901 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120301
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Oct 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W from 07N to 16N moving west at 10
kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 15N between 91W and 101W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 10N84W to 09N108W to
09N119W to 09N127W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N127W to
08N140W. Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is
primarily associated with the tropical wave, described above. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond is centered near 22.9N 110.0W at
12/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak sea are around 9 ft. With Raymond
now void of deep convection for most of the day, it no longer
possesses tropical characteristics and is now a remnant low. The
remnant low will move inland into Baja California Sur later this
evening is it continues to weaken. The circulation should fully
dissipate sometime on Sunday, however moisture associated with
the remnants will support heavy rainfall across portions of
northwest Mexico and the southeast United States into early next
week. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher
amounts in these areas, may lead to flash flooding, especially in
urban locations and higher terrain. Please consult products from
your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Elsewhere, fresh NW winds are west of Baja California in the wake
of a dissipating cold front. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted
offshore Baja California Norte, with 5 to 7 ft seas to the south.
Light and gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are over the Gulf 
of California, except in the southern portion where stronger 
winds of fresh to strong speeds from the southeast to south in 
direction are present influences of Raymond. Light to gentle 
west to northwest winds are over the offshore waters of Mexico 
south of about 20N, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
where fresh to locally strong north gap winds are presently 
occurring. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, aside from Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond, fresh
to locally strong NW winds and rough seas will impact offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte through Sun night as high 
pressure builds S toward the region. Strong northerly gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside Sun then redevelop 
starting Mon night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form off the coast of southern Mexico by the middle 
of next week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for some development thereafter, as the system moves 
slowly northward or northwestward near or just offshore of the 
coast of southern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh southwest winds are south of the monsoon 
trough, and mostly gentle west to northwest winds are north of 
the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters.

For the forecast, generally moderate to fresh southwest winds 
and seas will remain south of the monsoon through the forecast 
period. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will be
favorable for showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop 
over the regional waters well into the upcoming week. Looking 
ahead, low pressure may form south of Guatemala by the middle of 
next week, and environmental conditions may be conducive for some
tropical development of this low as it move slowly north or 
northwest late next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging prevails north of about 15N and west of 125W while
a dissipating cold front stretches from southeastern California 
southwestward to along 30N reaching to near 137W. Fresh north 
winds are behind the front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft behind the front.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower 
pressures in the low- latitude tropical region is allowing for 
moderate to fresh north to northeast winds from 08N to 24N and 
west of 130W, along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds are south of the ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 7 
ft. Moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the area into
early next week. Winds north of the ITCZ will become gentle to 
moderate northeast to east in direction, and mostly gentle in 
speeds from north to northeast in direction north of the monsoon 
trough. Seas may lower slightly during the early part of next
week. A weakening cold front may brush the far northern waters 
Tue and Wed. 

$$
Konarik