000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311532
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 22.1N 128.6W at
31/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft or 8.0 m. Scattered
moderate convection within 90 nm in the NW semicircle, and 30 nm
in the SE semicircle of the system. Genevieve is expected to 
maintain a steady weakening trend while continuing on a west- 
northwest track through the weekend. The system is forecast to 
become post- tropical late this weekend. 

Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will
persist for the next day or so, and are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, N of 02N into the 
Nicaragua and Honduras, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. 
Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section
below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W, from 02N to 18N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N95W to 09N112W, and from 06N115W to 10N122W. A 
segment of the central Pacific monsoon trough extends from 
southwest of Genevieve near 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 05N to 08N
east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is also active from
03N to 07N between 80W and 95W, and from 07N to 12N between 117W
and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An early morning scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are
likely due to higher pressure over south-central Mexico and lower
pressure farther south into the tropics. Seas are estimated to 
be 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The satellite data also 
showed fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur between Cabo San 
Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, moderate winds elsewhere off Baja 
California, on the western edge of ridging farther west offshore.
Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted across the Gulf of
California with 1-3 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes and 3-5 ft
combined seas in W swell are noted elsewhere off southern
Mexico.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong gap in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish today. Moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds are expected to pulse tonight nearshore Baja California. 
Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of 
California, possibly reaching strong speeds Sat night. NW swell 
may lead to rough seas offshore Baja California Norte Sun night 
and Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft 
are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to
locally fresh gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted between the Galapagos Islands and 
Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough 
seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected across the remainder of the waters through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.

For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is 
centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas 
in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve will 
move to 22.6N 130.6W this evening, 23.4N 133.5W Sat morning, 
24.2N 136.4W Sat evening, 25.1N 139.1W Sun morning, weaken to a 
remnant low west of area by late Sun. Away from Genevieve, little
change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. 
Rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward 
into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east 
of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. New large
southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W 
beginning Tue night.

$$
Christensen