000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281008
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 23.6N 113.8W, or about 
110 nm southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 28/0900 UTC, 
moving north-northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with 
gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 38 ft (11.5 ). Satellite 
imagery shows that Polo's overall structure hasn't changed much 
during the several hours. Numerous moderate to strong convection
is within 60 nm of the center. Polo is expected to make a 
turn toward the northeast his afternoon, followed by a slight 
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of 
Polo is expected to move inland along the coast of Baja 
California Sur late this afternoon or early this evening, then 
move inland in southern Sonora late Mon night or early on Tue.
Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane strength 
when it reaches Baja California Sur late today, and it is 
expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland 
Mexico late tonight or early Tue. Polo is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja 
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum 
totals of 8 inches are expected across southern and central 
portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening 
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total 
Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 13.4N 100.4W, or about 
210 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 28/0900 UTC, moving west- 
northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Peak seas are to 16 ft (5 m). satellite imagery shows that 
Rachel's overall cloud pattern appears more improved than 6 
hours ago. Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm of the 
center in the SW quadrant, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 30 nm in
the N semicircle. Rachel is forecast to acquire a faster west- 
northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well 
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm
conditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the 
tropical storm watch area by Tue. Strengthening is expected 
during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a 
hurricane on Tue. Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting
portions of southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of 
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.

A broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east- 
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing numerous moderate
to strong convection from 12N to 15N between 135W and 140W. as it
continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for further development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. 
The system should move generally northeastward and remain well 
east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of 
tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance 
over the next week. This system has a high chance of tropical 
formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the 
next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern 
Nicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses.
It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N117W and continues to 
14N128W to Invest EP91 near 12N137W and to beyond 13N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
180 nm south of the trough between 128W-132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.

These systems will impact a good majority of the forecast 
waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds 
are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle 
winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over 
the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with 
slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. 

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near
near 24.8N 113.2W this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late 
tonight, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over 
northwest Mexico near 29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate 
late Tue night. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 
AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 1001 mb. Rachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this 
afternoon, to near 14.9N 103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 
105.3W Tue afternoon and strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 
106.6W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85
kt. Rachel is forecast to reach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon,
to near 19.0N 108.5W late Wed night and move to near 19.6N 
109.2W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 
105 kt. Hazardous marine conditions will be impacting the 
majority of the Mexican offshore waters through the forecast 
period. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of 
the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient 
is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate
seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the 
Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain 
moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with 
mostly moderate seas through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a 
broad area low pressure in the far western waters that has 
potential for tropical cyclone formation this week.

Away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are 
over the western portion of the area, primarily west of a 
from about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in 
long- period east to southeast swell over these waters Mostly 
gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Rough seas are elsewhere 
north of about 10N between 110W and 123W and from 06N to 15N west
of 123W.
 
The remnant low of Odalys is near 23N123W with a pressure of 1004
mb. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the 
low in the W semicircle and within 60 nm of the low in the E 
semicircle. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. The low
pressure will turn to the south today into tonight and south-
southwest on Tue, dissipating Tue evening. Its associated 
seas will subside slightly by that time.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.8N 
113.2W this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late tonight, then 
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico 
near 29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate late Tue night. 
Tropical Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is 
moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt 
with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Rachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this afternoon, to near 14.9N 
103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 105.3W Tue afternoon and 
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 106.6W late Tue night with 
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rachel is forecast to 
reach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon, to near 19.0N 108.5W late 
Wed night and move to near 19.6N 109.2W late Thu night with 
maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. 

A broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing moderate to 
strong convection from 12N to 15N between 135W and 140W as it 
continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for further development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. 
The system should move generally northeastward and remain well 
east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of 
tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance 
over the next week.

$$
Aguirre