000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122113
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
remain favorable for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle
part of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward,
well off the coast of Mexico. This system is along a tropical wave
with axis along 98W/99W. Recent scatterometer data indicate increasing
winds across the area, particularly from 11N to 16N between 95W and
98W. However, some of these winds could be associated with the strongest
convection there. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours,
and a high chance through 7 days.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further 
details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W/99W, and extends northward
over SE Mexico, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 
91W AND 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 131W/132W from 06N to 18N, 
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed
along the wave axis near 13N131.5W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 128W 
and 135W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N87W to 10N97W to 
06N110W to 07N115W, then resumes W of a trough located along 120W 
near 11N124W and continues along 13N131.5W to 07N140W. Aside 
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 07N
E of 82W to the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 17N between 100W 
and 105W, and from 07N to 11N W of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas in mixed swell.
Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California where
slight seas prevail, except near the entrance to the Gulf where 
seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas.
An area of fresh to strong winds extends from the coast of Oaxaca
to about 11N between 95W and 98W. Over the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW
and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing 
for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with 
moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this 
period. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche will
support pulses of fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region
Mon and Tue, then mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected
through Thu. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more
details. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of
moderate to fresh winds across the Papagayo region and downwind 
to about 89W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW 
prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region mainly at night through Fri night along with 
moderate to rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough 
seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador 
and Guatemala tonight and Mon as a broad area of low pressure 
persists several hundred miles south of the coast of southern 
Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell 
will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands
where slight seas are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N W of 110W. 
Under the influence of the ridge, mainly light to gentle winds 
are observed with moderate seas in mixed swell. S of 20N, there 
are two tropical waves and surface trough. The surface trough 
runs from 18N118W to 12N120W to 06N121W. A few showers are near
the trough axis. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along 
with moderate seas.

For the forecast: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring
several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development
across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances
are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a broad area of 
low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico that continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section
for more details. The second one is an area of low pressure located
well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula that continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily east
of its center. Some additional development of this system is possible
over the next day or so before it moves west-northwestward into 
a less favorable environment. Currently, the Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the
next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. An area of low pressure is
expected to form by the middle of this week several hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development of this system later this
week, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week
while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico.
This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through
7 days.

$$
GR