000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.3N 133.7W at 1500 UTC,
moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Peak seas are currently around 4 m, or 13 ft, within 45 nm across
the NW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 120 nm across the W semicircle.
Additional scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 210
nm in the NE quadrant. Amanda is expected to continue moving
westward this morning, followed by a southwestward motion this
afternoon through Sat. Little change in strength is forecast this
afternoon, but gradual weakening is likely to begin by tonight 
and continue through the weekend. Amanda is forecast to 
degenerate into a remnant low on Sun. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 11.5N84W to 09.5N94W 
to low pressure near 14N104W 1010 mb to 09.5N121W to 11N129W, 
then resumes SSW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 08.5N134W to 
07N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 01N to 16N E of 98W, and from 08N to 
16N between 98W and 116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04.5N to 12.5N between 116W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure center located near
35N143W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California 
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is 
producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja waters, 
and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur 
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are
5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the W
through N of Isla Guadalupe in fresh N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf
of California, light S to SW winds generally prevail, except 
moderate N of 30N, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf, except
seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell near the entrance. Across the 
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds 
dominate, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in SW swell. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the near and
offshore waters between Chiapas and Oaxaca, and along the coast 
of Michoacan as described above.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a 
broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through 
early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will 
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through tonight, then 
diminish slightly through Sun, except persisting to fresh near 
Cabo San Lucas, pulsing to strong Sun night into early next week.
Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through early next week. 
Southerly winds may pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of 
California N of 30N Sat night and Sun night. Low pressure 
located well offshore of southwestern Mexico is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next several 
days while it moves slowly northeastward near the coast of 
southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and a
high chance through 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues N of the region, across
the Gulf of America and western Caribbean. This pattern is 
yielding light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore
waters, except locally moderate gap winds offshore Nicaragua, 
while gentle to moderate SSE winds are from offshore Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in building SW swell 
prevail across the area waters, except 7 to 9 ft from offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms remain active offshore of much of the area waters 
near the monsoon trough as described above, with higher winds and
seas likely near this activity.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat
morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands. New larger SW swell is expected to 
arrive by Sat night, propagating NE into early next week and 
building seas to 7 to 10 ft, at a minimum. Otherwise, a trough 
of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing some 
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the next several days 
while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central
America. Regardless of development, monsoonal SW to W winds will
increase south of the monsoon trough over the weekend, likely
leading to heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, El 
Salvador, and Guatemala. Currently, this system has a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure at 1029 mb near 35N143W dominates the waters N of 
15N and W of 110W, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda 
is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters N 
of 13N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 
10N are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and
NW to N swell.Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 20N
between 120W and 130W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell. 
Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, 
with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough and 
E of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 115W, and 7 to 9
ft in mainly S-SW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 13.1N 
134.3W late this afternoon, reach near 12.3N 135.3W late Sat 
afternoon, weaken to a 30 kt remnant low near 11.4N 136.4W late 
Sun afternoon, and maintain that intensity, reaching near 11.1N 
137.2W Mon morning. Meanwhile, the high pressure NW of the area 
will drift W and weaken slightly across the area waters today 
through the weekend as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks W then SW over
the western portion of the area, resulting in gradually 
diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is 
expected elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW 
reaches the equator and moves through the regional waters through
early next week, reaching to 20N Sun night through Mon. Meanwhile,
northerly swell in the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft 
will linger for the next several days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early
next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$
Stripling