729 
AXPZ20 KNHC 181507
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N108W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N108W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is ongoing from 09N to 13N between 113W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 26N112W to 17N127W. A cold front 
is analyzed from 30N115W to 23N139W. Latest scatterometer data 
depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front 
is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell mainly N of
28N. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of the front in the
northern Gulf of California, with moderate seas. A weak pressure
gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds with 
moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the remainder 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong winds will prevail across the northern 
Gulf of California ahead of the cold front through tonight. The 
cold front will move SE, reaching Punta Eugenia this evening 
while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by 
Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across 
the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. 
Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large 
swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Punta Eugenia 
through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and downwind to near 88W. Elsewhere across the Central America 
offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. 
Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to  
moderate from the south, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to
prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight 
to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of 
Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate
seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at 
night. Moderate seas are forecast to develop with these winds.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough from 26N112W to 17N127W. A cold front 
is analyzed from 30N115W to 23N139W. Latest scatterometer data 
depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front 
is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell, which are 
already affecting the waters N of 25N and E of 132W. Elsewhere N
of the ITCZ and W of 127W, a surface ridge prevails, being 
anchored by a 1025 mb high center located near 32N137W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are 
present.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through
early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long 
period NW swell. This swell will propagate across much of the 
waters N Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Thu. High pressure in 
the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and 
rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through Thu. 
The next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night
into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a
low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal 
boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to 
move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. 
Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated 
with this low. 

$$
ERA