000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120853
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 01N95W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N95W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the ITCZ and W of 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extents across Baja California Norte and the 
northern Gulf of California. Large NW swell to 10 ft is following
the front. Gentle breezes and moderate NW swell are noted 
elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, the front will continue to weaken across Baja 
California Norte through today. Large NW swell will continue to 
follow the front today, reaching the outer waters off Baja 
California Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro by Thu. Another front 
will approach Baja California Fri and reinforce the previous 
front, with fresh NW winds and large swell north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. The front will stall and dissipate Sat over the central 
Gulf and California and Baja California Sur. The next cold front 
may approach Baja California early next week, followed by another
round of large NW swell. Farther south, fresh to strong gap 
winds and rough seas will pulse tonight into Thu night over the 
Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds may again be active across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale force NW to W winds, with seas 5 to 8 ft 
prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N 
winds and seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle 
breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are found elsewhere in a mix of swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will
persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region into Sat. Fresh N
winds across the Gulf of Panama will diminish through tonight. 
Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Long-period NW swell of 8 to 9 ft follows a stationary front 
reaching from Baja California Norte near to 20N126W. To the NW, 
a 1016 mb occluded low center is near 28N132W, along with an 
associated cold front reaching southwest to 23N135W to 24N140W,
and warm front from 26N130W to 26N127W. These features are 
moving to the southeast, followed by strong to near-gale winds 
and reinforcing swell to 15 ft. This swell is merging with the 
older NW swell behind the first front. Gentle to moderate breezes
and seas to 7 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the 1016 mb low pressure will continue to move
south through tonight, then merge with and reinforce the 
previous cold front. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 15 ft 
will impact the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through Thu.
Meanwhile, the older NW swell to 9 ft will persist elsewhere 
north of 20N, and north of 10N and west of 130W in lingering 
trade wind swell. The low pressure will dissipate on Fri and the
merged front will weaken as it continues east through Baja 
California and the norther part of the Gulf of California. Winds 
will diminish follow the front, but large 8 to 11 ft N to NW 
swell will persist north of 10N and west of 125W. The front will 
dissipate across the central Gulf of California and Baja 
California Sur. High pressure will extend across the waters north
of 20N this weekend, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds 
over the deep tropics west of 115W. Seas will be 6 to 8 ft north 
of 10N and west of 115W by then, with moderate winds and seas 
elsewhere. A new cold front will approach 30N140W late Sat, then 
move eastward across the waters north of 20N and west of 120W 
through early next week followed by a new round of strong wind 
and rough seas, with NW swell of 12 to 17 ft possible north of 
20N and west of 125W by Mon.

$$
ERA