000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040915
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.2N 129.8W at 04/0900 UTC,
moving northwest at 7 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest
and west is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward
the southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast this weekend.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some strengthening is
forecast today and tonight. A weakening trend is forecast to 
begin by Friday night or Saturday. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is observed within 75 nm W of the center. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 92W from 03N N to near the
Guatemala/Mexico border, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 85W and 92W. A
cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the northern end
of the wave axis N of 11N between 87W and 90W. This convective 
activity is affecting parts of El Salvador and the Gulf of
Fonseca. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 09N92W to 1010 mb low
pressure located near 13N105.5W to 11N125W. It resumes SW of 
Tropical Storm Amanda near 09N132W and continues to 05N140W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
06N to 13N between 98W and 106W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection can be found from 02N to 08N E of 90W to the
coast of Colombia, from 10N to 14N between 124W and 128W, and
from 02N to 10N W of 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure center located near
32N141W, dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds 
prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 3 to 5 ft in 
long-period S to SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. For the 
remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate 
along with moderate seas, primarily in long-period S to SW swell,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the waters W of Baja California through the
upcoming weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. 
Rough seas, in NW swell, will propagate across the outer offshore
waters N of Punta Eugenia late today into Fri. Additional pulses
of NW swell will continue to reach the region into early next 
week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of 
southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. 
Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system into early next week, and a tropical 
depression could form during this time as it moves slowly 
northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico. 
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation in 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are over the Central American offshore 
waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of 
5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. Higher winds are noted
near the convective activity. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW
winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period SW swell are 
over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos 
Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, long period SW swell will continue to propagate
across the region creating moderate to rough seas. The highest
seas are expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Otherwise, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore 
of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early 
next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. Currently,
this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in
7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of the southern tip of Baja California.

Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters N of 16N and W of 
110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds across most of the area N of 10N and W of 
120W based on scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in 
the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N 
swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas
of 5 to 7 ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period 
southerly swell has created rough seas W of the Galapagos Islands.

The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of 
the week as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks toward the NW and W over
the western portion of the area, resulting in diminishing winds 
across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.8N 130.7W this afternoon, 
13.4N 132.0W Fri morning, 13.6N 133.0W Fri afternoon, 13.4N 
133.6W Sat morning, 13.1N 134.1W Sat afternoon, and weaken to a 
tropical depression near 12.7N 134.5W Sun morning. Amanda will 
become a remnant low as it moves to near 12.2N 135.3W early Mon.

$$
GR