000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162232
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning:
A strong ridge of high pressure just west of the Baja California
Peninsula is going to induce a gale wind event in the northern 
and central Gulf of California this evening through early Mon 
morning. These winds will stay at fresh to strong through Sun but
will peak at near-gale to gale-force at the northern Gulf of 
California on Sun night, along with seas near 9 ft. As the ridge 
weakens on Mon, both winds and seas should quickly subside 
through Mon afternoon.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more
detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from southwestern 
Costa Rica to 08N94W to 05N100W. An ITCZ continues westward from
05N100W across 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to 
scattered strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N east of 89W,
including offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from
04N to 08N between 91W and 100W, and from 02N to 11N between 
113W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for an upcoming
Gale Warning.

The pressure gradient between a strong, broad surface ridge west
of Baja California and a thermal trough over Baja California is 
generally moderate to fresh NW winds with 8 to 11 ft seas in
large NW swell near Baja Norte, and moderate NW to N winds with 6
to 7 ft seas in moderate NW swell near Baja Sur. Gentle to
moderate N winds and seas near 6 ft are present near the
Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas
at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northern Gulf of California, while 
light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist for the rest of 
the Gulf. Light to gentle winds along with 2 to 5 ft seas in
mixed moderate swells prevail for the offshore waters of central
and southern Mexico.

For the forecast, strong ridge of high pressure to the west will
cause fresh to strong S to SW gap winds in the northern and 
central Gulf of California this evening through early Mon 
morning. These winds will peak at near-gale to gale-force in the 
northern Gulf of California along with rough seas Sun night. In 
addition, NW winds at fresh to strong off Baja Norte, and at 
moderate to fresh off Baja Sur are anticipated later tonight 
through Mon morning. Rapidly building long-period NW swell is 
going to create rough to very rough seas off Baja Norte through 
Tue night, and off Baja Sur Sun through Tue. 
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are evident off the
Papagayo region to near 88W. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swell exist across the 
central America offshore waters. For the waters off Colombia and
Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to
SW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate SW swell prevail.
Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough
section for convection in the region.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds off the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong during the night-time hours through 
Tue night. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in 
southerly swell are expected through midweek next week. Scattered
to numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will 
persist in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia
through Mon.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1035
mb high located well west of northern California across 30N130W 
to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature 
continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ, with 
moderate to fresh N to NE trades north of the ITCZ and west of 
120W. Under a building NW swell, seas in this area range from 6 
to 11 ft with the highest near 30N122W. For the remaining area 
north of the ITCZ, mainly gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in 
mixed moderate swell exist. From Equator to the ITCZ west of 
100W, and from 03S to the Equator between 93W and 120W, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate 
swells are evident. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft in 
moderate SW swell prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will stay near
it current location through Sun, maintaining tight pressure 
gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W. This
will keep fresh to strong NW to N winds for this area through Mon
morning. Associated long-period, large northerly swell will continue
to raise seas across the waters west of Baja California Norte to
near 130W, reaching 11 to 17 ft Sun and Sun night, and from 9 to
14 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. A trough, with 
possible weak low pressure along it, should develop offshore 
southern California and extreme northern Baja California early 
next week, which will break down the described tight pressure 
gradient, thus allowing for the fresh to strong winds over the 
northeast part of the area to drop-off quite significantly. The 
swell will gradually decay going into the middle part of next 
week, with seas lowering to just below 8 ft.

$$

Chan