000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160843
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 15.6N 116.5W at 16/0900
UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 5.5 m, while a 0330
UTC altimeter pass helped determine the radii of 4 m seas. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm in
the east semicircle and 30 nm in the west semicircle, with
numerous moderate isolated strong elsewhere from 11N to 19N
between 110W and 120W, and also from 05N to 11N between 111W and
124W. Elida is moving toward the west, and a turn toward the 
west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwestward 
motion beginning Fri and continuing through the weekend. 
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of 
days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane tonight or 
early Fri before reaching its peak intensity on Fri. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory 
at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98.5W, north of 03N to across southern 
Mexico over portions of western Oaxaca to eastern Guerrero, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 89W and 102W,
and from 14N to 17N between 98W and 102W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10N86.5W to 07N97W to
13.5N112W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 13N119W to low
pressure, 1008 mb, near 09N138W to 09N140W. Other than the 
convection mentioned with Elida and the tropical wave above, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 05N between 78W and 88W, from 05N to 10N between 103W and
107W, and from 05.5N to 13.5N between 125.5W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 539 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the periphery
of Tropical Storm Elida are continuing to impact the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas near and south-southwest of the 
islands are 8 to 14 ft. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly 
winds are across the Tehuantepec region per a recent ASCAT-C
scatterometer pass, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A broad ridge 
prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja California, while a NW to SE
surface trough is analyzed across the Baja California Peninsula.
This pattern is supporting mainly gentle NW to N winds and 3 to 
7 ft seas across the Baja offshore waters away from Elida. In the
Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft prevail. An upper-level low spinning over Baja 
California Sur is generating some cloudiness and a few showers 
and thunderstorms across parts of the Baja California Peninsula
and Gulf of California waters. Additional convection is present 
off southern Mexico near a tropical wave as described above.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will weaken to a tropical 
storm over 24.3N 127.1W early Mon. Otherwise, a broad ridge 
will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California through the end of the week, allowing for gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in 
mixed swell, higher well offshore due to Elida. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
expected to pulse out of the SW to W through gaps across 
portions of the Gulf through at least Fri, locally strong in the 
northern Gulf Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through at least the upcoming 
weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours,
with locally rough seas at times.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later
this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it 
moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of 
Mexico. Increasing winds and building seas will be possible 
again in and around the Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend
into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 89W, with moderate to fresh easterly winds 
elsewhere from 09N to 12N, and near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas 
are 5 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama per a recent OSCAT
scatterometer pass. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, 
primarily in SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore 
waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos
Islands and nearshore western Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will prevail across the Papagayo region, peaking at 
night through Sun night, possibly increasing to near gale-force 
early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the
Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Panama into early morning today, and again 
tonight. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell 
are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the 
Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight 
seas are forecast. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 539 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California.

A ridge dominates the waters north of 09N/10N and the monsoon
trough, and to the west of 120W, or ahead of Tropical Storm 
Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports
moderate to fresh N to NE winds, north of 12N, and 4 to 7 ft 
seas in mixed swells. A growing band of fresh to strong SW winds 
and 7 to 9 ft seas are found south of the monsoon trough and 
wrapping into the circulation of Elida, from roughly 05N to 10N 
between 112W and 133W. Moderate to fresh winds are found south 
of 04N between 90W and 115W, along with 6 to 7 ft seas. Mainly 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will weaken to a tropical 
storm over 24.3N 127.1W early Mon. Otherwise, a broad ridge 
will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California through the end of the week, allowing for gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in 
mixed swell, higher well offshore due to Elida. Looking ahead, 
an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week 
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves 
generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. Increasing 
winds and building seas will be possible again in and around the 
Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend into early next week.
Seas may build to rough in new southerly swell mixed with distant
swells from Elida south of the Equator and west of 100W by the
start of the upcoming weekend, spreading north-northwestard into
early next week. Otherwise, little change is forecast elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky