533 
AXPZ20 KNHC 101002
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.4N 117.9W at 10/0900
UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N 
between 113W and 118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 117W and 125W. A
generally westward motion is expected over the next couple of 
days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, 
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on 
Thursday. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 92W north of 02N through Guatemala. The
wave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong conveciton is from 04N to 15N between 90W and 
100W.
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 105W north of 02N. It is 
moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 03N to 22N between 100W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 
10N111W, then continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 13N119W to 
10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 
11N E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N W
of 136W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery 
of Tropical Storm Norbert are affecting the outer offshores of
the tip of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong N gap winds 
continue across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. 
Moderate to locally rough seas are with these winds. Light to 
gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Baja California 
under the influence of a weak ridge centered near 27N124W. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere 
across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.6N 119.9W this 
afternoon, 16.7N 122.5W Fri morning, 16.7N 124.8W Fri afternoon,
16.9N 126.9W Sat morning, 17.3N 128.9W Sat afternoon, and 17.8N 
130.4W Sun morning. Norbert will strengthen to a hurricane over 
18.5N 133.5W early Mon. A trailing tropical wave is forecast to 
provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican 
offshore waters through today. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE
gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through early Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo
region and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to 
moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, 
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Meanwhile, moderate 
to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some
afterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long
period SW swell are forecast elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information 
about Tropical Storm Norbert. 

Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.4N 117.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is
moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. 

For the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.6N 119.9W this 
afternoon, 16.7N 122.5W Fri morning, 16.7N 124.8W Fri afternoon, 
16.9N 126.9W Sat morning, 17.3N 128.9W Sat afternoon, and 17.8N 
130.4W Sun morning. Norbert will strengthen to a hurricane over  
18.5N 133.5W early Mon.  

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some 
gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week while the system moves 
generally westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 7 days.

$$
Ramos