000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 121.1W at
30/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt
with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft (9.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 
180 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west-
northwest, followed by a more westerly motion over the next day 
or two. Karina is just below hurricane intensity. Strengthening 
is forecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to 
become a hurricane within the next day and could become a major 
hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin 
to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office. 

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 139.1W at 30/0900
UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W 
semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A 
westward motion should resume during the next few hours and 
continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is 
expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane 
by Monday or Monday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is
located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in the next several of days. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high
chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W north of 05N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from
05N to 07N between 80W and 87W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 04N to 15N, 
moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 100W AND 
110W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 08N90W to
12N108W. No significant convection is observed other than what
has already been described near Karina, Lowell and the tropical 
waves.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the 
potential of tropical cyclone formation.

While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican 
offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to 
very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are 
reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated
with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the 
islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across 
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally 
moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of 
California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong SE winds are impacting the 
Revillagigedo Islands through Sun, on the far eastern periphery 
of Hurricane Karina. These winds will diminish through late 
today as the storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very 
rough seas will gradually subside from east to west across the 
islands through Sun night and early Mon. Fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to 
strong southerly winds are expected across the northern and 
central Gulf of California through Sun night into Mon. Looking 
ahead, an area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical 
wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This 
system is expected to move west- northwestward to northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form in the next several of days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into
early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds
may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early
next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the
monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area of 
disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone 
formation.

A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone
Iselle, extends from 27N135W to 23N137W. Fresh to strong NE 
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end 
of the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 130W. Elsewhere, 
mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the 
open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from 
the two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas
generated by Karina cover the waters from 10N to 20N between 
110W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of 
the open waters.

For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.6N 122.5W this afternoon, 17.8N 124.3W
Mon morning, 17.9N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 18.3N 127.5W Tue morning,
18.9N 129.3W Tue afternoon, and 19.4N 131.0W Wed morning. Karina
will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.3N 133.8W 
early Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 13.0N 140.9W this 
afternoon, 13.0N 143.1W Mon morning, 13.1N 145.2W Mon afternoon, 
strengthen to a hurricane near 13.3N 147.2W Tue morning, 13.4N 
149.1W Tue afternoon, and 13.5N 150.9W Wed morning. Lowell will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 14.0N 154.0W early Thu.

$$
Christensen