000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121457
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1455 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz,
Mexico in the Gulf of America. A strong high pressure system
building in the wake of the front is supporting fresh to strong
northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will
increase to gale-force this afternoon. Rough seas are expected 
to develop to 10 ft during the morning, and become very rough to 
20 ft tonight. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds
will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat 
morning.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 03N80W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 06N88W to 01N110W and to beyond 02N140W. A few
showers are noted near the ITCZ.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for further information on a
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a subtropical ridge centered
well west of California supports fresh to occasionally strong NW
winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf of 
California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft
are found in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the
highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe Islands. In the
remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of
America in the wake of a cold front, allowing for fresh to strong
winds this morning to increase to gale speeds in the afternoon. 
Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft this morning, and 
become very rough to 20 ft tonight. Gales will prevail through 
Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal 
coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will continue to build 
towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes through today, 
while new NW swell spreads across the waters N of Punta Eugenia. 
Northwest fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California will
diminish to moderate speeds this evening as the ridge weakens 
modestly across the area.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean supports
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the
Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of
Panama and extend downstream to 04N. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere with moderate seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high 
pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse 
to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to 
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 
New cross-equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the 
Galapagos offshore waters Fri night into Sat, and subside Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
eastern Pacific tropical waters and lower pressures in the deep
tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and
rough seas north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 110W. Meanwhile,
moderate anticyclonic winds and rough seas are noted north of 23N
and west of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
present elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will remain in place over
the E Pacific subtropical waters, thus supporting mainly moderate
to fresh trades over the tropical waters W of 130W through Sat. 
NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is forecast to 
subside tonight. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial SW swell is
expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters Fri late 
afternoon and subside S of 11N by Sun evening. 

$$
Delgado