000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092043
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W to the north of 02N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 114W, from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the 
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 140W from 01N to 16N, moving 
westward at around 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N110W to 06N122W. 
The ITCZ is from 06N122W to 05N138W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is active within 300 nm S of the monsoon 
trough and E of 100W, and within 150 nm on either side of the 
trough between 100W-128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the waters off Baja 
California. Latest altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were
up to 8 ft in the waters farther offshore, due to NW swell. 
Farther south, strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas are evident elsewhere, except 
for 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, ridging off Baja California is weakening as 
pressure lowers over the Colorado River Valley, allowing winds to
diminish through tonight, with NW swell to 8 ft persisting 
beyond 90 nm offshore. The pattern will also support fresh to 
strong S winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight 
through Fri night. Farther south, pulses of fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early 
next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this 
weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is
a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while
the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of 
tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at 
least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore
of Oaxaca and Chiapas by Sun night, and off Guerrero by Mon 
night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and 
Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to 
be 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N.
Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the 
Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to 
gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 
4-6 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night 
and into the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight
to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. An area of low pressure
is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several
hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical 
depression could form next week while the system moves generally 
west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, 
the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds 
and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala 
by Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting 
moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. 
Fresh NE winds and seas to 7 ft are also noted farther S near 
the tropical wave near 140W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted
elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 04N between 
90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh winds and seas to 7 ft will accompany 
the tropical wave near 140W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt. 
Farther north, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the 
east of 125W into Fri. Farther south, large swell to 7-8 ft will 
persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri. A 
broad area of low pressure may become better organized this 
weekend into early next week over the tropical eastern Pacific 
west of 130W, although chances of tropical cyclone development 
remain low through the next seven days.

$$
ERA