000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W from 02N northward to
across eastern El Salvador and western Honduras and into the 
western Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 20 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N
to 11.5N between 84W and 89W. An area of low pressure is forecast
o form several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the 
coast of southern Mexico around the end of the week. Gradual 
development of this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form this weekend while the system 
moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of 
Mexico.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W south of 17N off the
coast of southwestern Mexico, moving quickly westward at around 
25 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 06N to 12N between 99W and 106W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 106W and 
112W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 134W, from 16N southward,
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 120W and 140W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form towards the end of the week or over the weekend while the
system moves generally westward across the western portion of 
the east Pacific and into the Central Pacific.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 09N75W to 08N104W to 05N119W to 09N140W. 
Other than the convection described above with three tropical 
waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 11N to 15N between 91W and 103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development
offshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.

High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-
southeastward into the regional waters to just west of the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and low pressure troughing across the Gulf of California is 
yielding moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the near and 
offshore of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, with 
moderate to fresh SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of 
California. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec area yields strong to near gale-force northerly gap 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and model guidance shows winds 
very close to minimal gale-force tonight so occasional gusts 
cannot be ruled out. Resultant rough seas are there. Winds are 
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 
4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, and 1 to 
3 ft inside the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and 
night through the end of the week, near gale-force with
occasional gusts to gale tonight. Seas will occasionally build 
to rough during periods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja
California will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of
California waters, with fresh to strong winds expected across 
northern portions there through Wed before gradually diminishing 
through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will diminish 
modestly across the Baja offshore waters through the end of the 
week as high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas are 
expected to build across the outer offshore waters of 
southwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in 
association with a developing area of low pressure, expected to 
develop outside of the offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any
convection.

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo 
region this evening and extend downwind to near 90W. Seas there 
are 5 to 8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough, and moderate to locally fresh south of the
monsoon trough. Seas across most of the remainder of the waters 
north of the Equator are 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial S to SW 
swell, and 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south of the Equator,
highest southwest of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure 
over Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing
to strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night
through the rest of the week and into the weekend, resulting in 
rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of 
Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala at times. Moderate to fresh southerly winds south of 
the monsoon trough and across the Galapagos waters will gradually
diminish through Thu. Moderate cross-equatorial SW swell moving 
into the regional waters will continue to merge with larger SE 
swell dominating the southern Pacific waters well south of the 
Galapagos to produce rough seas 8 ft and greater S of 01N, and 
moderate seas elsewhere through Thu before subsiding.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical
waves that have potential for tropical development later this 
week and into the upcoming weekend.

High pressure north of the waters extends a ridge south-
southeastward into the regional waters to just west of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds 
are noted from near 10N to 21N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 6
to 9 ft across these waters with a tropical wave helping to
enhance conditions there. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are
found south of 05N, with winds mainly moderate or weaker across
the remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of 05N in
mixed long period cross equatorial swell, and mainly 5 to 7 ft
across the remainder of the waters, slightly lower in the north-
central waters right under the ridging.

For the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the 
tropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds 
and seas to area waters, as they move south of the current ridge
in place. Away from these waves, little change is expected in 
marine weather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.

$$
Lewitsky