000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101534
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08.55N84W to 01N104W. The ITCZ is 
analyzed from 01.5S110W to beyond 00N140W. Scattered to numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 02N between 
84.5W and 94.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
03.5N to 05.5N between 95W and 105W and from 01N to 11.5N between
120W and 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad low pressure of 1012 mb straddles the central Baja
CaliforniaPeninsula and central Gulf of California, and 
continues to shift very slowly eastward. Associated showers and 
thunderstorms have shifted well inland across northwestern 
Mexico. Broad cyclonic wind flow dominates the area N of 20N and 
E of 120W. Northwest of the area, a broad surface ridge prevails 
and extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and the low 
continues to produce fresh to locally strong NW winds across the
Baja near and offshore waters, where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NW 
swell. In the Gulf of California, the proximity of the low is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh W winds and seas to 4 ft 
across the southern half of the Gulf. Between Cabo San Lucas and 
the offshore waters of Manzanillo, NW to N winds are moderate to 
fresh, except strong along the coast near Cabo Corrientes. Seas 
are moderate to 6 ft in NW swell across these waters except to 8 
ft near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh NW 
winds spilling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the aforementioned low will continue to move 
eastward before dissipating over the Central Gulf of California 
today. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas associated with 
this low will continue to affect the waters between Cabo San 
Lucas and Punta Eugenia this morning. Moderate to fresh SW to W 
winds across the central and southern portions of the Gulf will 
diminish later this morning. Behind the exiting low, a ridge will
build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, while new
NW swell enters the waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to 
strong NW winds are expected between Baja California Sur and Cabo
Corrientes, including Las Tres Marias, from late today through 
Wed evening. Northerly winds will also freshen inside the Gulf of
California Wed through Thu morning. Otherwise, a strong gap wind
event is forecast to begin across Tehuantepec on Thu morning, 
with winds reaching gale-force Thu evening, then diminishing 
below gale-force by late Fri morning. Moderate or weaker winds 
are forecast across all the Mexican offshores Sat and Sat night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7 ft 
continue across the Papagayo region, and extend downwind near 
91W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas 
prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 03.5N. Light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere N of 
the equator. Otherwise, cross-equatorial S-SW swell continues to
spread across regional waters, producing seas of 5 to 9 ft, and 
to 10 ft south of the Galapagos.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as 
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also 
pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Mainly 
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to build 
across the regional waters through tonight, before subsiding 
Wednesday. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb remains well NW of the region along 135W.
An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 14N and W
of 107W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh NE 
winds from 04N to 20N between 110W and 140W. Rough seas of 7 to 9
ft in mixed swell prevail with these winds. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast, 1012 mb low pressure over central Baja
California and the central Gulf of California will move eastward
and dissipate today. New high pressure will develop NW of Baja 
California later today, and extend a ridge across the E Pacific 
subtropical waters. New NW swell will move into the waters W of 
the Baja California offshores to about 130W tonight and Wed, and 
subside Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross- equatorial swell 
will continue to propagate N and NE, producing rough seas as far 
N as 20N through Wed, before subsiding from east to west Wed 
night through Fri.

$$
Stripling