000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241022 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026

Corrected to include Fausto forecast in the Remainder of
the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.5N 129.9W, or about 1150 nm
west of the southern tip of Baja California at 24/0900 UTC, 
moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105
kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft. satellite imagery shows numerous 
moderate to strong convection within 60 nm of the center. Fausto 
is forecast to maintain its present motion over the next few 
days. Little change in intensity is forecast through tonight, 
followed by steady weakening through the weekend. Swells 
generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula and the coast of southern California. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Storm Warning: Low pressure, Invest Ep98 near new 1006 mb, is
gradually becoming better organized. Winds associated with this 
low pressure are expected to reach gale-force later today and 
storm-force of 45 to 55 kt afterward. Presently, seas are 8 to 10
ft with the low under winds of 20 to 30 kt. Seas are expected 
to build rather quickly through at night as the winds reach 
storm-force. Seas are expected to reach at peak of around 18 ft 
by late Sat. satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong
convection from 07N to 10N between 99W and 102W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09N
between 102W-106W. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for additional development of this system, and a tropical 
depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or so, 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward and remains 
well offshore of Mexico. The low pressure has a high chance of 
developing into a tropical depression of storm during the next 
couple of days.

Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov and please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that earlier was along 97W is no longer 
identifiable as the Special Features low is becoming better 
organized.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northwest Colombia 
to 08N78W to new to low pressure, Invest Ep98, near 09N99W to 
06N110W and to 09N122W. It resumes south of Fausto near 12N129W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
06N to 09N between 119W-123W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 180 nm south of the trough between 82W-86W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on 
a Storm Warning.

In the wake of Fausto a ridge is building across the offshore 
waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. This 
pattern supports fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, 
and mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds between Punta 
Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas generating by Fausto are still 
spreading across the area, and mixing with the building northerly 
wind waves to produce seas 6 to 8 ft across the Baja waters, highest 
N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate 
seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale and storm force winds may possibly impact
the southern portions of some of the zones through the next few 
days along with seas building in excess of 12 ft. This low 
pressure system is showing signs of becoming better organized. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional for 
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression 
or storm is likely to form in the next day or so, while the 
system moves generally west-northwestward and remains well 
offshore of Mexico. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high
pressure building in the wake of Fausto and a trough over the 
Gulf of California is producing fresh to strong north winds north
of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish this afternoon. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are forecast to in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
from early Sat through Sun afternoon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong north to northeast winds continue across the 
Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 91W, and northward
to northwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds 
based on altimeter data. This is occurring behind a tropical wave
with axis along 96W. The monsoon trough remains active across 
the offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with
seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will 
pulse at night and into the morning hours across the Papagayo 
region well into next week. Moderate or weaker winds along with 
moderate seas in SW swell will continue elsewhere. Seas 
associated with a developing tropical system near new may 
impact the offshore waters of Guatemala through Fri, building 
seas to around 9 ft. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will begin
to reach the Galapagos Islands by early this evening and build 
through the weekend and into Mon before decaying Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 1150 nm west of the southern 
tip of Baja California.

Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast
waters roughly from 12N to 27N between 121W and 135W. Fresh to 
strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto 
extend northward to 24N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of 
Fausto as 27N. A couple of altimeter passes also indicate that 
the 12 ft seas are reaching as far N as 23N. Elsewhere, a ridge 
dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also
north of 15N west of about 130W. Moderate or weaker winds with 
moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will begin to build seas 
over the equatorial waters west of 120W by early this evening.
 
For the forecast, Fausto will move to near 18.8N 131.9W this 
afternoon, to near 19.1N 134.5W late tonight, to near 19.5N 136.8W 
Sat afternoon, to near 19.8N 139.0W late Sat night, then weaken to a 
tropical storm west of the area near 20.1N 141.5W Sun afternoon.
Please refer to the Special feature section for details on the next 
tropical cyclone forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico in the 
near future. The cross-equatorial swell will gradually build seas to 
8 to 9 ft over the next few days.
$$
Aguirre