000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050300
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.3N 132.0W at 05/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 4.5 m or 13-14 ft. 
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60
nm in the E semicircle, 90 nm in the SW quadrant, and 150 nm in
the NW quadrant. Amanda is moving toward the west-northwest and 
this motion is expected to continue into Fri. A turn towards the
west and then southwest at a slower forecast speed is anticipated
by this weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or so followed by gradual weakening trend this weekend.
Amanda is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by 
early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 94W is no
longer discernible as it is now part of the broad low pressure
flow around the monsoon trough off southern and SW Mexico. Any
nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N86W near the Gulf of
Papagayo to 09N92W to 13.5N104W to 09.5N121W to 11.5N128W, then
resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 10N134W to beyond
07N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted within 300 nm either side of the axis E of
105W, and within 210 nm either side of the axis between 105W and
128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N
between 136W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure center located near
36N133W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California 
waters to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands along 108W. This 
pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja 
Norte waters north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally 
fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur waters to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in 
mixed NW and SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the W-NW of Isla 
Guadalupe in new N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, light
winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 4 to 5 ft 
in SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. Across the remainder 
of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, 
with moderate seas of mainly 6 to 7 ft, primarily in SW swell. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters 
beyond 60 nm of shore between Tehuantepec and Michoacan as
described above.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a
broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through 
early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will 
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Fri night, then 
diminish slightly through Sun, except persisting to fresh near
Cabo San Lucas, pulsing to strong Sun night into early next week.
Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through early next week.
Southerly winds may pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of 
California N of 30N Fri night and Sat night. A trough of low 
pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next several days while it moves slowly northward or north- 
northeastward near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this 
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the Gulf of
America and western Caribbean today. This pattern is yielding light
to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters, with
gentle to moderate S-SW winds from offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in building SW swell 
prevail across the area waters, except 6 to 8 ft from offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms remain
active offshore of much of the area near the monsoon trough as
described above with winds and seas possible in and near any
activity.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat
morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands. A new set of larger SW swell is
expected to arrive by Sat night, propagating NE into early next 
week and building seas to 7 to 10 ft at a minimum. Otherwise, a 
trough of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing 
some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity as described 
above. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development 
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next several days while it moves slowly northward. 
Regardless of development, monsoonal SW to W winds will increase 
south of the monsoon trough over the weekend. Currently, this 
system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W, 
extending southeastward to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds across most of this area. Seas 
over these waters and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 6 to 10 ft 
range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly 
gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with 
moderate winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 120W, locally 
fresh between 90W and 100W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of
120W, and 7 to 9 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 13.5N 
132.9W Fri morning, 13.4N 133.9W Fri evening, 13.0N 134.5W Sat 
morning, 12.6N 134.9W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical 
depression near 12.1N 135.4W Sun morning, and become a remnant 
low and move to 11.7N 136.1W Sun evening. Amanda will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 11.3N 137.5W late Mon. The 
high pressure will drift W and weaken slightly across the area 
waters Fri through the weekend as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks 
toward the NW then W over the western portion of the area, 
resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade wind 
zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat morning, 
before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves through the 
regional waters through early next week, reaching all the way to 
20N. Meanwhile, northerly swell in the N-central waters with seas
of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the next several days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early
next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$
Lewitsky