000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jun 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low (Invest-90E): The 1006 mb low pressure 
located well SW of the southern tip of Baja California near 
10N127W is beginning to show some signs of organization, with 
numerous strong convection from 07N to 10N between 125W and 131W,
and fresh cyclonic winds surrounding the low's center, away from
the thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further organization, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form during the next day or two while the low moves westward or 
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt across the western portion of 
the East Pacific. There is a high chance of tropical formation 
within the next 48 hours. 

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave axis is along 85W N of 
03N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted within 90 nm of either side of the axis, N of 05N. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 110W, from 04N to 16N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 12N between 103W and 113W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N80W to 11N105W to 1006 mb
low pressure near 10N127W to 08N134W to 05N140W. Numerous
moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the trough between 131W
and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N
between 116W and 122W and within 180 nm N of the trough between
134W and 138W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1025 mb high center 
N of the area near 34N134W stretches southeastward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining
mainly moderate NW to N winds over the Baja California offshore
waters, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, 
light to gentle winds remain. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are in the Gulf, 
with the exception of higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell 
near the Gulf entrance. For the remainder of the offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas 
primarily in long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW swell move through these waters offshore
Baja California Norte from Thu through early on Sat, decaying 
afterward. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is likely to 
form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this 
week or over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for some development of this system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves 
westward to northwestward. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly light and variable winds are over the Central American 
offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with 
moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The
exception is fresh gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle 
south winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- period SW 
swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the 
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern will provide for 
generally light to gentle winds through the period, except for a 
pulse of moderate to fresh gap winds in the Papagayo region 
tonight and Wed night. Long period SW swell is forecast to enter 
the southern Galapagos adjacent waters tonight, then begin to 
subside Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
likely to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico 
late this week or over the weekend. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter, 
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it 
moves westward to northwestward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on low
pressure in the western portion of basin that is expected to 
become a tropical depression during the next couple of days.

High pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough generally allowing for moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 25N, then
gentle NE winds farther N. Seas over these waters are in the 7 
to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. 
Gentle to locally moderate winds are S of the monsoon trough. 
Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft primarily in N 
swell, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly
swell is causing rough seas W of 100W. 

The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of 
the week as the Special Features low pressure system tracks to the 
NW over the western portion of the area resulting in a weakening of 
the trade winds E of about 130W, becoming light and variable from 
04N to 12N between 120W and 130W. Seas over these waters are 
forecast to subside to around 5 to 7 ft by early Thu. Mostly fresh 
trade winds are expected elsewhere outside the Special Features low, 
namely W of 125W and N of about 08N along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in 
merging NE and SW long-period swell Wed through Fri. 

$$
Konarik