000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211530
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 97.5W from offshore Oaxaca southward is
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 15N between 93W and 100W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 10N84W to 08.5N114W
to 05.5N123W to 06N126W. The ITCZ extends from 06N126W to 08N133W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including the offshore waters 
of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
is noted from 02N to 10N E of 97W and from 02.5N to 14N between 
97W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to
11N W of 115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to
mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds
are impacting waters near and offshore of Cabo San Lucas as 
modest ridging builds in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate, 4
to 6 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW
of Isla Guadalupe, and slight in the Gulf of California.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving westward
across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, behind a
tropical wave.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through
late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds.
By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward
the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore
Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas continue
across the Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the 
Gulf of Panama extending southward to near 06N. Elsewhere, active
convection continues across the waters E of 90W, that is 
described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the 
Monsoon Trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
dominate, with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to
6 ft seas to the south.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the
Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough that had been W of Baja California has
dissipated, and associated shower activity has also dissipated. 
Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough 
around 10N115.5W. Convection near this low is described in the 
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge extends 
southeastward from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W across 30N140W
then southward to the ITCZ. This feature is maintaining moderate
to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and 
west of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 
ft in mixed NW and S swell continue north of the ITCZ east of 
125W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and 
seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually 
weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. 
This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to 
between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this
weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the
weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat.

$$
Stripling