPZ20 KNHC 151545 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Large NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the 
waters N of 24N and W of 116W are being reinforced by new large
NW swell generated behind a cold front, which extends over the 
NW waters from 30N128W to 23.5N140W. Seas of 12 ft or greater 
have begun to spread SE of 30N140W, and will continue to, with 12
to 18 ft seas across the waters N of 22N and W of 126W by early 
Mon, then N of 23N and W of 117W by early Tue. Seas will then 
begin to subside to near 12 ft later Tue before new N swell 
enters the northern waters Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft 
again Wed through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 10N85.5W to 04N95W. The ITCZ extends from 
04N95W to 00N110W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 09N E of 85W, from 00N to 04.5N between
90W and 106W, and from 07.5N to 11N between 135W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad and weakening high pressure ridge prevails across the 
area waters, centered on a 1017 mb high near 26.5N119W, while 
elongated troughing is located just inland across much of 
mainland Mexico. Mostly northerly winds are moderate or weaker 
across the Baja offshore waters, and central and south portions
of the Gulf of California, per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, 
with fresh winds near the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Rough seas of
7 to 9 ft are offshore Baja California from Punta Eugenia 
northward, with more moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, 
except slight in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area along
119W will drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse, 
ahead of a cold front moving into the open waters well W of the 
area. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse on either side of Baja 
California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through tonight, then 
again starting Tue. The cold front will approach Baja California 
Norte Mon night with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it in the 
northern Gulf of California, and west of Baja Norte through early
Tue. These winds will diminish as the front moves through Baja 
California and the northern Gulf of California and gradually 
dissipates on Tue. High pressure building across the region 
behind the front will produce fresh to locally strong northerly 
winds N of Cabo Corrientes Wed through Thu. NW swell moving 
across the Baja California Norte waters will gradually subside 
through early Mon. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters 
W of 110W Mon through Wed, with seas building to 12 ft and 
greater N of Punta Eugenia Mon night through Tue evening. Fresh 
to strong gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
tonight through Tue morning before diminishing.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue across the Papagayo 
region this morning, extending offshore to near 90W. This is 
generating seas 6 to 7 ft offshore. Moderate northerly winds
across the Gulf of Panama become locally fresh NE winds extending
southwestward and beyond the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or 
weaker winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell are 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will
persist across the Papagayo region through this morning, then 
pulse to moderate to fresh through Mon. Fresh to strong winds may
return there Mon night through early Thu as high pressure builds
across the NW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds
will generally continue across the Gulf of Panama through the 
middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas will change little through the next 
several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.

A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters,
extending from 30N128W to 23.5N140W. Fresh to strong NW winds and 
building seas are behind the front, up to near 16 ft near 30N140W. 
Weak and broad high pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate 
to locally fresh trades are from 07N to 17N between 120W and 140W 
with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft 
elsewhere N of 07N and W of 118W, and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder 
of the open waters.

For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell 
entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds
behind it will reach from 30N123W to 19N140W Mon morning, and 
from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue, with winds N of 
20N behind it diminishing as the front weakens continues moving
eastward and gradually dissipates. High pressure will build in 
the wake of the front and the belt of moderate to fresh trades N 
of the ITCZ will increase to at least fresh to strong early next 
week. Active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough 
seas in NW swell will accompany these increasing trades.

$$
Stripling