000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100901
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 12.4N 88.5W at 10/0900
UTC, moving west at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4.0 m. Numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm in the NE 
semicircle and 240 nm in the SW semicircle. Additional similar 
convection is inland over portions of southern Mexico and 
Guatemala, with outer scattered moderate near the coast of Oaxaca
and Chiapas. Cristina is moving toward the west. A turn toward 
the west-northwest and northwest is expected today and tonight, 
with a continued northwestward motion on Thu. On the forecast 
track, Cristina should linger offshore of El Salvador, Honduras, 
and Nicaragua today and then approach the coast of El Salvador 
tonight into early Thu. Slight strengthening is possible through
tonight, with weakening forecast on Thu after Cristina moves 
inland. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thu. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Cristina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across Panama
at 08.5N77W to just S of the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W, then
resumes well WSW of Tropical Storm Cristina at 10.5N94W to
07N114W to 08.5N134W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N134W to
10.5N139W with low pressure just W of 140W at 11N140.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02.5N to 05.5N
between 83W and 85.5W, from 05N to 08N between 104W and 107W, and
from 05N to 09.5N between 135.5W and 139.5W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure, 1030 mb, NW of the area near 36N144W or well NE 
of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge SE through 30N136W to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Broad troughing exists over
mainland Mexico, as well as from Baja California near Cabo San
Lazaro southwestward disrupting the pressure pattern. As a
result, moderate to fresh NW-N winds are found offshore Baja
California Norte. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, locally
fresh near Cabo San Lucas and through Baja Sur gaps into portions
of the southern Gulf of California. Seas are 7-9 ft in mixed
cross-equatorial long period, decaying S-SW swell and shorter
period NW swell. Seas are 7-10 ft in the same decaying swell to
the E of 103W, and 7-8 ft between 103W and 110W. In the Gulf of 
California, seas are 3 ft or less, except 4-7 ft near the 
entrance in the old southerly swell.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending into the 
waters of the Revillagigedo Islands will weaken and shift 
westward today through the upcoming weekend, as broad low 
pressure along the coast of southern California drifts westward. 
This will lead to light to gentle winds across the waters of Baja
California, and moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds inside 
the Gulf of California. Afternoon and evening winds will pulse 
moderate to locally fresh near the coast Fri through the weekend.
Northerly swell will merge with strong S swell moving through 
the Baja waters through today to maintain rough seas before 
subsiding. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds will dominate
the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec through Fri, 
then weaken into the weekend. Large cross-equatorial S-SW swell 
dominating those waters will gradually subside through today, 
while mixed swells off Baja Norte to rough linger through Thu.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, just offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca. Active
nearby convection is described above.

Moderate to fresh winds surround Cristina from roughly N of 10N
and E of 90W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder 
of the waters, locally moderate to fresh out of the SE near the 
Galapagos Islands. Seas are 7-11 ft N of 05N, and mainly 6-8 ft S
of 05N.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cristina will move to 12.7N 
88.9W this afternoon, 13.4N 89.5W Thu morning, move inland and 
weaken to a tropical depression near 14.5N 90.0W Thu afternoon, 
and dissipate Fri morning. Heavy rainfall is expected across 
coastal portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador and may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain. Otherwise, cross-equatorial S-SW swell will 
continue to impact the regional through today while gradually 
subsiding, resulting in large and powerful surf along the coasts.
Refer to your local meteorological information for more details 
on the surf zone and beach impacts. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters Thu into 
the weekend, except locally rough seas in new southerly swell 
near the Galapagos Islands Thu and Thu night. Winds may pulse to
moderate to locally fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the
immediate Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama during the upcoming
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Amanda is analyzed just 
W of 140W near 101N140.5W. High pressure, 1030 mb, NW of the area
near 36N144W or well NE of the Hawaiian Islands extends a ridge 
SE through 30N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Broad 
troughing exists over mainland Mexico, as well as from Baja 
California near Cabo San Lazaro southwestward to near 10N124W 
disrupting the pressure pattern to the E of the troughing. N of 
10N and W of the broad troughing, moderate to fresh N-NE trades
prevail along with 6-9 ft in mixed northerly and southerly
swells. Winds are gentle to moderate across the remainder of the
open waters, except locally fresh S of the Equator and E of 110W.
Seas are 7-10 ft in decaying long-period, cross-equatorial swell
N of 08N and E of 104W, and mainly 6-8 ft across the remainder of
the waters.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridging is forecast to weaken
and back off to the NW as the broad troughing deepens slightly
and weakens the pressure pattern. This will result in the
moderate to fresh trades N of 10N and W of 120W diminishing later
today through Thu. Winds will then be moderate or weaker across
the entire open waters, except locally moderate to fresh during
the upcoming weekend near any transient, embedded low pressure
areas in the monsoon trough. For seas, northerly swells mixed
with the longer period southerly swells with seas of 7-9 ft will
linger across the N-central waters through the remainder of the
work-week before finally decaying. Meanwhile, long-period
southerly swell with rough seas over eastern portions will
subside today into tonight. Seas may pulse to 8 ft S of 10N
between 95W and 125W through the end of the week. Otherwise and
afterwards moderate seas will dominate the open waters.
 
$$
Lewitsky