000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W extending from Guatemala 
southward to 01N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 
88W and 99W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N107W to 12N124W and
beyond 05N140W. A 1007 mb low is embedded within the monsoon 
trough near 08N132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 126W and 140W. In 
addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, 
scattered moderate isolated strong is also ongoing from 05N to 
14N between 108W and 120W. Otherwise, numerous strong convection
is coming off Colombia and moving across the offshore waters of
Panama.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the northern Gulf of California
into the Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the 
trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting gentle to 
moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores, and 
locally fresh SW to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of
California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas
remain slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder 
discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with
moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at
night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside
the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, 
reaching locally fresh winds midweek. Light to gentle winds will 
prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate SE
to S winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador
with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found 
elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate 
seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Moderate winds will 
pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of 
Papagayo through tonight. Light to gentle winds and slight to 
moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1007 mb low is centered near 08N132W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted in the environment of the
low from 03N to 12N between 126W and 140W. In addition moderate
to fresh winds are within 240 nm of the low center, likely
reaching strong speeds in the areas of strongest convection and
thunderstorm activity. Rough seas to 9 ft are also within that 
distance from the low center. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located well 
southwest of the Baja California Peninsula could support some 
gradual development during the next day or two while the system 
moves northward and then northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Thereafter,
increasing dry mid-level air is expected to limit further 
development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate 
seas will prevail.
 
$$
Ramos