000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110407
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, from the NW Caribbean 
southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 14N E of 91W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, from 01N to 16N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 03N to 13N between 91W and 107W.  

The axis of a tropical wave is near 127W from 02N to 16N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N
to 16N between 120W and 134W.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 09N120W to 05N140W. 
The ITCZ begins and extends beyond 05N140W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 13N between 106W and 120W, and from 01N
to 09N W of 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula,
with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh 
SE winds along the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing 
SW of SW Mexican offshores is helping to induce fresh to strong 
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across 
the Baja California offshores through the middle of next week 
along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to 
strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach 
near gale- force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect 
the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low 
pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week
several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone 
formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to 
strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore 
waters of SW Mexico starting Sun night. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave crossing Central America with axis extending 
into the E Pacific waters, is inducing fresh to strong gap winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between 
the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo 
region will prevail through the middle of next week with moderate
to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to 
very rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and 
Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas across the discussion waters are 
moderate or less. 

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. 
Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds 
and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters 
Sun through midweek.

$$
Ramos