736 
AXPZ20 KNHC 292112
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave analyzed along about 124W at 1200 UTC this
morning, has evolved into an elongated area of low pressure, and  
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms between 114W and 129W that is beginning to show 
signs of organization. A 1008 mb surface low has recently been 
analyzed near 11.5N 123W. Gradual development of this system is 
possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical 
depression could form by the middle of this week while the system
moves generally northwestward and then north- northwestward. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by
the end of the week, ending its chances of development. This 
system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation within
48 hours and a high chance within 7 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 105W, south of 15N, moving westward 
around 15 kt. Associated convection is about the ITCZ in this 
area and described below. 

A tropical wave previously analyzed along 124W has evolved into
an elongated area of low pressure, and is being monitored for
potential tropical cyclone development, Invest EP95. See the 
Special Features section above for specific information on this
system. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 15.5N between 114W and 129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N7W to 05N79W to 09N84W to 08N93W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N93W to 09.5N104W, then from 09N106W 
to 08N111W to 12.5N122W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 85W, and from
01N to 011N W of 129W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 06N to 13N between 95W and 109W, and from 04.5N to 
16N between 111W and 129W. 
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from strong high pressure located 
well N of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N140W to
just NE of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Strong to gale 
force winds farther north and offshore of California are 
generating typical NW swell moving into the Baja waters, with 
seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside 
the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh SW to W gap 
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the northern Gulf, 
while moderate to fresh S winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft generally 
prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds 
dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to 
near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- 
equatorial S swell. A narrow plume of fresh N to NE gap winds 
continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to 
near 14.5N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. 

For the forecast, the broad ridge across the region today will
remain intact through Tue then begin to drift westward and weaken
slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern will 
produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through 
Fri, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and 
evening. Moderate NW swell moving into these area waters will 
continue near 8 ft across the outer Baja Norte waters through 
Thu. A narrow plume of fresh N to NE gap winds and moderate to 
rough seas are expected to continue to pulse to strong across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning 
hours each night and morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW
gap winds will also pulse in the northern Gulf of California 
tonight through early Tue morning, and then become moderate to 
fresh Tue through Wed morning. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE 
gap winds dominating the Papagayo region and extending offshore
to 92W and northward across coastal Nicaragua to the Gulf of 
Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Satellite 
scatterometer data also showed moderate to fresh N winds across 
the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 03.5N, where seas are 4
to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell 
prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia 
offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 7 
ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N
between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Thunderstorms remain 
active this afternoon from 02N to 06N E of 85W.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate
to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region 
throughout the week, as a strong ridge persists north of the
region. NE to E swell generated by these winds are expected to 
maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 
90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep 
moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off
Ecuador until midweek. Periods of heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, spreading to 
south of Costa Rica and Panama by this evening.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extending from N of the Hawaiian Islands 
southeastward through 30N140W to just NE of the Revillagigedo 
Islands is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 8
ft seas to the N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. East of 120W and 
north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to 
E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. A
1008 mb surface low has developed this afternoon near 11.5N 123W,
in association with a tropical wave, and is being monitored for 
tropical development, Invest EP95. Scattered to numerous 
convection remains active about this broad cyclonic low level 
circulation. Fresh E to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found 
within 300 nm across the N semicircle of this broad low. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are 
noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally
fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S 
to SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. 

For the forecast, gradual development of Invest EP95 is possible
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by the middle of this week while the system moves 
generally northwestward and then northward. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of 
the week, ending its chances of development. Regardless of 
development, a gradual increase of winds and seas is expected 
along the northern portion of this area of low pressure this 
week, as a broad high pressure ridge persists N of the area. 
Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of 
the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual 
decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.

$$
Stripling