000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022021
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Feb 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure across north of the area and the eastern north 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting strong gale-force winds in
the Tehuantepec region. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed
40-45 kt wind barbs. Very rough seas up to 16 ft are also 
present. A recent ship observation well downwind of the Gulf near
12N95W reported seas near 14 ft. Winds will very gradually 
diminish, falling below gale-force by Tue morning. Another gale 
force gap wind event is possible in Tehuantepec starting the 
middle of the week into next weekend.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Near-gale to gale-force NE to E 
gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will prevail through Tue 
morning as an Arctic high pressure over the eastern United States
helps maintain a tight pressure gradient. Recent ASCAT
scatterometer data showed numerous wind barbs right around gale-
force. Seas will peak near 12 ft with these winds. Fresh to
strong winds will then pulse through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Significant W-NW Swell Event: A potent weather system will bring
gale-force winds just NW of 30N140W tonight through Tue. Rough
seas are already spreading southeast of 30N140W, and seas will
build to 12 ft or greater near 30N140W by early Tue. Seas of 12
ft or greater will then cover the waters west of a line from
30N135W to 26N140W by early Wed, then west of a line from 30N131W
to 19N140W by early Thu, and west of a line from 30N123W to
15N133W by early Fri. Seas are forecast to peak around 20 ft near
30N140W Wed night into early Thu. Seas will then gradually
subside to just less than 12 ft by early Sat, while a large
surround area of 8 ft or greater covers much of the waters west
of 110W by then.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77.5W to 08N84W to 03N97W to
04N105W. The ITCZ extends from 04N105W to 08N125W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 90W and 99W, from 07N to 11N between 128W and 137W, and
from 11N to 17N between 124W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please 
see the Special Features section above for more details.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are moderate or weaker
with moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California, and
except for rough seas moving into the waters off Baja California
Norte.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of NW
swell will continue to impact the waters west of the Baja 
California peninsula through Tue night. Another set of large NW 
swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of 
the week, spreading across the waters W of 105W during the 
upcoming weekend. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see
the Special Features section above for more details.

Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong winds prevail 
in the Gulf of Panama and elsewhere near the Azuero Peninsula
with locally rough seas possible with those winds. Similar winds
are found near and downwind of the Gulf of Fonseca as confirmed 
by recent ASCAT data. Rough seas are well offshore Guatemala and 
western El Salvador due to a persistent and strong gale-force gap
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale-force 
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to
very rough seas over the western Guatemala and El Salvador 
waters through the early part of the week, and then again late 
this week with another gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event will 
merge with this area to maintain rough and confused seas early 
this week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds along with rough 
seas will impact the Gulf of Panama through Wed morning, with 
similar conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to fresh 
winds will then pulse in the Gulf of Panama for the remainder of 
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A Significant W-NW Swell event is forecast for the NW and
northern waters. Please see the Special Features section above 
for more details.

A leading and separate set of large NW swell, with seas in the 8
to 11 ft range prevails over the waters west of a line from 
30N117W to 10N130W to 04N140W. Rough seas generated from a 
strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event and a gale- 
force Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event are over the discussion 
waters north of 02N between 88W and 108W. Elsewhere, surface 
ridging prevails across the waters north of 20N and west of 110W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 120W. 
Elsewhere, moderate winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, 
prevail, except arriving fresh to strong southerly winds
spreading into the waters just southeast of 30N140W.

For the forecast, aside from the Significant W-NW swell event
described in the Special Features, seas greater than 8 ft with a
separate and leading set of NW swell will spread SE through the 
early part of this week before starting to subside below 8 ft by 
mid-week. Fresh to strong southerly winds will impact the NW 
waters much of this week with a gale-force system just to the NW 
of 30N140W. High pressure is forecast to build in the wake of
that system, with fresh to strong trades possible from 07N to 20N
and west of 120W during the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, confused
seas generated by ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of
Papagayo gales will continue to impact the open waters downwind
of those Gulfs into mid-week before subsiding. Similar seas are
possible over generally the same open waters late in the week and
into next weekend, with the next possible gale event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec.

$$
Lewitsky