000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162058
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Panama and Colombia: A tropical wave will cross
Panama and northern Colombia through Mon, interacting with the
monsoon trough and combining with enhanced divergence aloft to 
induce thunderstorms, particularly over the Darien region of 
Panama and the Choco-Colombia. Heavy rainfall from these 
thunderstorms may lead to flooding. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W from the Galapagos
Islands northward to Guatemala, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
An area of low pressure could form in association with this
tropical wave, several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico around the middle part of next week. Gradual
development of the low is possible thereafter, and a tropical
depression could form toward the end of the week or during the
weekend. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon 
trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, south of 17W, moving
westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave at this time. Broad low pressure may
form in association with this wave well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands during the middle to latter part of next week.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N76W to 08N97W to 
07N112W. The ITCZ extends from 07N112W to 07N116W and from
06N120W to 08N135W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 13N E of 104W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical
wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore
southern Mexico next week. 

Strong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Fresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of
Baja California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5 to 7 ft over the 
remaining open Pacific offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the 
Gulf of California. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the
offshore waters from Guerrero southward. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of 
Mexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to 
fresh pulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force 
at times Mon and Tue nights, while rough seas are also expected.
Fresh northwest winds are forecast off of the Baja California 
peninsula through Tue night, with winds reaching strong speeds 
near Punta Eugenia.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

See Special Features section above for information on heavy
rainfall that may cause flooding over the next few days in
portions of Colombia and Panama.

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the
Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft downwind to 
near 10N90W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the
monsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon 
trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell over 
the remainder of forecast waters. Thunderstorms are present near
the monsoon trough as described above across much of the 
offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible near
any convection.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over 
Central America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east 
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight.
Similar conditions will return starting late Tue. Moderate to 
fresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough into
Mon night. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly 
from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several 
days, largest expected Tue and Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The low pressure associated with the remnants of Hernan is
opening to a surface trough as it moves W to around 140W. Fresh E
winds and rough seas are still noted from about 17N to 20N W of
136W, but associated convection has dissipated this afternoon.
Mainly moderate winds and seas dominate much of the remaining
waters, with easterly winds N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, SE
winds S of the ITCZ, and SW winds S of the monsoon trough. Some
rough seas are noted S of the Equator, where SW long period 
swell is most significant. 

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnants of
Hernan will diminish tonight toward 140W. Rough seas will 
prevail along and south of the Equator through the middle of next
week. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles 
south of the coast of southern Mexico around the middle part of 
the week. Gradual development of this system is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could develop towards the 
end of the week or during the weekend while the system moves 
west-northwestward, while staying south of Mexico. In addition, a
broad area of low pressure could form well to the southeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands during the middle to latter part of the 
week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
towards the end of the week and into the weekend, while the 
system moves generally westward across the western portion of the
east Pacific and into the central Pacific. Regardless of 
development, expect some increasing winds and seas with this 
area.

$$
Konarik