000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270236
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W 
reaching southward to near 05N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 08N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the 
vicinity of the wave axis and S of 12N.

A tropical wave has its axis near 112W from 08N to 17N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. A mid-level cyclonic circulation is noted 
in satellite animation in the vicinity of the wave axis. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 
18N between 105W-118W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 128W from 11N to 21N. A weak 
1011 mb low is along the axis near 20N as noted in satellite 
imagery. These features are moving westward at about 15 kt. 
Scattered showers are within 60 nm north of the low.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb in 
northwest Colombia to across northern Panama and to 10N86W to 
08N117W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 07N140W. 
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either 
side of the ITCZ and W of 135W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf 
of America and lower pressure from southeastern Mexico southward
to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting 
fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas to 8 
ft are with these winds. In the Gulf of California, fresh 
southwest winds were detected by a recent ASCAT pass across the 
central portion of the Gulf from the gradient associated to the 
diurnal thermal trough. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf, except 
for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore 
waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period south to 
southwest swell. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through 
Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican 
offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Large 
northwest swell is expected to may move into the far northern 
waters off Baja California Norte beginning Sun night and linger 
into Tue.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Recent 
altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 6 to 8 ft downstream 
of these winds from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. Moderate or 
weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period 
southerly swell over the equatorial waters and 5 to 6 ft in SW 
swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure
north of the area and lower pressures in the tropics will 
support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf
of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may possibly 
reach as far west as 96W through Sun night. Farther south, large 
southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue 
through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak 1011 mb low is centered near 20N128W as mentioned above 
under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong northeast winds
prevail north of the low to 22N and between 125W and 129W. Seas 
with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging 
dominates the remainder of the area north of 15N. The moderate 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to 
fresh trade winds from 10N to 27N west of 127W, and from 12N to 
17N between 113W and 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these areas, 
except for higher seas 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 20N west of 131W due
to long-period north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, winds across
the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in 
mixed north and southwest swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 112W is forecast to 
undergo possible gradual development during the next several days
as it moves generally west-northwestward, and a tropical 
depression could form during the early to middle part of next 
week. By late next week, the system is expected to reach a much 
less favorable environment for development. Outside of this 
system, little change in winds are expected for the next several 
days. Large southerly swell moving through far south-central 
waters, with seas of 8 to 9 ft may reach to near 03N between 100W
and 127W by Sun night and into Mon.

$$
ERA