000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082333 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2333 UTC Sun Feb 08 2026

Updated forecast for the Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
a ridge that extends from the western Gulf of America southward 
to southeastern Mexico and lower pressure associated with the 
eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will again induce gale-force
northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early 
Mon, diminish to fresh to near gale force into early Tue, to 
moderate to fresh speeds afterward into Wed afternoon, then pulse
at fresh to near gale speeds late Wed night into early Thu, and 
diminish to fresh to strong speeds afterward into Thu night. Peak
seas with these winds may reach to near 10 ft before subsiding 
to 8 ft in west to northwest swell Tue afternoon. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse across the Papagayo region during the next 
several days. These winds there will reach minimal gale-force 
tonight due to the pressure gradient between high pressure 
centered over the western Gulf of America and relatively lower 
pressure associated with the eastern north Pacific monsoon 
trough. Rough seas will accompany these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is not presently identifiable. A surface 
trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to 02N79W 
and to near the Equator at 85.5W. The ITCZ is identified to 
begin south of the Equator at 01S87W and to 01S105W to 03N120W 
to 04N130W and to beyond 04N140W. No significant convection is 
noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section above for details.

Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest
to north winds are west of Baja California as well as to the 
southwest of the peninsula, while light and variable winds are 
prevail elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are mostly
in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California
while mostly gentle northwest winds are in the northern section. 
Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the central and southern sections of the
Gulf and 2 to 3 ft in the northern section. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are over the Mexican waters, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft
in long-period west to northwest swell north of 17N and west of 
107W.

For the forecast aside from the soon to begin once again Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale event, the long-period northwest swell north of 
17N and west of 107W will begin to decay tonight. A cold front 
is expected to move across the waters west of Baja California Norte 
from late Tue into Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong southeast 
winds are expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California 
on Tue ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, a set of northwest swell 
in the wake of the front may move through the outermost offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed before decaying 
Wed night. Fresh to strong southeast are expected to develop in the 
far northern Gulf of California on Tuesday  

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see
the Special Features section above for details.

Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo conditions, moderate to fresh 
northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the 
offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of 
Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, mostly fresh 
north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will increase to 
fresh to strong by early this evening, diminish to moderate to 
fresh speeds late Mon night and continue with little change 
through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1031 mb is analyzed north of the area at
31N132W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Afternoon scatterometer satellite data 
passes reveal light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 25N and 
west of 126W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and
lower pressure to the south associated with the ITCZ is 
producing fresh to strong trades from 07N to 16N west of 130W, 
and fresh trades elsewhere from 05N to 19N west of about 124W. 
Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest 
swell mixed with wind generated waves, except mixed with 
northeast to east swell west of about 128W. Fresh east winds 
generated from the recent Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event
have spread westward to near 105W.

For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest
swell will slowly subside to around 8 ft through Tue. The trades
over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some 
late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part 
of the area, and the high pressure that is in place shifts 
eastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft
in northwest swell. Seas 12 ft and greater are expected along 
and just north of 30N and between 128W and 131W at that time.

$$
Aguirre