000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032122
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 93W-94W, south of 16N, moving west at 
15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 103W, south of 16N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in 
the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 06N80W to 09.5N86W 
to 08N95W to 02.5N107W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N115W
to 07N124W to 10.5N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered to locally 
numerous to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 10.5N east 
of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N to 14.5N between 92W and 101W and from 03N to 12.5N 
between 105W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW 
and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes
and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh NW to N
gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue in a narrow 
plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 14.5N
this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore 
the coasts from Chiapas and Guerrero, S of 14.5N, and continue to
shift westward. 

For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California 
will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming 
moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California 
starting Sat evening through Tue, as the high pressure builds 
modestly into the area. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the 
Tehuantepec region will pulse again to strong tonight through Sat
morning, then diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, 
large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off southern 
Mexico early next week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to locally numerous strong convection is occurring
across the western half of Panama and southeastern Costa Rica and
extends across the near and offshore waters south and 
southwestward to the NE of the Galapagos Islands. Frequent
lightning with strong and gusty winds and locally rough seas
accompany this activity. Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap 
winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend 
offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. 
Gentle to moderate SW to W breezes are noted elsewhere to the 
south. Cross-equatorial SW swell dominate the area waters,
producing seas of 5 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft between the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms area
expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters
through early Sun before activity begin to shift northward into
the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse at
night across the Papagayo region into early next week, leading 
to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will 
dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to 
the N of 04N through Sun morning, before increasing to near 8 ft
off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun evening through Tue, and 5 to 
7 ft across the northern Central America early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Douglas are centered near 20N 
128.5W at 1800 UTC, moving north-northwest around 7 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent satellite
scatterometer data showed maximum sustained winds of around 30 
kt. Satellite altimeter data also shows seas of 3.5 to 4.0 m 
extend up to 180 nm N and NW of the center. The gale warning for 
this area has thus ended. Showers and thunderstorms continue to 
diminish with this system and are now confined to a modest 
cluster from 90 to 240 nm across the N semicircle. Elsewhere, a 
broad northeastern Pacific ridge persists across the waters to 
the north of the remnants of Douglas, and extend southeastward 
into the offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and this low pressure system are 
producing fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft N of 27N and 
across the waters N through NW of the low. Moderate to fresh NE 
winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 17N and west 
of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and locally rough seas are 
occurring S of 13N, and accompany the tropical wave along 103W. 
Mostly gentle to moderate SE breezes and 5-8 ft seas in mixed 
swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low 
weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift 
southwestward and generally persist across the region through 
early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther
south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may 
form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle
part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support 
some gradual development of this system while it moves generally 
westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this 
time are low.

$$
Stripling