000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050734
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09.5N84.5W to 01N99W to 02.5N110W. 
The ITCZ extends from 02.5N111W to 04N125W to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 
85W and 89W, and from 03.5N TO 06.5N between 129.5W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure well NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward  
toward Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough over 
NW Mexico is producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds offshore 
the Baja California waters per recent ASCAT scatterometer data,
except increasing to fresh to strong behind a cold front reaching
from southern California to near 30N, with winds becoming 
moderate northerly winds from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in NW swell 
across this area, except building to around 8 ft well offshore
Baja California Norte. Light northerly winds prevail across the 
Gulf of California where seas are slight. Elsewhere to the east,
a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle winds 
across the waters, except fresh to strong N winds in the 
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly moderate seas prevail 
offshore southern and SW Mexico, as well as across the remainder
of the waters.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area will build
modestly over the Baja California waters through early Fri and
will tighten the pressure gradient there, bringing fresh to 
strong NW winds during that time. Associated rough seas in 
northerly swell will persist off Baja California Norte into the 
weekend. Weak low pressure is expected to form just offshore 
Baja California Norte Fri through Sat, then shift slowly eastward
into early next week. This will push the strong NW winds 
offshore and W of 120W, and will relax the pressure gradient over
area waters, leading to improving marine conditions through the
weekend. Winds across Tehuantepec will pulse tonight to fresh to
strong speeds, before winds there become variable through the 
weekend.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are across the Papagayo 
region, with moderate to fresh N gap winds across the Gulf of 
Panama. Seas are 5 to 7 ft downwind of Papagayo and 4 to 5 ft 
downwind of the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light to 
gentle with slight to moderate seas of 5 ft or less in S-SW 
swell. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in 
the Papagayo region through the weekend and into early next week
as high pressure prevails N of the region. Moderate gap winds 
across the Gulf of Panama will pulse to locally fresh at night, 
otherwise mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere 
through the weekend. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial 
SW swell is expected to reach the waters offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands by Mon of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered NW of the region near 38N140W is 
dominating much of the waters N of 03N and W of 100W. The 
gradient between this building ridge and the ITCZ is leading to 
fresh to strong trades from roughly 06N to 30N between 120W and 
140W, along with 7 to 10 ft seas, and winds are moderate to 
fresh elsewhere N of 03N and W of 115W. A cold front is moving
into the far northern waters, reaching from 30N126.5W to
29N131.5W to 30N138W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. 
Seas through the remainder of the open waters are 4 to 7 ft in 
mixed swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the
area into late week, tightening the pressure gradient and 
supporting the area of fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to 
the W of 120W. Rough seas are expected to accompany these winds, 
continuing into the weekend. Gale-force winds are forecast just N
of the waters to the E of 130W. Looking ahead, low pressure is 
forecast to develop and linger near Baja California Norte Fri 
through Sat, then drift slowly eastward into early next week. 
This is expected to weaken the pressure gradient and gradually 
improve marine conditions across the waters across regional 
waters Sat through Mon. 

$$
Lewitsky