000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N82W to 07N90W to 02N100W to 
02N110W. The ITCZ continues from 02N110W to 05N130W to beyond 
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N
between 82W and 86W, and from 04N to 06N W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located well NW of the area near
37N137W extends a ridge southeastward toward Baja California Sur
and the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and a meandering surface trough over the Gulf of
California is producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds offshore
the Baja California waters per recent satellite derived wind
data. Seas are 4 to 7 ft within these winds, except 7 to 11 ft 
in NW swell across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. 
Mainly light and variable winds with slight seas prevail across 
the Gulf of California. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore 
waters, light winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, 
are noted. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure NW of the forecast region 
will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds across 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Fri. Weak
low pressure is expected to form just offshore Baja California 
Norte Fri through Sat, then shift slowly eastward into early next
week. This will relax the pressure gradient over the offshore 
waters of Baja California, leading to improving marine conditions
through the weekend. Gentle to locally moderate winds and
moderate seas, in SW swell, are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through the forecast period.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh Ne to E
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to beyond 90W. 
Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. In the Gulf of Panama, 
light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. 
Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with slight to moderate seas
in SW swell. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in 
the Papagayo region through the weekend and into early next week
as high pressure remains N of the region. Gentle to locally moderate
N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama. Mainly light to gentle
winds will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Looking ahead,
significant cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to reach the 
offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands early
next week, building seas to around 8 ft. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb centered NW of the region near 
37N137W extends a ridge across most of the forecast waters N of 
15N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, recent
scatterometer data show fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 26N 
between 118W and 130W, and N of 20N W of 130W. Seas of 8 to 12 
ft are within these winds, with the highest seas N of 28N 
between 120W and 123. An area of fresh to strong trade winds is
also noted from 07N to 15N W of 135W with seas to 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas through the 
remainder of the open waters are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will continue to dominate
the waters N of 15N and 120W through Fri night, supporting fresh
to strong N to NE winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, a low 
pressure is forecast to develop and linger near Baja California 
Norte Fri through Sat, then drift slowly eastward into early next
week. During this same period, the high pressure will slowly move
westward and weaken. As a result, marine conditions are expected
to improve as the pressure gradient relaxes across the forecast
waters Sat through Mon.

$$
GR