000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230913
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave previously analyzed along 88W, from the Gulf of 
Honduras southward through Central America and into the eastern 
Pacific, has been removed from the 0600 UTC surface analysis. The
northern portion of this wave has sheared off to the NW in the 
form of a low to middle-level wind surge moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula, and the southern portion of the wave has
become absorbed in the elongated monsoonal circulation across 
the eastern tropical Pacific between 75W and 95W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection remains active across the waters 
east of 93W ad is described below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 11N83W to 08N95W to 
11.5N105W to 10.5N115W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W
to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
occurring from 03.5N northward to Central America east of 93W, 
from 05.5N to 12N between 93W and 106W, and from 07N to 11N 
between 107W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed through the northern Gulf of 
California southward along the eastern coastline of central and
southern Baja California, while weak high pressure prevails over
the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate 
to locally fresh southerly winds through the Gulf of California,
becoming S fo SW across northern portions, as recently depicted
by satellite scatterometer data. Seas in the Gulf range from 2 
to 3 ft north portions to 3 to 5 ft south and central portions. 
West of Baja California, a 1036 mb high remains centered well 
northwest of the area near 39N147W and extends a ridge to near 
22N115W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to
locally fresh NW winds occurring across the Baja offshore waters
north of Cabo San Lazaro, and fresh NW winds occurring north 
through west of Isla Guadalupe. NW swell moving through the Baja
waters has begun to slowly subside tonight, and are 5 to 8 ft
across these waters, except to 9 ft northwest of Isla Guadalupe.  
Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas
of 4 to 6 ft in mixed northwest and south swell prevail offshore
of southern and southwestern Mexico to Tehuantepec. Nocturnal
thunderstorms have moved southward off the coast of Oaxaca and 
Guerrero, and extend to near 90 nm off the coast. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pressure pattern 
is expected across the region throughout the upcoming week. 
Moderate NW to N winds are expected to continue across the Baja 
offshore waters through early Fri, pulsing to locally fresh along
the coasts each late afternoon through evening. Winds will 
diminish slightly Fri into the upcoming weekend. NW swell 
dominating area seas will slowly subside today through Wed. In 
the Gulf of California, moderate S to SW winds will continue to 
pulse to fresh through Tue as troughing prevails over the region.
Briefly strong winds will be possible in the northern Gulf Mon 
night. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Mon night through midweek as low pressure moves south
of the area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate to strong convection remains active across 
much of waters south and east of Guatemala to Costa Rica, with 
additional thunderstorms occurring nearshore of Panama and 
western Colombia. Strong and gusty winds and rapidly building 
seas are likely near thunderstorms. Recent satellite scatterometer
data showed moderate to fresh monsoonal SW winds and moderate 
seas east of 90W and south of the monsoon trough, along about 
10N. Locally strong SW winds and rough seas to 8 ft are noted 
well offshore of Costa Rica and Panama, near areas of active 
convection. To the north of 10N, moderate NE to E winds are 
pulsing to fresh across the Papagayo region, and extend offshore
to 90W.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds across the Papagayo region
are expected today and will become fresh to strong tonight as 
low pressure organizes to the southwest. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and locally rough seas are expected to continue in this 
region and expand westward into the waters offshore of El 
Salvador and Guatemala Mon into midweek as this developing low 
pressure strengthens to the south of this area. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of
this low, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the 
middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward, 
and off the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. 
There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next two 
days, and a high chance of formation within the next seven days.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica 
and Nicaragua through the early part of this week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1036 mb high remains centered northwest of the area near 
39N147W and extends ridging south through southeastward across
the regional waters of the eastern Pacific W of 115W. This 
system is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 14N
between 120W and 130W, and fresh NE to E winds north of 13N and
west of 130W. Rough seas in mixed N and NE swell prevail over 
this region, with the highest seas to 10 ft occurring north of 
28N and east of 125W. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and 
east of 120W, gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas 
are noted. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 6 
ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough. west of 
130W 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue 
west of 120W through Mon evening as high pressure persists to 
the north of the area, before winds diminish slightly Tue through 
midweek. Rough seas north of 15N will slowly subside today 
through midweek. Elsewhere, moderate cross-equatorial S to SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters this week, 
supporting rough seas to 8 ft in this region this afternoon
through Wed. Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds will prevail 
south of the monsoon trough.

$$
Stripling