000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170712 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 17 2026

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient 
between strong high pressure west of Baja California and 
relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf 
of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest 
winds in the northern and central Gulf of California tonight 
through early on Sun before diminishing to mostly fresh speeds 
through Sun afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near 
gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf Sun night 
into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with
these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure
weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to 
slacken.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more
detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward 
to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to
06.5N93W and to 07N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to
07N114W to 07N124W to 06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 
79W-84W, and from 01N to 05N between 81W-88W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 128.5W, and within 
60 nm north of the the ITCZ between 128W-135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for upcoming 
northern Gulf of California gale conditions.

Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of 
California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high 
pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in 
Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to 
strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja 
California Norte through Sun night before diminishing, and moderate 
to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through 
Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 17 ft over the 
offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to 
around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia Sun through Mon as a set of long-
period northwest to north moves through those waters. Moderate to 
fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of 
California and light to gentle variable winds are over the southern 
portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft 
over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of 
about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the 
rest of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of 
Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside 
going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds
and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change 
little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak
pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are 
expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue 
and Tue night along with moderate seas.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo 
region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather 
weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to
west winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle
northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap 
winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night through the 
period. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell 
are expected through the middle part of the upcoming week. 
Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds 
and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the 
early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of 
Colombia.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high
located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 20N115W.
This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the 
ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the 
northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large 
northwest swell. Latest scatterometer data passes reveal fresh 
trades from 08N to 26N west of about 133W and from 08N to 23N 
between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as 
noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and 
northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest 
altimeter satellite data passes.

For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little 
through Sun night maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the 
waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to 
strong northwest to north winds over the northeast part until Mon 
morning. The large northwest swell over the northeast part of the 
area will decay going into the middle part of the week allowing for 
seas to lower below 8 ft.

$$
Aguirre