000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220142
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 111.5W from 04N northward to 
17N, moving westward AT 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 108W and 116W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 136.5W from 07N to 20N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 13N to 15N between 132W and 135W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09.5N75.5W
to across Costa Rica to 08N89W to 10N97W to 07N117W to 09.5N134W.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within
07N95W to 11.5N75.5W to 02.5S81.5W to 07N95W. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between
90W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the northern Gulf of California
northward with high pressure ridging to the west of Baja
California. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting 
moderate NW for the waters near Baja California and slightly
weaker more offshore. This pressure pattern is also supporting
fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with
moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters
offshore Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec,
4 to 6 ft offshore SW Mexico, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 to
3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft in the northern Gulf
where the stronger winds are.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf
of California will diminish overnight, with moderate to fresh
winds there through Tue night. Pulsing fresh to locally strong 
north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Wed
night as a diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the 
Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to
moderate to fresh there thereafter. Winds are likely to freshen 
west of Baja California by mid-week as the pressure gradient 
tightens slightly, then increase to fresh to strong mainly north 
of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week and into the weekend.
Winds may build to around 8 ft there by the start of the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Moderate southerly winds are over the 
waters south of the monsoon trough with light and variable winds 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in S to
SW swell south of the monsoon trough, and 4 to 6 ft north of the
monsoon trough. Very active convection with intense lightning
possible is south of the monsoon trough as described above.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to 
east winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Thu, then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala mid-week. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south
of the monsoon trough through the next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 24N and 118W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 
136.5W. Winds near this wave are fresh to locally strong, with 
seas of 8 to 10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
the tropical wave is also allowing for moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds to exist from 11N to 21N between 130W 
and 140W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with 4 to 7
ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are 
moderate, except locally fresh near 140W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft 
in southeast to south swell, except to around 8 ft near the 
Equator at 140W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 136.5W will
move west of 140W Tue with associated winds accompanying it. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft will linger in the wake of the tropical wave
through mid-week as another tropical wave, currently near 111.5W
moves westward. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will linger
from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N through
the week until the second tropical wave exits, with little change
in winds elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky