000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080220
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 82W to the north of 06N, 
moving westward around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described 
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 131W from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in 
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 10N85W to 06N90W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 08N105W to 08N130W, and from
08N134W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
05N to 15N between 95W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong NW winds and 6-7 ft seas are observed off
Baja California Norte, between high pressure west of the area and
lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Farther south, fresh to
strong N to NE gap winds are active across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, with 5-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6
ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft seas across the Gulf
of California. Thunderstorms are active inland from Jalisco to
Sonora, and gusty winds may be occurring near the coast.

For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California 
through mid week, with lower pressure inland over northwest 
Mexico. This pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong NW
winds off Baja California Norte through Wed night, with rough 
seas in NW swell near Guadalupe Island. These winds will diminish
Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower 
Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S 
winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week. Looking ahead, lowering 
pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to
strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore southern 
Mexico by the weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A wide plume of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persist across
the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 95W, where seas 
are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the 
N of 08N. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama 
downwind to near 07N. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore 
waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-8 ft in SW 
swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the 
waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu along with rough seas,
then moderate to fresh winds thereafter. Cross equatorial SW
swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands through Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The
combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas
associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a
peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America through
Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will
persist elsewhere, with locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of
Panama tonight. Looking ahead, lowering pressure across the
tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and
occasionally rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by
the end weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 138W from 23N to 29N.
Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 16N, 
supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW
swell. Fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft are also noted farther S 
ahead of the tropical wave near 129W, specifically from 10N to 
20N between 125W and 135W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are ongoing near a surface trough between 136W and 140W along 
with fresh to strong winds within 90 nm of the trough. Rough seas
are likely accompanying the strong winds. Gentle to moderate 
breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is 
reaching 05N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will follow the
trough near 140W until it moves W of the discussion waters
overnight. Strong winds and rough seas will also accompany the 
tropical wave near 129W at it moves westward at 15 to 20 kt,
reaching 135W by Wed night, and past 140W by late Fri. Farther 
N, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the E of 125W 
through Fri. Farther S, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south
of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri.

$$
Christensen