000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141622
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough axis extends from 08N77W to 06N100W. An ITCZ 
extends from 06N100W to 03N124W, then resumes W of a surface 
trough from 05N130W to beyond 04N130W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted near and south of the monsoon
trough from 03N to 08N and east of 96W. Numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection is noted near the ITCZ from 03N to 
08N west of 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge across the region extends southeastward across the
waters W of 110W, to the Revillagigedo Islands. Troughing 
extends across western Mexico. Recent satellite scatterometer
winds show that this pressure pattern is supporting moderate to 
locally fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California north of 
Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across 
the Baja waters. Seas across these Baja waters are 5 to 7 ft in 
mixed NW and SW swell. Scatterometer data also showed moderate to
locally fresh W to SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of
California, and gentle to moderate NW winds across the remainder
of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft and building across the northern
Gulf and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere from Baja Sur to Puerto Angel, where seas are 5 to 6 ft
in SW swell. N to NE gap winds have begun to pulse to near 30 kt 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend offshore to near 14N, 
where seas are 6 to 9 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough 
seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning.
Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds in the northern Gulf of 
California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime 
hours this weekend. Moderate to fresh NW winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California are expected through Mon, 
except becoming fresh to strong west of Baja Norte along with 
very rough seas in large NW swell Sat through Sun evening, due to
a strengthening high pressure to the northwest. This swell 
should spread southward and produce moderate to rough seas near 
Baja Sur and near the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sat. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to locally
strong easterly gap winds extend offshore of southern Nicaragua 
and the Papagayo region to 88W. Seas are 6-7 ft there. Moderate
to locally fresh NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Panama and extends southward to Punta Mala, where seas are 3 to 
4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the area 
waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell, except 5-7 ft in mixed 
southerly swell S of the Equator. Numerous strong thunderstorms 
are shifting westward off the coast of Colombia and into the 
approach to the Gulf of Panama, while scattered showers and 
thunderstorms extend from 02.5N northward into the coastal waters
of western Panama and southeastern Cost Rica. 

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally 
rough seas during nighttime hours offshore of the Papagayo region
through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next
week. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night, tonight and
Fri night. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms 
across the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica 
will persist through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1030 mb high pressure just N of the area near 38N139W extends a 
ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates 
the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the 
ridging and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, including an
embedded surface trough from 12N122W to 04N131W, supports 
moderate to fresh NE to E trades across most of the waters N of 
the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere 
across the open waters, including S of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft
in southerly swell S of 05N between 100W and 125W. Seas are 7-9 
ft in mixed swells from roughly 10N to 27N to the W of 128W, and
from 05N to 21N between 119W and 130W. Active convection 
continues between 120W and 135W, near portions of the ITCZ and 
the surface trough as described above.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will continue to 
build east and southeastward across the region tonight through 
Sun, then shift W and weaken early next week. This pattern will 
support continued fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W,
with seas of 8-9 ft mainly W of 125W, and 6-7 ft between 118W 
and 125W. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to
strong across the Baja Norte waters and expand across the NE and
N-central waters by the weekend before diminishing late Mon
through Tue. Seas across the northeast waters will begin to 
build late Fri in northerly swell, building to 8 to 10 ft Sat 
morning, and to 10-15 ft midday Sun through midday Mon. Rough 
seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the 
far southwestern waters to near the Equator and W of 100W today 
and then build to 8-9 ft late Fri through the weekend in mixed SE
and S swell. 

$$

Chan