000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101937
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 02N to 18N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 131W from 02N to 17N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 05N95W to 15N127W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
from 05N to 09N between 90W and 100W, from 04N to 18N between 
103W and 115W, and from 05N to 18N between 122W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong gap winds, and rough seas, prevail across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the
northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail over the discussion waters. Moderate seas 
are over the open waters off Mexico with slight seas in the Gulf 
of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of the
week. The pressure gradient between high pressure W of the area 
and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of 
California. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly 
gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of 
Mexico along with moderate seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds and rough seas persist across and
downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and rough 
seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through Tue night. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected 
elsewhere through Sat night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressures
within the monsoon trough is supporting a large swath of fresh to
locally strong winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and 
west of 125W. Rough seas cover these waters. Convergence with the
broad area of fresh to strong winds is generating a large area 
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms is located well to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development, and a 
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves slowly northwestward across the western portion of 
the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase across 
the west-central portion of the forecast region by the middle 
part of the week as this system develops.

$$
AL