000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100338
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 114W and extends from 07N to 16N, 
moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
from 13N to 15N between 112W and 116W.

A tropical wave is along 128W and extends from 07N to 15N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
12N to 15N between 127W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 03N82W to 09N87W to
05N95W. The ITCZ extends from 05N95W to 10N110W. The monsoon
trough resumes from 10N110W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 10N to 17N between 100W and
115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass showed only fresh gap
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but fresh to strong winds
are likely ongoing currently going into the overnight hours.
Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California,
supporting gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas, except
for 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are 
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. The
pressure gradient between the ridge W of the area and lower
pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California 
through Wed. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will promote
mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore 
waters of Mexico along with moderate seas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form southwest of
the Revillagigedo Islands by the middle part of the week. 
Little, if any, development of this system is anticipated while 
it moves generally west- northwestward. The latest Tropical 
Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds and rough seas persist across the
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft in SW swell
prevails elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
in the Papagayo region through Tue morning, reaching near gale- 
force speed at night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of
moderate to locally fresh easterlies with seas of 6 to 8 ft 
across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
through late Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue. Moderate or weaker southerly winds 
and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast
elsewhere through Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad ridging dominates the pattern north of 20N. Convergent
trade winds along with divergent flow aloft on the southeast 
side of an upper trough are altogether supporting clusters of
convection along and north of the monsoon trough west of 125W.
Low pressure may be starting form along the tropical at 128W.
Fresh winds and combined seas to 8 ft are noted from 10N to 15N
west of 135W. Farther east, fresh NE to E winds and 5-8 ft seas
originating from the Gulf of Papagayo region are reaching as far
as 100W along 08N to 10N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
are forecast to persist W of 125W likely through Tue. As 
previously mentioned, the tropical wave located several hundred 
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be 
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression 
could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion 
of the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase 
across the west-central portion of the forecast region by the 
early to middle part of the week as this system develops.

$$
Christensen