000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020937
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.5N 131.7W at 02/0900 UTC,
moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt.
Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 129W and 134W.
Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through 
Wednesday morning, followed by slow weakening over the next 
several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a major 
hurricane into Thursday. 

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 16.7N 111.0W at 02/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 21N between 
105W and 116W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. 
Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of 
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next 
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California 
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N92W to 10N101W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 01N to 
12N between 118W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.7N 111.0W at 2 AM 
PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 
994 mb. Aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak 
pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California 
sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A slightly 
tighter pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is 
allowing for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 
17.5N 112.1W this afternoon, move to 18.4N 113.6W Thu morning, 
19.1N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 
118.0W Fri afternoon, and 20.8N 119.3W Sat morning. Marie will 
change little in intensity as it moves near 22.1N 121.8W early 
Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh 
to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the 
northern Gulf of California through Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region,
extending outward to 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean
will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate
seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may
pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming
weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and 
Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.7N 111.0W at 2 AM PDT, and is
moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. 
Hurricane Karina is near 18.5N 131.7W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving
west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 
150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Aside from 
the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical 
eastern Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial 
swell is noted W of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 
ft.

For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 
17.5N 112.1W this afternoon, move to 18.4N 113.6W Thu morning, 
19.1N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 
118.0W Fri afternoon, and 20.8N 119.3W Sat morning. Marie will 
change little in intensity as it moves near 22.1N 121.8W early 
Sun. Karina will move to 19.0N 133.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 
135.0W Thu morning, 19.9N 137.0W Thu afternoon, 20.4N 139.0W Fri 
morning, 20.8N 140.8W Fri afternoon, and 21.4N 142.3W Sat 
morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.9N 
144.8W early Sun.  

Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N 
over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding 
late this week.

$$
Ramos