000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080834
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W to the north of 06N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A new tropical wave is analyzed along 107W, from 02N to 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A tropical wave is analyzed along 131W from 02N to 16N, moving
westward at around 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 09N85W to 07N90W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 07N105W, from 07N109W to 09N130W,
and from 08N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
active from 05N to 15N between 95W and 105W, from 05N to 10N
between 115W and 125W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to locally strong NW winds and 6-7 ft seas are observed in
recent satellite data off Baja California Norte between high
pressure west of the area and lower pressure over northwest
Mexico. Farther south, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are
active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 5-7 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except
1-3 ft seas across the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are
active inland from Jalisco to Sonora, and gusty winds may be
occurring near the coast.
For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California through mid
week, with lower pressure inland over northwest Mexico. This
pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off
Baja California Norte through tonight, with rough seas in NW
swell near Guadalupe Island into Thu. The winds will diminish
Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower
Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S
winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week. Looking ahead, lowering
pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to
strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore southern
Mexico by the weekend.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated a pulse of fresh
to strong NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region
and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated
to be 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to
the N of 08N. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama
downwind to near 07N, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate SE winds are
across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas
are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the
remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and
into the morning hours. Cross equatorial SW swell will move
through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes
and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking
ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will
induce fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas
offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 137W/138W from 23N to
29N. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N,
supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and
SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted farther
S ahead of the tropical wave near 131W, specifically from 10N to
20N between 130W and 140W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted
elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 05N between
90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will accompany the
tropical wave near 131W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt,
reaching 135W by tonight, and past 140W by late Fri. Farther N,
swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the E of 125W
through Fri. Farther S, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south
of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri.
$$
Christensen