000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281529
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Polo is centered near 24.2N 113.5W at 28/1500 UTC,
moving northeast at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
958 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120
kt. Peak seas are near 38 ft (11.5 M). Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Polo is 
expected to continue moving northeast with increase in forward 
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to 
move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late this 
afternoon or early this evening, then move inland in southern 
Sonora late tonight or early on Tue. Polo is a category 2 
hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is 
forecast to remain a powerful hurricane when it reaches Baja 
California Sur late today, and it is expected to be a hurricane 
when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late tonight or early 
Tue. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of
4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected 
across southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may
produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast 
rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 13.8N 101.2W at 28/1500
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are to 20 ft (6 M). Numerous strong
convection is within 120 nm of the center. Rachel is expected to
continue moving WNW over the next few days, keeping the center
well offshore the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical 
storm conditions are likely along the coast of Mexico within the
tropical storm warning area by Tue. Strengthening is expected 
during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a 
hurricane on Tue. Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting
portions of southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of 
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel.

A broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better 
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later 
today or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward
and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a 
high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern 
Nicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses.
It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N117W and continues to 
14N128W to Invest EP91 near 12N137W and to beyond 13N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
180 nm south of the trough between 128W-132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel.

These systems will impact a good majority of the forecast 
waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds 
are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle 
winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over 
the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with 
slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. 

For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move to near near 24.8N 
113.2W this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late tonight, then 
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico 
near 29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate late Tue night. 
Tropical Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is 
moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt 
with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb.
Rachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this afternoon, to near 14.9N 
103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 105.3W Tue afternoon and 
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 106.6W late Tue night with 
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rachel is forecast to 
reach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon, to near 19.0N 108.5W late 
Wed night and move to near 19.6N 109.2W late Thu night with 
maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Hazardous marine 
conditions will be impacting the majority of the Mexican offshore
waters through the forecast period. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala.
Seas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of 
the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient 
is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate
seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the 
Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain 
moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with 
mostly moderate seas through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area 
low pressure in the far western waters that has potential for 
tropical cyclone formation this week.

Away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are 
over the western portion of the area, primarily west of a 
from about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in 
long- period east to southeast swell over these waters Mostly 
gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Rough seas are elsewhere 
north of about 10N between 110W and 123W and from 06N to 15N west
of 123W.
 
The remnant low of Odalys is near 23N123W with a pressure of 1004
mb. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of the 
low in the W semicircle, and within 60 nm of the low in the E 
semicircle. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. The low
pressure will turn to the south today into tonight and south-
southwest on Tue, dissipating Tue evening. Its associated 
seas will subside slightly by that time.

For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.8N 113.2W 
this afternoon, to near 26.7N 111.6W late tonight, then move 
inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico near 
29.5N 109.4W Tue afternoon and dissipate late Tue night. Tropical
Storm Rachel is near 13.4N 100.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving 
west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with 
gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. 
Rachel will move to 13.9N 101.7W this afternoon, to near 14.9N 
103.5W late tonight, to near 16.1N 105.3W Tue afternoon and 
strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 106.6W late Tue night with 
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Rachel is forecast to 
reach near 18.2N 107.6W Wed afternoon, to near 19.0N 108.5W late 
Wed night and move to near 19.6N 109.2W late Thu night with 
maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. 

A broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to become better 
organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later 
today or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward
and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a 
high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

$$
Konarik