000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.5N 130.5W at 1500 UTC,
moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt 
with gusts to 45 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Seas to 4 m are found within 45 nm across the N
semicircle with maximum seas estimated at 4.5 m. Scattered
moderate to strong convection continues within 90 nm across the
NW semicircle of the center, as E-SE vertical wind shear persists
this morning. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within
150 nm across the east semicircle. Some minor strengthening is 
possible today and tonight as Amanda remains in a somewhat 
favorable environment, before conditions begin to become 
unfavorable after 24 hours. A gradual turn toward the west- 
northwest and west is expected during the next couple of days. A 
turn toward the southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast 
this weekend as Amanda weakens.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 93W S of 13N, moving W near 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05.5N to 13N between 
86W and 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N72W to 10N81W to 11.5N85W to 
09.5N93W to 1010 mb low pressure near 12.5N106W 1010 mb to 
09N118W to 10N124W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda 
near 09N132W and continues to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N
to 08N E of 85W, and from 04N to 16.5N between 86W and 110W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N 
to 11N W of 116W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure center located near
32N145W, extends southeastward across the Baja California  
waters to S of the Revillagigedo Islands, producing moderate to 
locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW 
swell. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail, with 
seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell near the 
entrance to the Gulf. Across the remainder of the offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the waters W of Baja California through 
the upcoming weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds.
Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia late today into Fri. 
Additional pulses of NW swell will continue to reach the region 
into early next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form
offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual
development of this system into early next week, and a tropical 
depression could form during this time as it moves slowly 
northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico. 
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the Gulf of
America and western Caribbean today. This pattern is yielding light
to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters, with
gentle to moderate gap winds extending offshore to beyond 90W
from the Papagayo region. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in building SW 
swell. except 6 to 8 ft E through S of the Galapagos Islands. 
Scattered thunderstorms remain active off the coast of Colombia
as well as the waters near Nicaragua and El Salvador, with winds
and seas are likely higher. Gentle S to SW winds prevail over 
the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands, 
Ecuador and Colombia.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas, with highest
seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is forecast to form
along the monsoon trough offshore of Central America and 
southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next 
week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. Currently,
this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in
7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters N of 16N and W of 
110W, extending southeastward to S of the Revillagigedo Islands.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is 
promoting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across most of 
the area N of 10N and W of 125W based on recent satellite scatterometer
data. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a 
mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds 
are S of the monsoon trough with seas of 6 to 7 ft W of 120W, 
and 7 to 9 ft between 90W and 120W. 

The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of 
the week as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks toward the NW then W 
over the western portion of the area, resulting in diminishing 
winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected 
elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Amanda is forecast to move to 13N 131.5W at a 40
kt T.S. late this afternoon, reach 13.3N 132.7W Fri morning,
reach 13.0N 134.2W Sat morning, then begin to weaken and turn
toward the southwest, reaching near 12.2N 135.2W Sun morning as a
post-tropical remnant low.

$$
Stripling