000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280917
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Oct 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Sonia is centered near 14.8N 122.8W at 28/0900
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Seas near the center are peaking around 14 ft 
(4.5 M). Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within
150 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Sonia is
moving toward the west-northwest and a turn toward the west is 
expected later today, followed by a gradual increase in forward 
speed during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next couple of days, with Sonia expected to 
become a post-tropical remnant low tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Sonia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over NE
Mexico will force strong to gale-force N winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Wed through Fri. Winds will reach 35 to 40 kt Wed 
night through Thu night. Rough seas are expected with these 
winds, peaking around 13 to 14 ft. Seas generated from this event
will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft 
or greater reaching as far south as 09N on Thu night. Winds and 
seas will subside quickly on Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap 
wind event in the Tehuantepec region will begin Sat night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 
12N87W to 15N95W to 10N109W and to 12N117W. The monsoon trough 
then resumes near 12N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is present north of 05N and east 
of 90W and also from 10N to 15N and between 112W and 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is traversing the northern waters of Baja
California, extending from a low pressure system over the SW
United States. Meanwhile, a recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicate that moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring in the
offshore waters of Baja California. A long-period NW swell
propagating across these waters is producing seas of 8-10 ft. 
Farther south, fresh to strong N winds and moderate seas persist 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere in the Mexican 
offshore waters, including the Gulf of California, moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through this morning. Meanwhile, 
building high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra 
Madre mountains in Mexico, in the wake of a strong cold front 
moving across the Gulf of America Wed, will support strong to 
gale-force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Wed 
through Fri. Expect N to NE winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, and 
building seas up to 13 or 14 ft with this gap wind event. Seas 
generated from this event will spread well away from the 
Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south
as 09N on Thu night. Rough seas, in NW swell, will persist 
across the outer forecast waters of Baja California with seas 8 
to 10 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro as additional pulses of long 
period NW swell behind the above mentioned cold front reach the 
area. This swell event will gradually subside today. At the same 
time, the cold front is forecast to dissipate.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Latest satellite-derived wind data show that moderate to fresh
SW-W winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, associated
with the onshore flow on the broad circulation of Major 
Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea. The
strongest winds are in the Gulf of Panama and south of the
Peninsula de Azuero. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact the 
offshore waters of Central America.
 
For the forecast, the enhanced onshore westerly wind flow in
response to the broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Melissa 
located in the central Caribbean Sea will decrease today. Winds 
and seas will diminish thereafter. Meanwhile, rough seas will 
reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu
due to a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh 
to locally strong wind and seas building to 8 ft are forecast for
the Papagayo area Thu night into Sat as high pressure builds 
over the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, long period cross 
equatorial SW swell will propagate across the region toward the 
end of the week, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Sonia centered well SW of Baja California.

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical
eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of
the monsoon trough and west of 115W, as seen in a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass. A decaying long-period swell is 
producing seas of 7-10 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate
the N waters most of the week while Tropical Storm Sonia moves 
westward and continues to weaken. The aforementioned swell event,
combined with seas generated by Sonia, will continue to gradually
subside from W to E today. Tropical Storm Sonia is near 14.8N
122.8W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. 
Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the 
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Sonia will move to 15.0N 
123.9W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 15.1N 125.6W 
Wed morning, 15.0N 127.7W Wed afternoon, 14.6N 129.9W Thu 
morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, long-period 
cross equatorial SW swell will bring rough seas to the forecast 
region by the middle of the week. This swell event will roughly 
cover the waters S of 10N between 105W and 120W by Wed night.

$$
Delgado