000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.4N 110.1W, or about 310 nm
southwest of Cabo Corrientes Mexico at 26/0300 UTC, moving west-
northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt.
Peak seas are 46 ft (14 m). Polo looks very impressive in 
satellite imagery as it remains a powerful category 5 hurricane 
on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A clear 15 nm wide 
eye is observed. The imagery reveals that Polo has numerous 
strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 
150 nm of the center in the SE and NW quadrants and 120 nm of the
center in the SW quadrant. Polo will maintain its current motion
tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Sat 
and north on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward 
and approach Baja California Sur. Fluctuations in intensity are 
possible tonight and Sat. Slow weakening is expected after that, 
but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it 
approaches Baja California Sur early next week. Polo is expected 
to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts 
of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of
forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National 
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 810 nm
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 
26/0300 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with 
gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are 38 ft (11.5 m). Odalys remains a
powerful major hurricane, though satellite imagery is beginning 
to show signs of weakening. Its eye remains rather ragged. The 
imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant, 75 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant, 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant. Odalys is expected to maintain 
its current motion through Sat, followed by a turn toward the 
northeast on Sunday. An eastward to southeastward motion is 
forecast early next week. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is 
forecast to begin tonight and continue through early next week.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low 
pressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves 
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of
tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical
formation through the next 7 days. The broader circulation, deep
moisture, and instability associated with this system is already
producing heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and 
Southern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Sat night 
across portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well 
as Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern Costa
Rica, to 10N85W to 11.5N91W to Invest EP90 and to 14N99W. It
resumes to the SW of Odalys at 12N127W, to 11N132.5W and to
beyond 14N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 02N to 10N between 129W-140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the 
trough between 85W-90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as low pressure 
developing south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very
heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. Fresh northeast
gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas 

Latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate gentle to
moderate northwest to north winds offshore the Baja California 
Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican
offshore waters away from Hurricane Polo. Light to gentle winds
are in the Gulf of California. Large seas in long-period
southeast to south swell out ahead of Polo are impacting the 
offshore waters of Baja California south of about Punta Eugenia
and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas produced by 
the swell are in the range of about 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft 
in west to northwest are over the offshore waters of the states 
of Michoacna and Guerrero and seas of 5 to 7 ft in west to
northwest swell are over the waters of those states. Seas of 2 to
4 ft are in the central section of the Gulf of California, 3 ft 
or less in the northern section and 4 to 6 ft in the southern 
section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.8N 
111.4W Sat morning, to near 19.0N 112.8W Sat evening, to near 
20.6N 113.6W Sun morning, to near 22.6N 113.8W Sun evening, to 
near 24.6N 113.4W Mon morning and to near 26.3N 112.1W Mon 
evening. Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm while 
moving inland over Sonora late Tue. Long-period swells generated 
by Polo will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja 
California offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, 
Hurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 810 nm west- 
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and
is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. 
Odalys will move to near 9.6N 123.5W Sat morning, to near 20.8N 
123.4W Sat evening, to near 21.9N 123.1W Sun morning, weaken to a
tropical storm near 22.4N 122.6W Sun evening, then become post- 
tropical and move to 22.3N 122.0W Mon morning, and weaken to a 
remnant low near 21.5N 121.3W Mon evening and reach near 19.3N 
119.8W late Tue. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming organized. 
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend 
or early next week while the system moves slowly west- 
northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SE winds have developed offshore Guatemala, flowing
toward lower pressure south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. 
Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas 
prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of 
Panama. 

For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the 
area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through 
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to 
prevail across the offshore waters through early next week, along
with mostly moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. 

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward 
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters 
west of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.
Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per latest satellite
altimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough 
seas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. 

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.4N 110.1W, or
about 310 nm southwest of Cabo Corrientes Mexico at 8 PM PDT, 
and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
150 kt with gusts to 185 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
911 mb. Polo will move to near 17.8N 111.4W Sat morning, to near
19.0N 112.8W Sat evening, to near 20.6N 113.6W Sun morning, to 
near 22.6N 113.8W Sun evening, to near 24.6N 113.4W Mon morning 
and to near 26.3N 112.1W Mon evening. Polo is forecast to weaken 
to a tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora late Tue. 
Long-period swells generated by Polo will impact a good majority 
of the Mexican and Baja California offshore waters through the 
period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or 
about 810 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja 
California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 952 mb. Odalys will move to near 9.6N 123.5W 
Sat morning, to near 20.8N 123.4W Sat evening, to near 21.9N 
123.1W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 122.6W 
Sun evening, then become post-tropical and move to 22.3N 122.0W 
Mon morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 21.5N 121.3W Mon 
evening and reach near 19.3N 119.8W late Tue. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
becoming organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves 
slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the 
weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
late this weekend or early next week. The system is forecast to 
move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands.

$$
Aguirre