000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240836
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Polo is centered near 16.5N 103.5W at 24/0900 UTC,
moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
923 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170
kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft, or 12.5 m. Numerous 
strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 120
nm of the center, except 150 nm in the NE quadrant. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 12N
to 19N between 98W and 107W. Polo is moving toward the 
northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later 
today and Fri, followed by a northwestward motion on Sat. On the 
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to remain offshore 
of southwestern Mexico today before moving farther out to sea. 
Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. Some near-term strengthening is possible, and Polo is
expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few 
days. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal
portions of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. 
Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central 
Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on Fri and into the 
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, 
rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 16.1N 126.0W at 24/0900 UTC,
moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with
gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft, or 8.5 m. Numerous 
strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 300
nm in the NE and SW quadrants, and 120 nm in the SE and NW 
quadrants. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 98W and 107W. Odalys is moving
toward the east-northeast. An east-northeastward motion at a 
slightly slower speed is expected for the next day or so, 
followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast and then north 
later this week. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, followed by a weakening trend late this week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low
pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into
Central America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder
of the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into
the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as 
well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise
concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. 
Please refer to local weather services as well as the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific 
south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for 
tropical development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 10N74W to across Panama and Costa Rica to
near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to near the Gulf of
Tehuantepec at 15N96W. The monsoon trough resumes SSW of Odalys
from 12N127W to 11N132W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection 
described in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 83W, 
from 02N to 11N between 88W and 91W, from 13N to 16N between 92W 
and 99W, and within 210 nm SW of the monsoon trough W of 134W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 
97W and 101W, and within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 
125W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on 
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the 
offshore waters.

Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of
the waters away from Polo. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection continues in association with a surface trough in a
central and northern Gulf of California, with similar convection
noted on infrared satellite imagery due to the proximity of the
monsoon trough and the remnants of a tropical wave.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.9N 104.9W
this afternoon, 17.2N 106.8W Fri morning, 17.3N 108.7W near the
Revillagigedo Islands Fri afternoon, 17.7N 110.5W Sat morning, 
18.7N 111.9W Sat afternoon, and 20.1N 112.9W Sun morning as it
moves closer to the Baja California Peninsula. Polo will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 23.5N 113.5W early Mon. 
Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will move to 16.6N 125.0W this 
afternoon, 17.5N 123.9W Fri morning, 18.2N 123.3W Fri afternoon, 
weaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 123.1W Sat morning, 20.2N 
123.0W Sat afternoon, and 21.4N 122.8W Sun morning. Odalys will 
become post-tropical as it moves to 22.4N 122.3W to just beyond 
the offshore waters of Baja California early Mon. Also, fresh to 
locally strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this morning through early Sat. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to 
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental 
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the 
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a 
high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next
seven days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters N of 09N, with
gentle to moderate S-SW winds S of 09N. Locally rough seas have
propagated into the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to
Major Hurricane Polo near SW Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas 
prevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, 
and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Isolated to widely 
scattered moderate convection is impacting portions of the 
offshore waters as described with the monsoon trough above.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail 
across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly 
moderate seas, except locally rough offshore western Guatemala
early today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for information on 
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the 
offshore waters.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.9N 104.9W
this afternoon, 17.2N 106.8W Fri morning, 17.3N 108.7W near the
Revillagigedo Islands Fri afternoon, 17.7N 110.5W Sat morning, 
18.7N 111.9W Sat afternoon, and 20.1N 112.9W Sun morning as it
moves closer to the Baja California Peninsula. Polo will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 23.5N 113.5W early Mon. 
Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will move to 16.6N 125.0W this 
afternoon, 17.5N 123.9W Fri morning, 18.2N 123.3W Fri afternoon, 
weaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 123.1W Sat morning, 20.2N 
123.0W Sat afternoon, and 21.4N 122.8W Sun morning. Odalys will 
become post-tropical as it moves to 22.4N 122.3W to just beyond 
the offshore waters of Baja California early Mon. Very large 
seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week 
into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together 
resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, 
high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much 
maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas into the 
weekend, freshening over the NW and N-central waters during the 
weekend and into early next week as high pressure builds from the
NW and results in a tight pressure gradient with the two 
tropical systems. Winds may also freshen just S of the monsoon 
trough at the same time to the W of 110W allowing for seas to 
build to rough there. Northerly swells will push S of 30N this 
weekend mixing with the already confused seas of Polo and Odalys 
N of 10N and E of 130W.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a 
couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation
of this system through the next seven days.

$$
Lewitsky