000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is along 89W north of 05N to inland Honduras
and Belize. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the
wave and where the wave crosses the monsoon trough.
A tropical wave has its axis along 97W north of 08N to inland
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous
to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to near 106W
from 10N to 15N.
A tropical wave has its axis along 115W from 08N to 19N, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave
has diminished during the past few hours. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen west of this wave to near
118W from 11N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is east of
the wave to near 108W from 12N to 17N. Scatterometer satellite
data has fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of this
wave to near 110W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds.
A tropical wave is analyzed from 22N132W to 17N135W and to
12N136W. A weak 1012 mb low is along the axis near 20N as
observed on satellite imagery. These features are moving
westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb in
northwest Colombia, west-southwestward through central Panama
and west-northwestward through southern Costa Rica. From there
it reaches the coast at 09N84W and continues to 07N96W, then
northwestward to 12N114W and southwestward to 08N120W and to
06N125W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N132W and
to beyond 06N140W. Numerous to isolated strong convection
is from 02N to 07N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 104W-111W, also
within 180 nm south of the trough between 116W-121W, and
within 120 nm north of the trough between 91W-97W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough and
the ITCZ between 123W-128W, and within 60 nm south of the trough
between 98W-100W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf
of America and lower pressure from southeastern Mexico southward
to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting
fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of
8 to 9 ft have been churned up by these winds. In the Gulf of
California, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over
the northern portion east of 114W due to a tighter gradient
there between the thermal trough and somewhat relatively higher
pressure in western Mexico. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf,
except for 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through
late Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican
offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Large
northwest swell is expected to move into the far northern waters
off Baja California Norte beginning early on Mon, and perhaps
linger into Tue afternoon.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Latest
scatterometer satellite data shows seas of 8 to 9 ft downstream
of these winds, namely from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W.
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in
long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters, as
detected by multiple altimeter satellite data passes, and 5 to
6 ft in southwest swell over the remainder of the offshore waters.
For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure
north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the tropics
will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the
Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may spread
as far west as 105W through Sun night before diminishing.
Farther south, large southerly swell moving into the equatorial
waters will continue through early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak 1012 mb low is centered on the western most tropical wave
near 20N133W. Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail north of
the low to 23N and between 130W and 140W. Seas with these winds
are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the remainder
of the area north of 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds from
10N to 28N west of 126W, and from 11N to 21N between 115W and
126W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are 120 nm north
and northeast of the low due to a tight pressure gradient between
the low and high pressure to the north. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over
these waters, except for higher seas 6 to 9 ft from 15N to 20N
west of 130W due to the combination of long-period north to
northeast swell with trade wind generated waves. Elsewhere, winds
across the open Pacific waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are
6 to 8 ft in mixed north and southwest swell.
For the forecast, the tropical wave near 115W is forecast to
undergo possible gradual development during the next few days
and a tropical depression could form around the middle of next
week while the wave moves generally westward to west-northwestward.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive
for development by the second half of the week as the system
moves over the western portion of the eastern North Pacific.
Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for
the next several days. Large southerly swell moving through far
south-central waters is expected to begin to decay during the
early part of the upcoming week.
$$
Aguirre