000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102343 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 10 2026

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest 
Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 06N82W to 07N90W to 09N100W 
to 08N110W to 07N118W to low pressure near 08N125W 1011 mb to
07N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to low pressure near
07N135W 1011 mb and to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 03N to 07N between 78W-83W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 08N 
between 83W-88W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
south of the trough between 88W-90W, within 120 nm south of the 
trough between 91W-94W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 122W-126W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds continue across the 
waters of Baja California per latest scatterometer satellite data 
due to the pressure gradient between a broad ridge west of the area 
and relatively lower pressure in the Baja California region. Seas 
with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell, except to 
8 ft between 30N and Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle northerly winds 
prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the 
Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas 
are 5 to 6 ft primarily in long-period southwest swell. Winds inside 
the Gulf of California are generally at gentle speeds, at times 
south to southwest in direction in the central and southern portions 
and mostly variable in direction in the northern portion. Seas are 1 
to 2 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in 
long-period southwest swell in the southern portion. Gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere to the southeast and south of the Gulf as seen in 
the most recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are of 
moderate state primarily from a southwest swell component, mixing 
with a northwest swell component west of about 109.5W. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the outer 
waters beyond 90 nm of the coast from Oaxaca to Guerrero.
 
For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support 
moderate to fresh northwest to north winds off Baja California 
Norte this evening. Mostly moderate seas in northwest swell will 
continue over these waters through the period, except for rough 
seas to 8 ft over the waters north through northwest of Isla 
Guadalupe tonight. The high pressure will weaken and drift 
northward Mon through the middle part of the week, allowing for 
generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. A new 
area of high pressure will build southeastward across the region 
Wed night through Thu night, leading to mostly fresh northwest to
north winds across the Baja waters. Looking ahead, fresh to 
strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then 
become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Wed night as 
the gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico between modest 
ridging that builds over the western Gulf of America in the wake 
of cold front and weak low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The most recent scatterometer satellite data indicates mostly light 
to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and 
southward to Ecuador, with fresh to strong east gap winds across the 
Papagayo region extending to near 88W as revealed in the 
scatterometer data. Mostly moderate north winds are downwind from 
the Gulf of Panama from 05N to 07N between 79W and 80W, and light to 
gentle variable winds are north of 04N between the coast of Colombia 
and 79W. Combined seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft, except for 
higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in long-period southwest swell present 
south 02S and east of about 100W to near the coast of Peru as noted 
in recent altimeter satellite data passes. Mostly moderate north 
winds are downwind from the Gulf of Panama from 05N to 07N between 
79W and 80W, and light to gentle variable winds are north of 04N 
between the coast of Colombia and 79W. Combined seas over these 
waters are 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in long-
period southwest swell present south 02S and east of about 100W to 
near the coast of Peru as noted in recent altimeter satellite data 
passes.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the 
monsoon trough from the southeast Gulf of Panama westward across
the outer waters to near 90W. This activity has changed little
during the day.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly gap winds will pulse 
to mostly fresh to strong speeds at night across the Papagayo 
region through Thu, then at fresh speeds Fri. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are 
expected through the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered north of the area near 31N133W. 
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining 
moderate to fresh trades from 09N to 24N west of 126W, and from 10N 
to 17N between 117W and 126W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed northwest 
and east swell are over this area south of 21N and west of about 
122W. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft 
are elsewhere north of about 11N per latest altimeter satellite data 
passes, and a couple of SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy reports from the 
northwest portion of the area. Convection over this area is 
associated to the monsoon trough and ITCZ as described above under 
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region
tonight, then begin to weaken and drift northward Mon through 
Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support 
moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N 
and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8
ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. 
Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will begin to impact a 
portion of the far south-central waters and the waters just south
of the Galapagos Islands beginning tonight, spreading eastward 
in coverage into Mon before decaying later on Mon and into Tue.

$$
Aguirre