000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310847
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 21.7N 127.2W at
31/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft or 8.0 m.
Deep convection has rapidly diminished, with scattered moderate 
convection within 120 nm SW semicircle of the system. Genevieve 
is expected to maintain a steady weakening trend while continuing
on a west- northwest track through the weekend. The system is 
forecast to become post- tropical late this weekend. 

Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will
persist for the next day or so, and are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, N of 02N into the 
Western Caribbean, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby 
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W, from 03N to 19N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 111W and 119W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N90W to 05N96W to 07.5N110W. A segment of the
central Pacific monsoon trough extends from southwest of 
Genevieve near 14N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 82W 
and 89W, from 03N to 09N between 102W and 107W, and from 10N to 
14N between 134W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in 
the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish today. Moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds are expected to pulse tonight nearshore Baja California. 
Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of 
California, possibly reaching strong speeds Sat night. NW swell 
may lead to rough seas offshore Baja California Norte Sun night 
and Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft 
are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to
locally fresh gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted between the Galapagos Islands and 
Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough 
seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected across the remainder of the waters through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.

For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is 
centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas 
in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 22.2N 
129.1W this afternoon, 23.1N 132.1W Sat morning, 23.9N 134.9W Sat
afternoon, 24.7N 137.9W Sun morning, 25.5N 140.4W Sun afternoon,
and weaken to a remnant low near 26.6N 142.7W Mon morning. Away 
from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast 
through the weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is 
likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California 
Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend 
into early next week. New large southerly swell may build south 
of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.

$$
AL