000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251006
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.8N 135.1W, or about 1130 nm
east of Hilo, Hawaii at 25/0900, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt Latest satellite imagery shows 
that Fausto's overall structure has changed little during the 
past several hours. Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined 
eye and well-established upper-level outflow. The imagery shows
numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the 
center in the N semicircle, also within 120 nm of the center in 
the SE quadrant and 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate 
convection denoted an outer within 30 nm either side of a line 
from 20N133W to 21N135W to 19N138W and to 18N137W. Fausto is 
forecast to maintain its current motion for the next several 
days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.
Swells generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the 
Baja California Peninsula and southern California, and will begin
to affect the Hawaiian Islands by Sun. These swells are likely 
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 10.0N 103.6W, or about 
480 nm south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico at 25/0900 UTC
moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with 
gusts to 55 kt. satellite imagery shows that numerous strong 
convection is increasing over and near the center of Genevieve. 
The imagery depicts forming banding features mainly in the NW 
semicircle of Genevieve. Convection with these banding features 
is of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity within 
120 nm of the center in the S semicircle, within 30 nm of 
the center in the N semicircle, and from 10N to 14N between 
103W and 107.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen from 06N to 08N between 103W and 108W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 11N to 14N between 98W and 103W. Genevieve 
is forecast to stay well offshore of the Mexican coast during the
next few days as it continues in west-northwesward motion. 
Significant to rapid intensification is expected during the next 
few days. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and 
a major hurricane by early Mon. Swells generated by Genevieve 
are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern 
coast Mexico over the weekend and will likely reach southern 
portions of the Baja California peninsula on Mon. These swells 
are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 88W 
north of 03N to inland eastern El Salvador and across western
Honduras. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of 
the wave from 11N to 14N, and within 120 nm east of the wave
from 03N to 05N. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave 
axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends extends from western Colombia to
07N78W to 08N88W and to 09N94W. It resumes southwest of 
Genevieve at 08N105W and continues to 07N112W. The ITCZ axis 
extends from 07N112W to 08N125W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W-118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters west of
Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and relatively
lower pressures over Baja California is supporting moderate to 
fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to moderate 
northwest winds south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas over these waters
are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds are 
over waters southeast of Baja California to near 16N along with 
seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Fresh to strong 
east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery of 
Genevieve are present south of 16N along with seas 7 to 11 ft in
southeast to south swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve is about 480 nm south-
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico or near 10N103.6W at 25/0900 
UTC moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Genevieve will strengthen as 
it moves to near 11.0N 105.3W this afternoon with maximum 
sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near
12.2N 107.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt 
gusts 85 kt and begin to undergo rapid intensification as it 
reaches near 13.4N 109.8W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained 
winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, reach near 14.7N 111.7W late Sun night,
near 16.0N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115
kt gusts 140 kt and to near 17.0N 114.8W late Mon night. 
Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 
18.5N 117.9W late Tue night. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest
and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient
between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient 
will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve
will impact just about all of the offshore waters outside the 
Gulf of California, except for its entrance through next week 
building seas over these waters to 12 ft and greater.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to
southern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most 
of the offshore waters north of Costa Rica. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds 
will pulse across the Papagayo region well into next week.
Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Gentle to 
moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama into 
early next week with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected 
elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands 
and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. 
The southwest swell will subside around midweek. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto and on Tropical Storm Genevieve.

Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of
the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate 
circulation of Fausto extend northward to 25N, with seas to 8 ft 
reaching as far north of Fausto as 27N. Elsewhere, high pressure 
dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and 
also north of 15N west of about 120W. Moderate or weaker winds 
with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will begin to build 
seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W starting this 
morning.

A trough is along 126W from 03N to 12N. Scattered moderate convection
is from 03N to 07N between 123W and 128W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to near to 19.1N 
136.8W this afternoon, 19.5N 139.1W Sun morning to west of 
the area Sun afternoon. Genevieve will strengthen as it moves to
near 11.0N 105.3W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55
kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.2N 107.5W late
tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and begin
to undergo rapid intensification as it reaches near 13.4N 109.8W
Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, 
reach near 14.7N 111.7W late Sun night, near 16.0N 113.4W Mon 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt and to
near 17.0N 114.8W late Mon night. Genevieve will change little 
in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night.
As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california
Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high 
pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of 
Baja California Norte. 

The cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will gradually 
build seas to 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the south-central;
waters south of about 03N and between 94W and 128W going into
the early part of the week.

$$
Aguirre