251 
AXPZ20 KNHC 062134
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 83W north of 06N to across
western Central America along the border of Costa Rica and
Panama, continuing into the western Caribbean Sea, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the
monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 123W from 04N to 19N, moving
quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia from 09N75W
to 07N88.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06N92W to 08N122W, then 
resumes west of a tropical wave from 08.5N125W to beyond
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 04N between 91W and 96W, from 11.5N to 14N
between 91W and 96W, from 05N to 08.5N between 101W and 109W,
from 04N to 13N between 109W and 127W, and from 00N to 13N
between 127W and 140W. Similar convection is within 90 nm of the
coast of SW Mexico between 99W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends across the Baja California offshore
waters from WNW of the area while a surface trough is analyzed
from SW Arizona to the northern Gulf of California to Baja
California Sur. This pressure pattern supports moderate to
locally fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San
Lazaro, with similar wind speeds out of the SE-S in the central
and northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds
extend from the Gulf of Tehuantepec downwind to 12N100W. Seas are
mainly 4-7 ft across the open waters in S-SW swell, except mixed
with NW swell offshore Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the
Gulf of California N of the entrance. Active convection is 
present within 60 nm of the coast of SW Mexico between 99W and 
104W.

For the forecast, ridging will hold across the offshore waters 
of Baja California through Wed night, with the resultant gradient
leading to moderate to fresh NW winds over these same waters, 
locally strong to the north of Punta Eugenia through Tue night. 
Moderate to fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse
at fresh to strong speeds at night into the mornings through the
rest of the week and into the weekend, with seas to rough at 
times. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere, except 
increasing and pulsing to fresh to strong in the central and 
northern Gulf of California by the end of the week as the 
gradient tightens there. Fresh NW swell off California will push 
southward off Baja California Norte late Tue night into early 
Wed, continuing through Fri. Moderate seas are forecast 
elsewhere.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are continuing across the Papagayo region and 
extend offshore to near 90W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 09N. Moderate SE 
winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas 
are 6-9 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the 
remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu, then moderate to 
fresh thereafter. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Little change in winds is 
forecast elsewhere through the week. Cross equatorial SW swell 
will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands through early Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The 
combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas 
associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a 
peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue 
through Wed with mainly moderate seas otherwise. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge continues across the northeast tropical Pacific 
and N of the discussion area, extending SE to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge 
and the remnant trough of Douglas analyzed from near 27N130W to 
22N131W is producing fresh northeast winds from 25N to 30N to the
W of the trough to 135W. Seas are to 8 ft in a mix of easterly 
swells over these waters. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate 
across the remainder of the waters to the N of the ITCZ, except
locally fresh S of 18N. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds 
are south of the ITCZ. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in S to SW swell across
the waters mainly S of 14N, locally strong W of 135W near active
convection described above. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed 
swell across the remainder of the waters, except 7-9 ft in S-SW
swell S of 10N between 90W and 130W.

For the forecast, the remnant trough of Douglas will continue 
drifting westward through the rest of the week. The ridge will 
build ESE through Wed night, with the gradient between it and 
the remnant Douglas trough leading to a solid area of fresh 
trades over the western half of the area along with seas of 7-8 
ft. Large southerly swell with seas up to 9 ft will continue 
impacting the waters S of 06N through mid-week before gradually
decaying. Large northerly swells off California will build seas 
to around 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte by mid-week,
lingering through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, the 
tropical wave will continue moving westward with scattered 
moderate convection.

$$
Lewitsky