000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091605
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better
organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Further development is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next two days, and also through
seven days. A Gale Warning has been issued with this system at
1200 UTC. 

Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 87W north of 03N through Nicaragua and
Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong conveciton is from 03N to 10N 
between 84W and 90W.
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 100W/101W north of 03N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 1007 mb
low pressure (EP96) near 15N114W to 1008 mb low pressure near 
13.5N129W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection 
associated with EP96 and the tropical waves, scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection can be found N of 05N E of 84W to 
the coast of Colombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, is centered near 15.5N114W. 
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas in the N semicircle of
the low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands. Pulsing fresh 
to strong N winds and locally rough seas are occurring in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient 
across the region due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie
to the west of the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly 
light to gentle winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, regardless of development, EP96 will continue 
to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds 
and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The trailing 
tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE 
winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters today through Thu. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. Looking
ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is 
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early 
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Papagayo 
region, with moderate to rough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds
are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker 
winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, moderate
to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing
some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features for further information on Invest EP96 
with a high chance of tropical cyclone development.

The remnant low of Marie is centered 29N129W with an estimated 
pressure of 1004 mb. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to
12 ft N of 27N between 125W and 129W. Seas 8 ft or greater
associated with this system cover the waters N of 22N W of 130W. 
Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern 
Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 95W and 102W, and 
mixing with northerly swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the 
tropical eastern Pacific. 

For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the
potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an 
area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles 
south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible 
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of 
tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and 
medium within the next seven days.

$$
GR