000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050324
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0324 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 109W, south of 17N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in
the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 08N83.5W. The ITCZ 
extends from 10N87W to 09.5N107.5W, then resumes from 09N112.5W 
to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
is noted from N of 05N and E of 86.5W, from 05N to 08.5N between
88W and 98W, from 08N to 15N between 99W and 120W, and from 01N 
to 12N between 128W and 139W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico are supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore Baja California. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with 5-7 ft 
seas in merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds and seas 
1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California 
waters will strengthens modestly across the area tonight through
Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja 
California waters. Moderate gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue through tonight, then diminish through 
Mon. Looking ahead, cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the 
waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. 
Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of 
California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Large clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are depicted 
across the waters N of 06N and across Panama, and Costa Rica, and
extend northward into the SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong 
NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extends 
offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with
seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell.

For the forecast, the active thunderstorms across the eastern
waters are expected to generally shift northward tonight into 
Sun and into the SW Caribbean. Fresh NE to E gap winds across 
the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight, and then again
Mon night, Tue night, and Wed night leading to rough seas. Large
cross- equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building 
seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining 
waters farther N. The combination of the southerly swell with 
shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined
seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue 
through Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the
area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and the remnant low of Douglas, now a 1011 mb low near 23N129.5W,
is producing fresh to strong winds around the low, from 22N to 
28N between 128W and 133W. Peak seas are still to 11 ft across 
the NW quadrant of this low. The ridge draping over this low 
pressure area continues to support mostly gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, with 6-8 ft 
seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E 
winds and 6-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is 
reaching as far west as 125W, from 07N to 15N. Gentle breezes are
noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft there in 
SW swell. Active thunderstorms continue about the tropical wave 
along 109W, between 100W and 118W.

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low
moves NW, weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift 
southwestward and generally persist across the region through 
early next week, supporting moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, the 
tropical wave along 109W is producing disorganized shower 
activity. Development of this system appears unlikely as it moves
westward across the central and western portions of the East 
Pacific basin during the next several days. Formation chance
through 7 days is low. 

$$
KRV