000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282114 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026

Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 95W north of 03N to the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated convection is within 180 nm either
side of the wave from 03N to 06N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 121W from 03N to 18N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 11N to 17N between 110W and 120W.
Scattered moderate convection is between the wave and 128W from
10N to 15N. An overnight scatterometer data pass indicated a
swath of moderate to fresh east to southeast winds east of the 
wave axis to near 110W from 10N to 16N. Seas with these winds 
are 6 to 8 ft.

A weakening tropical wave axis is along 139W from 12N to 23N, 
moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection is noted 
at the present time with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH..Corrected

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure in 
northwest Colombia west-southwestward to across the border
between Costa Rica and Panama, and continues to the coast at 
09N84W and to 07N100W to 11N113W to 11N121W and to 07N129W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ to 05N134W and to beyond 05N140W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the 
ITCZ between 129W-137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 05N to 10N between 111W-118W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 126W-129W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf 
of America and relatively lower pressure in southeastern Mexico,
southward to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is 
supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Seas up to 8 ft prevail with these winds. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to fresh southwest winds are over the 
northern portion from 30N to 31N along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.
The pressure gradient is slightly tighter over that portion of
the Gulf due to the presence of the diurnal trough. Seas over 
the rest of the Gulf are also 3 to 4 ft, except at the entrance, 
where higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest 
swell are present. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes 
generally reveal light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the 
Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long- 
period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap 
winds will continue pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
through late Mon morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the 
Mexican offshore waters are expected to remain rather calm 
into the early part of the week. Northwest swell with seas to 8 
ft is expected to move into the far northern waters off Baja 
California Norte beginning early Mon, and linger into Tue 
afternoon.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to near-gale northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Overnight
altimeter satellite data passes indicated seas of 8 to 9 ft 
downstream of these winds, from 09N to 11N between 87W and 94W. 
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in 
long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters as 
detected by multiple altimeter satellite data passes, and 5 to 6 
ft in long-period southwest swell across the remainder of the 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to near-gale gap winds and rough seas 
will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These
conditions may spread as far west as 105W through tonight before
diminishing. Farther south, large southerly swell moving into 
the equatorial waters will continue through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of
about 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over most of the area
north of 10N and west of 119W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft west of 112W 
due to the combination of long-period north to northeast swell 
with trade wind generated waves. To the south, southeast swell 
is inducing seas up to 10 ft south of 02N between 87W and 120W as 
noted in various altimeter satellite data passes from the
overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, winds are 
mostly moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed north and
southwest swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 121W is forecast to 
undergo possible gradual development during the next few days and
a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week while
the system moves generally westward then northwestward. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development
by late week as the system encounters increasing shear and 
cooler waters. Outside of this system, little change in winds 
are expected for the next several days. Large southerly swell 
moving through the far south-central waters is expected to begin 
to decay during the early part of the upcoming week.

$$
Aguirre