252 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110313
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.4N 121.9W at 11/0300
UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are 15 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. 
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from
15N to 20N and between 116W and 122W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is present from 12N to 15N and 
between 114W and 119W. A general W motion is expected to continue
through Friday, with a turn to the west-northwest likely on 
Saturday. Some strengthening is forecast, and Norbert could 
become a hurricane this weekend. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W, north of 02N through SE Mexico. 
The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong conveciton is seen from 08N to 11N between 93W 
and 100W.
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 112W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is present from 04N to 15N between 106W and 114W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 13N117W, 
then continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 11N122W to 11N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found north
of 02N and east of 90W. Similar convection is occurring south of
15N and west of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information 
about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California.

A tight pressure gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec between 
high pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the deep
tropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate
seas. Elsewhere, a strong subtropical ridge centered well
northwest of the offshore waters extends southeastward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas are occurring west of the Revillagigedo Islands
as Tropical Storm Norbert continues to pull away. Moderate
northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft are found west of Guadalupe
Island. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the
central and southern Gulf of California and in the nearshore
waters of Baja California. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely
occurring with these storms.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.4N 121.9W at
8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 1000 mb. Norbert will continue to move away from the area over
the next few days. As Norbert continues to move westward, a 
stronger ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja 
California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds by 
Sun into early next week. Winds will also increase across the 
northern Gulf of California Fri and Fri night, then again Sun 
through Mon night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge
and the meandering trough that is in place in that area. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri and then 
again early next week.

Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad
area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this
system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by early next week while it moves generally west-
northwestward to westward over the central and western portions 
of the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tight pressure gradient across the Gulf of Papagayo region
supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough
seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring off Central America and Colombia. Gusty winds and
higher seas are likely occurring with these storms.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to
support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to 
rough seas across the Papagayo region, mainly at night, through 
Mon night. Seas are forecast to build to 8 or 9 ft with the 
strongest winds. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds 
and moderate seas are expected over the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos through early next week. Moderate or lighter 
winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information 
about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California. 

Away from the impacts of Norbert, moderate to locally fresh SE
winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the
Galapagos Islands to 125W. The strong subtropical ridge located
well north of the area dominates the remainder of the tropical
Eastern Pacific supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.4N 121.9W at
8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 1000 mb. Norbert will move to 16.5N 123.7W Fri morning, 16.6N 
126.0W Fri evening, 16.9N 128.0W Sat morning, strengthen to a 
hurricane near 17.4N 129.9W Sat evening, 17.9N 131.7W Sun 
morning, and 18.1N 133.6W Sun evening. Norbert will change little
in intensity as it moves to the 18.3N 137.7W late Mon.

Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next
several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight
pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough
seas in the NE waters late this weekend into early next week.
Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad 
area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this 
system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form by early next week while it moves generally west- 
northwestward to westward over the central and western portions 
of the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 7 days.

$$
Delgado