542 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180350
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 13.1N 94.9W, or about 200
nm south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico and about 310 nm 
southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico at 18/0300 UTC, moving 
northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Latest satellite imagery shows banding features, some appearing 
fractured surrounding the cyclone over an area from 10N to 16N 
between 90W and 98W. The convection within these bands of the 
numerous moderate to isolated strong type intensity. Peak seas 
with the cyclone are near 19 ft (5.8 m). Erick is forecast to 
maintain its present motion along with a gradual increase in 
forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast 
track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of 
southern Mexico Wed night and move inland or be near the coast on
Thu. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by by early Wed. 
Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when 
it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wed night and Thu. 
Mariners should use extreme caution navigating the offshore 
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and take the necessary action 
to avoid the hazardous marine conditions related to Tropical 
Storm Erick.

Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 
inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican 
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life 
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep 
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of
8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, 
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. Swells generated by Erick are 
expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave that earlier was along 85W, with its southern
portion extending to 05N has been absorbed into the large
cyclonic associated with Tropical Storm Erick. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia to across
northern Costa Rica and to 12N89W. It resumes southwest of
Tropical Storm Erick near 10N100W to 11N113W and to 09N126W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N134W to 
beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection related to Tropical
Storm Erick, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 60 nm north of the trough between 101W-103W and west 
of 137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of
the ITCZ between 126W-137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on current
conditions of Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, weak low pressure, remnants of Dalila, is near 
19N116W with a pressure of 1011 mb. A trough extends from the 
low to near 22N113W and south-southwest of the low to near 
11N117W. Gentle winds are near the low. No significant convection
is occurring with this feature. Otherwise, high pressure is 
present west of Baja California allowing for generally moderate 
or weaker winds. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are 
over the Gulf of California, except in the far southern section 
where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present. 
Seas are 3 ft over the Gulf, except higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over
the southern section of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across 
the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will move to 13.3N 95.2W 
Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.2N 96.4W Wed 
afternoon, 15.4N 97.5W Thu morning, inland to 16.9N 99.0W Thu 
afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 18.3N 
100.8W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, high 
pressure well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters through the rest of the week. Rough 
northwest to north swell will build over the Baja waters through 
the rest of the week. The swell will be reinforced by a new set 
of northwest to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly 
winds will continue across the Gulf of California today. Winds 
will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on 
conditions related to Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore 
Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, 
with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 13.7N 95.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained 
winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, to near 14.7N 96.8W Wed evening, and 
continue to strengthen as it nears 16.0N 98.2W Thu morning with 
maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Erick will move 
inland near 17.4N 100.0W Thu evening and begin to weaken, 
eventually dissipating by Fri evening.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands through the next few days. Winds will be
moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to 
mostly fresh speeds in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. 
Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will prevails through the 
rest of the week. Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia 
northward through Wed, except higher near T.S. Erick, subsiding 
afterward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on conditions
related to Tropical Storm Erick.

Broad surface ridging extend from a high well northwest of the 
discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near 
19N115W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open 
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 
mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and 
northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast 
to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand 
in coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in 
seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through 
Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional 
waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the 
week.

$$
Aguirre