000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300944
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends along 96W, S of 14N, drifting westward 
around 5 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted
from 03N to 14N between 94W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N108W to 
10N126W to 05N135W. The ITCZ begins near 05N135W and continues 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
from 01N to 10N between 77W and 89W, and from 03N to 13N between
110W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 01N to
09N W of 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just NW of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing 
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across both the Baja
Norte and Sur Peninsula offshore waters. Long-period NW swell
continue to support moderate to rough seas over these waters. 
Inside the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from
the NW and wave heights are 1 to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable 
winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, NE Pacific high pressure will maintain a ridge
across the regional waters through the middle of next week, 
which will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja 
California offshore waters. NW swell moving through the Baja
California offshore waters will merge with SW swell across the 
SW Mexican offshores today through Sun. New N swell will then 
enter the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and subside early 
Tue. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are 
ongoing across most of the local offshore waters S of 10N and
east of the Papagayo region tonight. The strongest thunderstorms
are offshore the central coast of Colombia. This strong 
convection is likely generating strong gusty winds with locally 
rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, except for
locally moderate NE winds in Papagayo. Seas are mainly moderate 
in SW swell, except 7 to 10 ft S of 01.5N, including the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern across the region will
result in light to gentle winds through the period, with 
nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across the 
Papagayo region. Large SW swell will maintain rough seas across 
the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia through Sun
before subsiding. Otherwise, moderate seas will prevail across 
the forecast waters into the middle of next week. Expect 
convection to remain active across the area waters during the 
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure covers the waters north of 19N and west of 110W, 
centered on strong high pressure NE of the Hawaiian Islands. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE
to E winds N of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 118W. 
Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of 
trade wind swell and NW to N swell. Gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough E of 110W, as well as S of the
trough. Seas across the waters S of the trough and ITCZ are 
generally 6 to 8 ft in building S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, little change is expected in winds for the 
next few days. The current NW to N swell will combine with wind 
generated waves produced by the fresh trade winds N of the
monsoon/ITCZ leading to rough seas over the waters W of 120W 
through today. E of 120W, NW to N swell will merge with 
southerly swell over the central waters during the weekend, with 
wave heights of 8 to 9 ft forecast to cover a good portion of the
waters S through SW of the southern tip of Baja California to 
the Equator E of 120W, and westward to near 140W.

Looking ahead, the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC
mentions that a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
early next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the middle part of next week 
while moving westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt 
across the western portion of the East Pacific. 

$$
Ramos