000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241604 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 18.5N 117.1W at 1500 UTC,
moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 
kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 15N to 19.50N between 114W and 118W,
while scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong
convection extends elsewhere from 06.5N to 20.5N between 112.5W
and 127W. Iselle is expected to continue moving northwestward through
tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west- northwest 
on Tuesday. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or 
so, and Iselle could become a short-lived hurricane tonight
through Tue morning. Gradual weakening is then forecast starting
on Tuesday. Swell generated by Iselle has begun to reach the 
west coast of the Baja California Peninsula this morning and will
spread northward and build across the Baja waters and coasts
today through Tue night. This S-SW swell will likely produce
large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Iselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure 
located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed a low
pressure center near 12N121W estimated at 1007 mb, with a broad
fetch of fresh to locally strong S to SW winds within 300 nm S
through E of the low. Associated convection is about the monsoon
trough in that area and described above with Iselle. Environmental
conditions could still support the development of a short-lived 
tropical depression during the next day or so while the system 
moves generally northward, before it becomes absorbed by Tropical
Storm Iselle. This system has a medium chance for tropical 
cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more 
details on these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 97W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02.5N to 16N between 93W and 101.5W.

A tropical wave is along 105W, from 03N to 18N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 
15N between 103W and 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N72W to 06.5N80W to 08N88W 
to 06.5N105W to 09N112W, then resumes SW of Iselle from 14N118W
to low pres near 12N121W 1007 mb to beyond 08N140W. Aside from 
the convection related to the tropical waves, Invest area EP91 
and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate to strong 
convection is found from from 05.5N to 09N E of 90W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N W 
of 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. 

Tropical Storm Iselle is near 18.5N 117.1W at 8 AM PDT, moving 
northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 
65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Iselle has 
weakened the ridge extending into the Baja offshore waters, leading 
to light to gentle winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 22.5N 
extending into the coast. Strong to Tropical Storm force winds and 
very rough seas associated with Iselle are affecting the outer 
offshore waters S of 21.5N and W of 11.5W, and across the 
Revillagigedo Islands. S-SW swell from Iselle has begun to reach the 
coast of Baja Sur, with seas across those near shore waters are 6 
top 7 ft building to 8 to 12 ft across the outer periphery of Iselle 
to the SE. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas have shifted 
westward across the outer offshore waters of Jalisco, while moderate 
to fresh NW winds prevail along the coasts of Michoacan and 
Guerrero. Seas over the SW offshores are moderate in SE swell. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong N gap winds persist across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and downwind to about 13.5N with seas to 8 ft. Scattered 
to numerous thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are 
shifting westward across the near and offshore waters of western 
Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero. 

For the forecast, Iselle will continue moving northwestward and
exit the Mexican offshore waters late this afternoon, reaching
near 19.4N 118.3W late this afternoon as a minimal hurricane,
reach near 20.5N 120.2W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 21.1N 122.1W late Tue afternoon, reach near 21.5N 123.8W 
Wed morning, then continue west-northwestward, reaching near  
22.5N 127.6W Thu morning. Large southerly swell will move through
the Baja offshore waters and reach the coasts today through Wed
morning. Elsewhere Fresh northerly gap winds will continue to 
pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region mainly during 
the overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming 
weekend, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh winds then continue to near 95W. 
Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas 
in S swell. Scattered thunderstorms extends from the coast of SE
Costa Rica westward to 90W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern 
Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean throughout the
upcoming week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to 
strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. 
Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will 
impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala 
through the end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle 
to locally moderate winds will persist through Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about
T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. 

High pressure of 1022 mb located near 32N145W extends a ridge 
southeastward across the northern forecast waters to offshore of
Baja Norte. Under the influence of this system, and outside of 
Iselle, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed from
10N to 26N and W of 120W. Fresh NE to E winds are seen from 10N 
to 15N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in 
mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to develop
well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula 
during the middle part of the week. Gradual development is 
expected thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
later this week or over the weekend while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.

Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well 
offshore of Central America late this week. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this 
system over the weekend while it moves westward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. 
This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation 
through 7 days.

$$
Stripling