000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281524
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
America will continue to funnel winds across the Chivela Pass, 
producing N to NE gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu 
morning. Winds of 35-40 kt and rough seas were observed this 
morning across the Tehuantepec region, and similar conditions 
will continue through Thursday morning. There will be a brief 
reprieve over the Tehuantepec region from Thu afternoon into Fri
afternoon, while the gap winds reduce down to moderate to fresh.
A new strong cold front pushing across the Gulf of America will 
usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec
region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak as severe gales
with seas as much as 18 ft Sat afternoon and evening. N to NE
gales look to continue into early next week. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details 
on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N84W to 
06N88W. The ITCZ continues from 06N88W to beyond 06N140W. 
Isolated moderate convection is noted from 05-09N between 
122W-128W.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for 
more details.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging W of the Baja
Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of
California region supports moderate to fresh NW winds funneling 
through the Gulf of California with 2-4 ft seas. Aside from the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of 
the Mexican waters are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas in NW
swell. A band of moderate convection is occurring from the
Revillagigedo Islands northeastward to offshore Sinaloa, driven
by an upper level trough W of the region.

For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is helping to force moderate 
to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California before 
diminishing Sat night. Large NW swell will reach the waters west 
of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Papagayo region this evening with seas 6-8 ft. N moderate to 
fresh winds are also observed over the Gulf of Panama with seas 
3-5 ft. Elsewhere, the strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event 
is forcing NW to N swell of up to 10 ft across the Guatemala and
El Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast 
waters, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the W 
Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the 
Papagayo region through Fri morning. After a brief reprieve Fri 
afternoon to Sat afternoon, these NE to E strong to near-gale
force gap winds will resume over the Papagayo region Sat night 
into Sun morning. Gale-force winds are possible Sun night. The 
same high pressure will force moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a 
strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing large NW to N 
swell spreading across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters 
should continue through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new 
Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large NW to
N swell over Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night into early
next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high near 33N129W extends a ridge across much of the
remaining Eastern Pacific waters. The relatively weak pressure 
gradient between the highs and lower pressure in the deep tropics 
is forcing generally moderate to fresh NE trades from the Equator
to about 20N. Large NW swell is impacting our NW corner, 
northwest of a line from 30N131W to 21N140W. The strong Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event is forcing N to NE swell of 8-10 ft 
down to 04N between 92W-107W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in 
mixed swell.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will
enhance the trades causing a larger area of fresh to locally strong
NE winds and seas 6-8 ft from Thu through Fri. The large NW 
swell will continue moving southeastward reaching 07N by Fri and
gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will 
reach 30N140W with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the 
boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it 
moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large 
NW swell will follow the cold front this weekend.

$$
Adams