000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, and extends from the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward, moving westward at around 
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 02N to 10N E of 90W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is along 101W, from 04N to 15N, 
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 90W and 101W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 130W from 07N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is
noted from 09N to 14N between 127W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N76w to 07N80W to 10N90W to 07N101W
to 14N115W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen 
from 05N to 15N between 108W and 120W, and from 04N to 08N W of 
134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula,
with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh 
SE winds along the Gulf of California. A surface trough moving
across the Bay of Campeche is helping to induce fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across 
the Baja California offshore waters through the middle of next 
week along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to 
strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds late today. Pulses of fresh to strong 
winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through early next 
week. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form over
the next couple of days, several hundred miles south- southwest 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week while the 
system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least 
fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the 
offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late Sun or Sun night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave along 87W is helping to induce scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection across the forecast waters from
Colombia to Guatemala. Fresh E winds are blowing across the
Papagayo region and downwind to 89W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere with the exception of light to gentle winds 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally
moderate in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through the middle of next week with moderate to
rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough seas may 
impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sun through 
Mon night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and W of 125W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere
along with moderate seas.  

For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
over the next couple of days, several hundred miles south- 
southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless 
of development, this system is expected to bring strong winds 
and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore waters Sun through 
midweek.

$$
GR