000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091534
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W to the north of 02N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 113W, from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 139W from 01N to 16N, moving 
westward at around 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 06N122W. The ITCZ is 
from 06N122W to 05N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is active within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough and E
of 100W, and within 150 nm on either side of the trough between
100W-130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the waters off Baja 
California. Latest altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were
up to 8 ft in the waters farther offshore, due to NW swell. 
Farther south, the scatterometer pass confirmed strong to near- 
gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 
estimated to be 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft 
seas are evident elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, ridging off Baja California is weakening as pressure
lowers over the Colorado River Valley, allowing winds to 
diminish today, although NW swell to 8 ft will persist beyond 90
nm offshore through tonight. The pattern will also support fresh
to strong S winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight
through Fri night. Farther south, pulses of fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early 
next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this
weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- 
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, 
and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form 
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure 
may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough
seas offshore of Oaxaca and Chiapas by Sun night, and off 
Guerrero by Mon night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh NE to E 
gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua, 
extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 6-7 ft.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N. Moderate 
SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands,
where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are 
across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in 
SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night 
and into the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight
to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. An area of low pressure
is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several
hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical 
depression could form next week while the system moves generally 
west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, 
the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds 
and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala 
by Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting 
moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. 
Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted farther S near the 
tropical wave near 139W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted 
elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 04N between 
90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will accompany the 
tropical wave near 139W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt, past 
140W tonight. Farther north, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north 
of 25N to the east of 125W into Fri. Farther south, large swell 
to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W 
through Fri. A broad area of low pressure may become better 
organized this weekend into early next week over the tropical 
eastern Pacific west of 130W, although chances of tropical 
cyclone development remain low through the next seven days.

$$
ERA