000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121507
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W from 06N northward across
Costa Rica and into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 10
kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W from 03N to 15N, just
offshore the border of Guatemala and Mexico, moving westward at 5
to 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 06N to 20N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W from 05N to 16N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 132.5W from 04N to 17N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described 
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia at 10N76.5W to across southern Costa Rica to
08N94W to 11N108W to 08N116.5W. The ITCZ is noted from 08N116.5W
to 11N122.5W, resuming west of a tropical wave at 10N125W to
09N131.5W, resuming west of another tropical wave at 08N134W to
beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 86W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 90W and 105W, from
11N to 16.5N between 90W and 96.5W, and from 10.5N to 12N between
124.5W and 126.5W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California 
through the Baja California Peninsula. Locally fresh S to SE 
winds are noted in the northern Gulf as a result of the pressure
gradient between this trough and ridging to the east. Seas of 2 
to 4 ft are noted in this region. Otherwise, ridging extends 
over the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters, supporting
mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in 
mixed NW and S swell.

For the forecast, fresh S to SE winds are expected across the 
northern Gulf of California today as surface troughing dominates
the region. Winds will diminish for the rest of this weekend 
before fresh winds redevelop in the northern Gulf early next 
week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early next week. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected over the 
remainder of the waters into next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft were
noted in the Gulf of Papagayo supported by low pressure over 
northern Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh E winds extend 
beyond the Papagayo region to areas well offshore of El Salvador 
and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds are occurring 
south of the monsoon trough. A long period southern hemisphere 
swell is leading to seas of 5 to 7 ft across the regional waters.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through early afternoon, with 
pulsing moderate winds likely on Sun. Winds will restrengthen to 
fresh to strong speeds by early next week. Elsewhere, a new S to
SW swell will move through the equatorial waters late in the
weekend into early next week, promoting rough seas south of 05N.
Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds will 
occur south of the monsoon trough through early next week, with 
gentle to moderate winds occurring to the north. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Ridging prevails across the waters north of 20N. Mainly moderate
N to NE trades are noted north of 20N and west of 130W, and from
10N to 20N west of 120W. Winds are slightly weaker elsewhere
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh
S to SE winds are occurring over the waters south of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed N and SE swell
dominate the open waters, except rough near the Equator west of
105W.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to dominate the waters 
north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into next week, supporting 
moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds. Moderate seas in 
mixed N and SE swell are expected in this area, with locally 
rough seas possible north of 28N as a new N swell moves into the 
northern waters this weekend, with another set across the same
area by the middle of next week. Elsewhere, rough seas in the 
equatorial waters will temporarily subside today before a new S 
swell moves through the southern waters by Sun. Expect rough seas
south of 07N into the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky