000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070837
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W north of 05N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W/112W from 06N to 20N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N101W to 17N111.5W 
to 08N124W. The ITCZ continues from 08N124W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
04N to 13N between 86W and 92W, from 04N to 13N between 99W and
106W, and from 09N to 18N between 106W and 114W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 116W and 
125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds are noted well south of Baja California Sur
associated with a 1009 mb low pressure area. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail over the waters W of the Baja California peninsula.
Gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas
of 5-7 ft are noted over the open waters off Mexico. Over the 
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-3 ft 
prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, 
will prevail across the forecast waters. An area of low pressure 
could form several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico 
late this week. Some gradual development of this system is 
possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward 
well off the coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted over and downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail over the 
regional waters during the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters. Seas of 5 
to 7 ft prevail, with slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft just N of
the ITCZ and W of 135W.

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are anticipated
over the next few days. Cross equatorial southerly swell will
move into the waters S of 05N and W of 100W the middle to end of
the week. 

$$
AL