000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140838
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hernan is centered near 16.1N 131.9W at 14/0900
UTC, moving south at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft or 4 m. Hernan is a very sheered
tropical cyclone with numerous moderate isolated strong 
convection noted between 180 nm and 510 nm in the NE quadrant of
Hernan. Hernan is moving toward the south, and this general 
motion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south-
southwest on Fri. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on 
Saturday with that motion continuing through the weekend.
Hernan is forecast to become a tropical depression on Fri and a 
post-tropical cyclone early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of the Equator to
southern Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving 
west around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over 
northern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 09.5N85W to 07N102W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N102W to 10.5N112W to 07.5N125W to 09N130W. 
Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W, from 02N to
05.5N between 91W and 101W, from 06N to 11N between 101W and
107W, from 06N to 13N between 107W and 113W, and within 360 nm
south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 130W. Similar 
convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh SW gap winds are 
impacting the northern Gulf of California as confirmed by recent
ASCAT scatterometer data. NW moderate to locally fresh winds are
nearshore of Baja California, mainly the southern portion. 
Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate seas are 
over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas 
over the central and southern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh SW winds in the the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish by the afternoon. Pulses of fresh to 
strong gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through early next week, near gale-force overnight at times, 
along with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds are forecast off Baja California through the next several 
days. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to 
moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico 
along with moderate seas. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh easterly gap winds and moderate seas persist across and 
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh NW to
N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with similar wind speeds but
out of the south near the Gulf of Guayaquil. Gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas in S to SW swell prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and occasionally
rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through early
next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Moderate winds may freshen south 
of the monsoon trough this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are 
forecast elsewhere. Large southerly swell will start to move into
the region today and tonight, then again early next week, with 
rough seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Mon and
Tue. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical 
Storm Hernan. 

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Outside the
immediate area impacted by Hernan, the pressure gradient between
the ridge, Hernan, and Tropical Storm Lala in the central 
Pacific is supporting fresh to locally strong winds, and rough 
seas, from 16N to 22N between 126W and 137W. Rough seas in 
southerly swell cover the waters south of 06N between 95W and 
127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere, locally fresh south of the Equator and west of 100W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Hernan will weaken to a tropical 
depression near 15.9N 132.4W this afternoon, become a remnant 
low and move to 15.5N 133.9W Sat morning, 15.2N 135.8W Sat 
afternoon, 15.1N 137.8W Sun morning, 15.1N 140.1W Sun afternoon, 
and dissipate Mon morning, when remnant rough seas should also 
subside. Elsewhere, southerly swell will maintain rough seas over
the discussion waters south of about 05N between 95W and 130W 
through the end of the week, then south of 02N between 95W and 
125W this weekend. Another set of southerly swell is forecast to 
bring rough seas to the waters south of 06N between 90W and 125W 
early next week. Main moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
elsewhere, except locally fresh near a passing tropical wave 
currently near 97W, and in the northwest waters where the 
pressure gradient will be regionally tight.

$$
Lewitsky