000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112136
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80.5W from near the Azuero
Peninsula northward into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at 
around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 94.5W north of 05N to
southeast Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving westward at
around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 07N to 18N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 06N to 18N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 130.5W from 05N to 15N, 
moving slowly westward at around 5 kt. Nearby convection is 
described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern
Colombia at 10N75.5W to 09N90W to 11.5N110W to 08N133W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N133W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 01N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from
05N to 15.5N between 84W and 97W, from 13N to 17N between 104W
and 111W, and from 06N to 12N between 120W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has been analyzed from over Baja California Sur
to the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SE winds are
in the northern Gulf of California due to a tight pressure 
gradient between the troughing and ridging to the east. Moderate 
to fresh SE winds are in the central Gulf, with gentle to 
moderate in the southern Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of 
California, except to 6 ft in the northern Gulf. Elsewhere, 
ridging extends across the waters offshore of Baja California
Norte. Winds are moderate or less across the remainder of the 
offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft across the 
open waters, except to 6 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and to 7 
ft well offshore Baja California Norte.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds will occur 
across the central and northern Gulf of California into early Sat
as troughing prevails over the region. Moderate to locally fresh
winds will then pulse in this area into early next week. 
Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, possibly
increasing to moderate to fresh next week, with moderate or 
weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Mainly moderate
seas will prevail through at least early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Gentle 
to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. To the south, moderate S to SW winds prevail. A 
long period S to SW swell is moving through the regional waters, 
promoting seas of 4 to 7 ft, with locally rough seas to 8 ft 
occurring south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as low pressure
dominates the south-central Caribbean. Winds will diminish for 
the rest of the weekend before winds restrengthen early next 
week. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds 
will occur south of the monsoon trough into next week. A long 
period S to SW swell will promote rough seas over the equatorial 
waters tonight, with seas subsiding this weekend, then building 
back to rough there early next week. Seas will be mainly 
moderate elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure well north of the areas
southeastward across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Mainly moderate winds prevail north of 10N and west of
120W, except locally fresh west of 130W, with seas of 5 to 7 ft 
in mainly mixed SE and NE swells. Moderate to locally fresh SE 
winds are south of 04N and west of 105W. A long period mixed SW 
and SE swell is moving through the equatorial waters, promoting 
rough seas of 8 to 9 ft south of 04N and west of 850W. Winds are
mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 5 to 7 ft, 
dominated by southerly swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 
moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
west of 125W into early next week as ridging prevails over the 
eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, rough seas over the equatorial waters
will slowly subside tonight, before another modest swell produces
rough seas across the equatorial waters Sat night into early 
next week. Moderate to fresh SE winds will occur south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ through the middle of next week. Seas may
build to rough near 30N this weekend before subsiding by early 
next week.

$$
Lewitsky