946 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290329
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 14.2N 116.3W at 29/0300
UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 31 ft (9.5 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm
NW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest,
and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 
day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast 
to become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a major 
hurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to 
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja 
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 134.2W at 29/0300
UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW 
semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the northwest. A turn toward 
the west is expected overnight, and a westward motion at a 
faster forward speed is expected over the weekend. Little change 
in strength is expected through tonight. However, strengthening 
is expected to begin on Saturday, and Lowell could become a 
hurricane by Sunday night or Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from 05N to 15N, moving
quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 12N to 14N between 98W and 104W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 09N105W. In 
addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical 
wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active 
from 04N to 10N between 80W and 90W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Karina.

Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the
outer periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands.
Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate in this area, and
Tropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to
strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and downwind to about 14N. In the Gulf of California, moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are observed N of 29N per earlier
scatterometer data. Gentle winds and slight seas are occurring 
across the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen
to a hurricane southwest of Clarion Island near 15.1N 117.5W Sat
morning, and will bring strong winds and rough seas to the 
waters around the Revillagigedo Islands and southwest of Baja 
California Sur beyond 180 nm through late Sat. Karina will 
continue to move to the northwest and away from Mexican offshore 
waters through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap 
winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through 
early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to
moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong
southeasterly winds will persist in the northern Gulf of 
California through Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low
pressure is forecast to form during the next day or two well to 
the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves 
west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend
into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer 
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may
freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next
week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate
seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.

The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 25N132W 
with a central pressure of 1009 mb. Fresh to strong winds and 
moderate seas are occurring from 25N to 29N between 130W and 
135W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the 
remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon 
trough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical 
cyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters 
from 05N to 20N between 105W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate 
across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 117.5W Sat
morning, move to 16.2N 119.4W Sat evening, 17.0N 121.1W Sun
morning, 17.3N 122.8W Sun evening, 17.5N 124.6W Mon morning, and
18.0N 126.0W Mon evening. Karina will change little in intensity
as it moves to 19.1N 129.2W late Tue. Tropical Storm Lowell will
move to 12.6N 135.3W Sat morning, 12.7N 136.8W Sat evening, 
12.8N 138.6W Sun morning, and 13.0N 140.5W Sun evening. Lowell
will strengthen to a hurricane west of 140W Mon and continue to
move westward. 

$$
Christensen