000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070927
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 07 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 08N87W to 03N96W to 01N108W. The ITCZ 
extends from 02N121W to 04N133W and to beyond 04N140W. To the S, 
a second tough is noted from 03.4S92.5W to 01S101W to 04N110W to 
03N115W to 02S120W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 
04.5N to 10N between 127W-140W, and within 30 nm of the second 
trough between 93W-95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of 
the area near 38N138W. A broad ridge extends southeastward from 
the high to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and a meandering surface trough over the Gulf
of California extending to NW Mexico is producing gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds offshore the Baja California waters. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 7 to 11
ft in NW swell over the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San 
Lazaro and lower seas of 5 to 7 ft over the waters from Cabo San 
Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW winds are over the central Gulf of 
California as noted in an overnight scatterometer altimeter pass
over that part of the Gulf. The same pass indicated gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere over the Gulf, including the entrance to
the Gulf. Slight to moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
generally light winds and moderate seas in S to SW swell are 
present.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to 
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through 
this morning generally supporting gentle o moderate NW to N 
winds. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form just 
offshore Baja California Norte today, then shift slowly eastward
into early next week while dissipating. The tightening pressure 
gradient between the low center and the ridge to the W will 
promote fresh to locally strong W to NW winds and building seas 
to around 8 ft across the outer forecast waters N of Punta 
Eugenia on Sun. Gentle winds along with moderate seas in SW swell
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast 
period. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region
while gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. An 
overnight altimeter satellite pass captured seas in the general 
range of 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Slightly lower 
seas of 3 to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. The latest 
scatterometer satellite data passes reveal mostly light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Latest altimeter satellite data passes reveal 
seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the 
Papagayo region nightly and into the mornings through Tue as high
pressure remains N of the region. Gentle to locally moderate N 
winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama into next week. Mainly 
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through early next 
week. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell is 
expected to reach the offshore waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands early next week, building seas to around 8 ft, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of 
the region near 38N138W. Associated broad ridging covers the 
waters N of about 15N and W of 112W. The related gradient is 
sustaining fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 25N between 130W 
and 132W as seen in the latest scatterometer satellite data 
passes over that part of the area. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these
winds, with the highest of the seas N of 28N between 121W and 
128W. A couple of overnight altimeter satellite data passes 
indicated such seas. Fresh to strong NE to E trades are confined 
to the western part of the area from 18N to 28N W of 130W. Seas 
with these winds are peaking to near 11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are 
of moderate or weaker speeds. Seas across the remainder of the 
open waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell, except for higher seas 
of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell elsewhere from 07N to 30N W of 130W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
continue to dominate the majority of the western and central 
waters N of 15N and W of 112W through the weekend while it 
weakens some as a cold front approaches from the NW. The cold 
front is expected to stay N of 30N during this time. Trades over
the western half of the area will weaken to mostly fresh speeds 
also during this time, and the NE swell will slowly decay 
allowing for the seas there to subside to 8 ft by early Sun 
evening.

$$
Aguirre