000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310919
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure building across eastern Mexico in the wake of a 
strong cold front in the Gulf of America and the eastern north 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force winds in the 
Tehuantepec region. These winds should reach strong- gale force, 
with seas peaking in excess of 20 ft later today through Sun 
morning. Winds will diminish below gale force Tue morning. 
Another gale force gap wind event is possible in Tehuantepec 
starting Wed night or Thu morning.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo will reach gale-force Sun night through 
early Tue as an Arctic high pressure building over the eastern 
United States helps tighten the pressure gradient. Seas will peak
near 12 ft Sun night and Mon.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 03N96W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N96W to 06N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 115W and 
120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
early next week. Please see the Special Features section above 
for more details.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient 
between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface 
trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds
in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate over 
these waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 
moderate seas.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to 
strong NW to N winds across the Gulf of California will diminish 
this afternoon. A set of NW swell will impact the waters west of 
the Baja California peninsula late Sun night through Tue. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A Gale Warning is expected for the Gulf of Papagayo starting Sun
night. Please see the Special Features section above for more 
details.

Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region 
extending westward to near 88W. Moderate to fresh gap winds are 
over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale force 
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to
very rough seas over the western Guatemala and El Salvador 
waters tonight through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds 
along with rough seas are also expected near the Gulf of Panama 
this evening through Tue night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
trades from north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 118W.
A cold front is approaching the NW waters. Large NW swell 
generated from that system has moved into the NW waters, with 
seas in the 8-12 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and 
moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken 
and dissipate through Sun. Large NW swell over the NW waters, 
with rough to very rough seas, will impact the waters north of 
15N and west of 125W through Sun, with rough seas further 
spreading southeastward to cover the waters north of 05N and west
of 120W by Mon before gradually subsiding. Another set of large
NW swell will bring rough to very rough seas over the NW waters
by Tue.  

$$
AL