000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100406
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0320 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 04N88W to 03N97W. The 
ITCZ is analyzed from 03N100W to 01N120W and beyond 02N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N E
of 95W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing S of
the equator between 82W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01N to 14N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb surface low near Punta Eugenia is shifting toward the 
NE tonight. Northwest of the low, a broad surface ridge prevails
and extends to 120W. This is producing a tight pressure gradient
across the southern semicircle of the low and also between the 
low and 130W, resulting in fresh to strong W to NW winds over 
the SW semicircle of the low, extending to approximately 22N 
from the low center. Rough seas to 9 ft in NW swell are within 
these winds. Elsewhere across the northern semicircle of the low,
winds are moderate or weaker. This surface low is also supported
by a deep layered upper level low, which is aiding in producing 
scattered showers across the Bahia de Sebastian Vizcaino and the
northern Gulf of California. In the Gulf of California, the
proximity of the low is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W 
winds and seas to 4 ft. Between Cabo San Lucas to the offshore
waters of Manzanillo, winds are moderate to locally fresh from
the NW, and seas are moderate to 6 ft in NW swell. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low near Punta Eugenia will
continue to move eastward before dissipating over Central Baja 
California and the Gulf of California late tonight through Tue 
morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with 
this low will continue to affect the waters between Cabo San 
Lazaro and Punta Eugenia tonight. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds
across the central and southern portions of the Gulf will 
diminish Tue morning. Behind the exiting low, a ridge will build 
towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, while new NW 
swell enters the waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong
NW winds are expected between Baja Sur and Cabo Corrientes, 
including Las Tres Marias, from late Tue through Wed evening. 
Northerly winds will also freshen inside the Gulf of California 
Wed through Thu morning. Otherwise, a strong gap wind event is 
forecast to begin across Tehuantepec on Thu morning, with winds 
reaching gale-force Thu evening, then diminishing below gale- 
force by late Fri morning. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast 
across all the Mexican offshores Sat and Sat night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7 ft 
continue across the Papagayo region, and extend downwind near 
88W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail 
across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 06N. Light to gentle
winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere N of 01S.
Otherwise, cross-equatorial SW swell continue to spread across 
the Galapagos Islands offshores with seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as 
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also 
pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Mainly 
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to build 
across the regional waters through Tue night, before subsiding 
Wednesday. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb remains well to the NW of the region. 
An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 10N and W 
of 115W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh NE 
winds from 04N to 15N between 125W and 140W. Rough seas of 7 to 8
ft in mixed swell prevail with these winds. A 1007 mb low 
pressure is nearing to coast of central Baja California, with 
fresh to locally strong W to NW winds extending northwestward to 
127W and southward to 22.5N. Elsewhere, winds are of moderate or 
weaker and seas moderate in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the low pressure will move eastward and
dissipate over Baja California and the Gulf of California 
tonight into Tue. New high pressure will develop NW of Baja 
California Tue, and extend a ridge across the E Pacific 
subtropical waters. As a result, new NW swell will move into the 
waters W of the Baja California offshores to about 130W Tue night
and Wed, and subside Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross- 
equatorial swell will continue to propagate N and NE, producing 
rough seas as far N as 20N through Wed, before subsiding from 
east to west Wed night through Fri.

$$
Ramos