000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230849
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jun 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific near Panama along
roughly 82W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is along the wave axis in the Gulf of Panama.

A tropical wave is along 96W, south of 16N, moving westward at 
around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
09N to 12N between 93W and 98W.

A tropical wave is along 110W, south of 17N, moving westward at 
5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 
16N between 108W and 111W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 13N110W to
09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 
02N to 08N east of 85W, and from 09N to 12N between 90W and 
105W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 14N
between 111W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging persists west of Baja California. A trough extends
from modest low pressure over the Colorado River Valley through
the central Gulf of California. This pattern is supporting
moderate NW winds off Baja California, with occasionally fresh NW
winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Recent altimeter
satellite passes indicate combined seas off Baja California are
4-6 ft, which includes a component of NW swell. Gentle SE 
breezes and are noted over the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft 
seas. Farther south, an afternoon scatterometer satellite pass
indicated the northern end of a trough along roughly 107W, half
way between Socorro Island and Cabo Corrientes. The satellite
pass confirmed moderate to fresh SE winds between the trough axis
and the coast, and seas in that area are estimated to 5-6 ft. 
Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere
off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, the ongoing pattern will support moderate to 
fresh NW winds off Baja California through tomorrow, and moderate
to locally fresh S to SE winds over the northern Gulf of 
California tomorrow night. Lowering pressure well south of 
southern Mexico will help induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind 
event from tomorrow night through Fri. These N to NE winds should
peak at strong to locally near gale on Wed and Wed night. 
Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be 
quiescent, except for large swell off southern Mexico by the end 
of the week. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong gap winds 
across the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are estimated to be 
5-7 ft. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active off 
Costa Rica and Panama along the monsoon trough, accompanied by 
occasional lightning, gusty winds and locally rough seas. Gentle 
to moderate winds and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, lowering pressure well south of SE Mexico and 
Central America will help induce a Gulf of Papagayo region gap 
wind event beginning tonight, lasting for the next several days. 
These NE winds should peak at strong from tomorrow through Thu. 
Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the 
week. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue 
over the waters west of Colombia and south of Panama through 
tomorrow night. Large S swell should reach the equatorial waters 
Wed through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting
moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas from 10N to 25N, west
of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 4-6
ft seas, except for 6-8 ft seas in SW swell south of 05N and east
of 90W.

For the forecast, 1010 mb low pressure currently near 13N109W 
and named EP94, is forecast to move westward to west- 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, and some additional development is 
possible through midweek before environmental conditions become 
unfavorable late this week. Looking ahead, a low pressure system 
is expected to form late this week several hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of 
this system is possible after that time while it moves west- 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.

$$
Christensen