000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301601
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 122.1W at 30/1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm 
of the center. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest. A 
slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during 
the next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, 
and Karina is forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or 
so. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast 
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the 
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

Tropical Storm Lowell is just west of area centered near 13.3N 
140.4W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 
m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 
180 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west near 13 mph
(20 km/h), and a general westward motion is expected during the 
next two to three days. Gradual strengthening is expected during 
the next few days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday
or Monday night.

Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP4.shtml for
more details.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is
located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is
expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. 
This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation 
through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active 
from 10N to 12N between 88W and 96W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 107W from 05N to 17N, moving
quickly westward at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 100W and 
110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to 
11N107W to 10N110W. In addition to the convection near Karina, 
Lowell and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is evident N of 04N E of 81W to the coast of 
Colombia. Part of this convective activity is over the Gulf of 
Panama. Similar convection is also found from 02N to 10N W of 
115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the 
potential of tropical cyclone formation.

While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican 
offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to 
very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are 
reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated
with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the 
islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across 
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally 
moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of 
California except the northern part where fresh to locally strong
winds and moderate seas are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 
123.5W this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon 
evening, 18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 
19.1N 131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity 
as it moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. The fresh SE winds 
impacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion Island,
on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane Karina, will diminish 
through late today as the storm moves farther west. Associated 
rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from east to west
across the islands by tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap 
winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf
of California through tonight into Mon. Looking ahead, an area 
of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located
well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is 
expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the early to middle part of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into
early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds
may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early
next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the
monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, currently located
just west of the forecast area, and an area of disturbed weather
located well offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential 
of tropical cyclone formation.

A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone
Iselle, extends from 27N135W to 20N139W. Fresh to strong NE 
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end 
of the trough axis and mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W . Elsewhere, 
mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the 
open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from 
the two tropical cyclones and the aforementioned trough. Rough 
seas generated by Karina cover the waters 10N to 23N between 
113W and 127W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of
the open waters.

For the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 123.5W 
this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon evening,
18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 19.1N 
131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it 
moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell 
will be W of area near 13.3N 142.0W this afternoon. The associated
winds and seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated
by Karina will continue to propagate across a large part of the 
forecast region early this week.

$$
GR