240 
AXPZ20 KNHC 202125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N74.5W to 10N83W to 13.5N103W 
to 09N117W to low pres near 10.5N125W 1012 mb. The ITCZ extends
from 10N126W to 09N129W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N east of 89W and from 
09.5N to 13.5N between 94W and 103W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 10.5N to 15.5N between 104W and 112W 
and from 09.5N to 11N between 124W and 126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,
centered on 1020 mb high pressure near 24.5N121W. Recent
satellite scatterometer data shows that this pattern supports 
mainly light to gentle NW to N winds across the Baja waters. Seas
there are 5-7 ft in NW swell. Similar light to gentle N-NW winds
are also found throughout the Gulf of California. Elsewhere 
across the Mexican waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, 
light and variable winds and moderate seas to 5 ft prevail. 
Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds developed this morning across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend a narrow plume southwestward 
and offshore of Puerto Angel. Moderate easterly winds then
continue from offshore of Puerto Angel to well offshore of 
Colima. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within this narrow plume across
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, building high pressure across the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico will combine with broad
low pressure across the SW Caribbean to support an early season 
gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region, today through Thu 
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds, reaching near 30 kt, and
moderate to rough seas to near 7 ft, are expected overnight 
through early morning with this event most of the week. Long 
period NW swell will propagate across the offshore waters of Baja
California through the forecast period, supporting moderate to 
rough seas. Winds will freshen in the offshore waters of Baja 
California by midweek and continue through Thu evening as the 
pressure gradient tightens some across the area between the high 
pressure ridge to the west and lower pressures over north- 
central Mexico. Looking ahead, a tropical wave across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms ahead of it, across the offshore waters of Oaxaca 
and Guerrero. Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for gradual development of the system, and a tropical 
depression could form late in the week as it moves generally 
westward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining off the coast of Mexico.

Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in 
late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may 
occur as early as September, and as late as May. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms are seen 
across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, 
including the Gulf of Panama, associated with a Caribbean tropical
wave. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate 
moderate SW winds south of the monsoon trough, and light to 
gentle winds to the north of it. Seas in these waters are 
moderate in mixed S and SW swell. 
 
For the forecast, NE gap winds across the Papagayo region will 
increase to fresh tonight and pulse to strong on Tue, then 
gradually diminish through Wed. Moderate S to SW winds and 
moderate seas are expected south of the monsoon trough through 
the forecast period. Winds may briefly increase to fresh speeds 
on Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1030 mb high pressure is located N of area near 39N140W. It 
extends a broad ridge to the south and southeast, and covers the 
forecast waters N of 15N and W of 113W. Fresh to locally strong 
winds are noted from 10N to 15N between 121W and 127W, associated
with a 1012 mb low center along the monsoon through near
10.5N125W. Seas there are 7-9 ft. Moderate winds are found 
elsewhere from 10N to 20N and W of 115W. Moderate seas of 5-7 ft 
are within these winds. Moderate E-NE winds dominate the NW 
corner of the forecast region, and extend southward to 10N to 
the W of 130W. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are 
found south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the N waters, particularly N of 10N and W 
of 120W, where moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are 
expected early this week. A tightening pressure gradient between 
the ridge and a westward-moving low pressure center along the 
monsoon trough near 125W will support fresh to strong winds and 
rough seas near the low center as it moves westward through at 
least the middle portion of this week.

$$
Stripling