679 
AXPZ20 KNHC 230405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As is normal during EL Nino year, the eastern Pacific remains
active. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two
tropical disturbances with the potential for tropical cyclone
development offshore of southwestern Mexico. These systems are 
Invest areas EP91 and EP92.

Southwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are 
quickly becoming better organized in association with a broad 
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 
Environmental conditions are favorable for development, and a 
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on 
Sunday as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring
gale-force winds to the Jalisco and Baja California Sur outer
offshore waters Sun evening through Mon along with rough seas. 
This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation 
through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days. 

Central East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure 
located well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form before it interacts with, or merges with the 
disturbance to its east (EP92) late this weekend or early next 
week. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone 
formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more 
details on these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 to
20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
09N to 12N between 93W and 99W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N100W to 13N111W to 
07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave
and Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 04N to 09N E of 91W, and from
01N to 07N W of 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas.
Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail across the
northern and central Gulf of California while moderate to fresh 
winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the southern 
part of the Gulf. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined
with a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, continues
to support fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N based on a recent 
scatterometer pass. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. Fresh 
to strong E to SE, associated with the Invest area EP92, are noted
in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly from 15N
to 17N between 105W and 112W.

For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to 
pulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the 
overnight into the early morning hours through the next several 
days, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will 
continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California the remainder of the weekend supporting mainly gentle 
to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will become fresh to 
locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf of 
California tonight and Sun. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
associated with Invest area EP92 are expected to affect the 
Jalisco and Baja California Sur outer offshore waters tonight 
through at least Tue with gale-force winds likely affecting the 
Revillagigedo Islands Sun evening into Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas 
in S swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf
of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading
to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo
region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending
well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore 
of El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of next week. 
South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds 
will persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail
away from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. 

High pressure of 1027 mb located near 34N144W extends a ridge 
southeastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of 
Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E 
winds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds 
and moderate to rough seas are noted S of the monsoon trough 
between 115W and 125W. These winds are just S of Invest EP91. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail
elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring within 210 
nm NE quadrant and 180 nm SE quadrant of Invest EP92. Moderate or 
weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in mixed NE
and S swell.

For the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the
features described above are forecast to bring increasing winds 
and rough seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W 
and 120W the remainder of the weekend. Little change is expected
in the marine conditions elsewhere.

$$
Ramos