057 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260903
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 109W from 02N to 16N, 
moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 13N between 106W to 115W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N127W to 13N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either
side of the monsoon trough and E of 102W, and from 03N to 18N W 
of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 32N113W to 26N110W, then a surface
ridge dominates the remainder of the area. Fresh to strong N to 
NW winds and moderate seas prevail offshore of Baja as a result 
of the pressure gradient between these two features. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle 
or weaker winds prevail over the rest of the waters. Seas are 
mainly moderate in SW swell, with slight seas in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds will continue 
offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through the
weekend as the pressure gradient builds between troughing over 
the Gulf of California and high pressure to the west. Pulsing 
fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
increase to strong to near-gale force Sun night through early 
next week as high pressure builds southward through Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low 
pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Elsewhere, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore of Panama, with
gusty winds and building seas likely near convection. Moderate 
SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Moderate seas in 
SW swell are noted through the regional waters.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo into next week as low pressure prevails in 
the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh SW winds will 
continue south of the monsoon trough through the weekend, then 
diminish slightly. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected across 
the Central and South American waters into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
 
Surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the 
monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are noted north of 25N and
west of 125W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and 
rough seas from 10N to 20N west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SE 
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 
generally moderate.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough to 25N, expanding farther north 
through the weekend as high pressure strengthens north of the 
area. Rough seas generated by fresh winds will occur from 10N to 
15N west of 130W though Sun, then rough seas may develop south 
of the monsoon trough on Sun night through early next week.

$$
ERA