000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211537
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough axis extends from near 10N75W to 03.5N79W to 07.5N89W to
04N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N105W to 04.5N116W to 01N126W
and beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 02.5N to 08.5N between 85W and 111W, south of 
01.5S between 96W and 104W, south of 09N between 112W and 129W,
and from 06N to 08.5N between 136W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1018 mb high is centered well offshore of Cabo San Lazaro
and Baja California Sur near 121W this morning, ahead of an
approaching cold front. The associated broad ridge is producing gentle
to moderate NW to N winds across the Baja waters, with seas of 
3-5 ft in S swell, except for locally fresh winds off Cabo San 
Lucas. Elsewhere W of Puerto Angel, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. An elongated middle to upper-
level trough extends from central Mexico W-SW into the tropics
along 120W, and is supporting continued scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 12N to 16.5N between 109W and
the central of Oaxaca. 

Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, that should
still be prevailing north of 13.5N this morning. Seas in these 
waters are estimated at 6-9 ft, with recent altimeter data 
showing seas to 8 ft extending southward to near 09N.

For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf of America will 
support fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through this afternoon. Elsewhere, new NW swell will
move through the waters west of Baja California Norte tonight 
into Wed. Seas are expected to peak to around 8 ft across north
and central portions of the Baja waters with this swell. New high
pressure will begin to build across the Baja waters late Wed,
behind a dissipating cold front expected to die across the area. 
Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are forecast over the 
Pacific waters of Baja California beginning late Wed. Northwest 
winds will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds at night offshore 
southwestern Mexico today through Fri. Elsewhere, mostly light to
gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the end of 
the week and into the upcoming weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Modest high pressure north of the western Caribbean Sea is
forcing fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds and moderate 
seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 
90W. Farther east, overnight satellite scatterometer data
indicated moderate to locally fresh northerly winds occurring in
the Gulf of Panama, that have likely diminished to moderate winds
since sunrise. Seas in these waters are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail. Cross-
equatorial SW swell moving into the area waters is producing seas
of 5 to 8 ft. 

For the forecast, winds will pulse fresh to occasionally strong 
speeds across the Papagayo region this morning and again late 
tonight into Wed morning. Similarly, winds will pulse to locally 
fresh in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the morning hours 
this morning and tonight into Wed morning. Otherwise, rather 
tranquil conditions are expected to continue over the Central 
American and the equatorial waters through the end of the week.
SW swell will peak across the area waters today then subside
tonight through Wed, with the next significant SW swell expected
to reach the area waters Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening cold front continues to slide southeastward across 
the northern waters, extending from 30N121W to 25.5N130W, then
becomes stationary and stretches to 22N140W. No significant 
convection is seen near this boundary. Large NW to N swell 
follows the front, supporting seas of 8-13 ft with the highest 
seas near 29N137W. High pressure well NW of the front extends
weakly into the area and is producing light to gentle anticyclonic
winds behind the front to 30N. Weak high pressure SE of the 
front dominates the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate 
to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in S
swell, north of the ITCZ to 18N and west of 110W. Elsewhere, 
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will move 
east-southeastward, further weakening today and dissipating as it
moves into the Baja Norte waters on Wed. The NW swell behind the
front will spread southeastward over the next few days, 
gradually subsiding in the process. Rough seas will reach the 
western trade waters Wed. Little overall changes are expected 
with winds and seas elsewhere through Thu.

$$
Stripling