000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270348
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 
nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 27/0300 UTC, moving northwest 
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. Satellite 
imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm in the N 
semicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. Polo will maintain its 
current motion through tonight. A northward turn is expected on 
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Mon. On the 
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of 
Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Mon 
night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early 
Tue. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the
next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane as it 
approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to 
produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 
10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially 
in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast 
rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will 
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the 
Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal 
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm 
west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0300 UTC, 
moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Odalys continues to rapidly weaken. satellite imagery depicts 
that the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an
irregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of 
the deeper convection displaced north of the center. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the N
semicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle. A general northward to
north- northeastward motion is expected to continue through this
evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by 
early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next several 
days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by 
Mon.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Gale Warning (Invest EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue 
to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is 
anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a 
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so.
A Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds 
associated with this low later Sun into Mon offshore Oaxaca and 
Guerrero. In addition, this system is likely to bring very heavy 
rainfall over portions of Guatemala and Southern Mexico through 
tonight, which may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.Please refer to local weather services as well as the 
International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more 
information. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to
the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast 
of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of 
tropical formation within the next 48 hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica,
to 10N85W to low pres, Invest EP90, to 13.5N105W. It resumes 
to the southwest of Polo at 16N118W to 10N130W to low pressure 
near 12N140W 1006 mb and beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 83W-96W, and 
also from 04N to 11N between 131W-140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which 
has prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. 

The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are 
offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds 
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle 
winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the
offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight
seas in the central and northern gulf sections. 

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or
about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is 
moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb.
Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 
114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 
25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 
108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed.

Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of 
the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving 
north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85
kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will
weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move
to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to
22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N
122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to 
near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed.

An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm
activity increases. Additional development of the system is 
anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a 
tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. 
This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west- 
northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for 
waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in 
association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical 
formation of this low within the next 48 hours. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low
pressure, Invest EP90, organizes southwest of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. 
Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near
the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the 
area, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and 
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through 
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to 
prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with
mostly moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. 

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward 
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters 
west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas 
with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast
swell.  Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although 
a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N 
and west of about 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad 
area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or
about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is 
moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with
gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb.
Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 
114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 
25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 
108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane 
Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern
tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the 
minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a 
tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 
123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W
Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon 
evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 
122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed.

An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm 
activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the
next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the 
west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel 
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning 
has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting 
Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high 
chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 
hours. 

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 
miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming 
organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The 
system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a low chance of 
tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance 
over the next 7 days.

$$
Aguirre