894 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure,
Invest EP96, centered near 16N111W or several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection extends from 12N to 21N
between 106W and 115W. Gradual development of this system is 
likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this 
week while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 
the next two days and high chance within the next seven days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 83W north of 04N through western 
Panama and S Costa Rica. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15
kt. No significan convecton at this time. 
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 02N. It is 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extends from 01N to 16N between 89W and 107W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 10N102W to Invest
EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N111W to 10N130W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 17N
between 122W and 132W, and from 02N to 10N W of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N111W has 
high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven 
days. Fresh to strong winds in the NE quadrant of the low are
affecting the outer Jalisco offshores and the Revillagigedo
Islands. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds are
pulsing. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across
the SW Mexican offshores associated with Invest EP96 and a
trailing tropical wave. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient 
across the region due to the presence of remnant low of Marie to 
the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and light to gentle winds 
along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, regardless of development, EP96 will continue 
to affect the outer Jalisco offshores as well as the 
Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to 
rough seas through Wed evening. A trailing tropical wave is 
forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW 
Mexican offshores tonight through Thu evening. Otherwise, fresh 
to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell.
Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate
seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to 
moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Meanwhile, moderate to 
fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then 
diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are 
expected elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with
high potential of development.

The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an 
estimated pressure of 1002 mb. Strong to near-gale force winds 
and seas to 14 ft are ongoing within 90 nm in the northern 
semicircle of the low pressure, with surrounding swell of 8 ft or
greater extending over the waters north of 20N and west of 120W.
Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern 
Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 110W and 120W and 
mixing with northerly swell. Winds and combined seas will 
diminish through mid week as the low dissipates. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft
are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This 
swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the 
primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from 
this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft.

$$
Ramos