950 
AXPZ20 KNHC 261449
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the Gulf of America through late Thu. The pressure gradient
between strong high pressure building in the wake of the front
and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh 
to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
today into tonight. These winds will increase to gale force by 
early Thu. A plume of fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and seas 
of 8 to 10 ft will reach into Pacific waters up to 480 nm 
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Thu. Winds and seas
will diminish Fri and Sat as the high pressure north of the area
shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. Please refer
to the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC and at website
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77.5W to 08N108W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed 
from 06N to 11.5N between 111W and 123.5W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 06.5N to 09N between 100W and 111W, 
from 05N to 09.5N between 125W and 129.5W, and from 07N to 09N 
between 137W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a
developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail over the Gulf of California,
reaching strong speeds over the central and northern portions. 
Gentle to moderate winds extend from the entrance of the Gulf to
near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of the Baja California 
peninsula extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands and 
eastward to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 3-6 ft 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will increase to gale force by early Thu morning 
through Fri morning leading to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds 
will then persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Sat 
before diminishing. Farther north, moderate to fresh winds, 
briefly strong at times, in the Gulf of California will diminish 
later this morning. A weak cold front or trough will move into 
the waters off northern Baja California, possibly supporting 
moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across the northern Gulf of 
California Sun night. No significant swell events are forecast
through the upcoming weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Papagayo region, with 
moderate winds extending downstream. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate
winds are found south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range in mixed SW and NW swells.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over and
downstream of the Papagayo region the remainder of the week and 
into next weekend, locally strong at times. Moderate or lighter 
winds are forecast elsewhere through the week and into next 
weekend. No significant swells are forecast through Sun, however
seas will build slightly in the Papagayo region due to the fresh
to strong winds, and offshore Guatemala due to a developing gale
force gap wind event NW of the area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between ridging north of 20N and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to
fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 17N and west of 130W. The 
trade winds are contributing to 7-10 ft combined seas from 04N to
19N between 107W and 104W, assisted by a component of longer- 
period NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas in
a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. Very active convection is 
near the monsoon trough in central portions as described above 
aided at the mid-to-upper level transporting moisture well to the
northeast toward the SW United States and NW Mexico.

Fresh trade winds and 7-10 ft seas in the trade wind belt will 
gradually decrease through Thu as the high pressure north of the 
area weakens. A new set of NW swell with rough seas may arrive by
the end of the week and into next weekend north of 25N. Moderate
winds and seas will persist elsewhere through Sun. Looking ahead,
a much more significant set of NW swell may arrive to the NW
waters by the end of the weekend.
 
$$
Lewitsky