506 
AXPZ20 KNHC 082126
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is SW of Tehuantepec with axis near 98W, 
extending from 05N to 15N, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 15N between
95W and 100W.  

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 117W, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 11N to 16N between 115W and 120W.

A tropical wave extends from 01N to 18N with axis near 137W, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 11N to 15N between 134W and 138W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N85W to 09N95W. 
Segments of the ITCZ extend from 09N100W to 10N115W, and from 
10N118W to 10N135W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
07N between 78W and 85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An afternoon scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong N 
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching about 14N. An 
earlier altimeter satellite pass indicated rough seas are 
associated with these strong gap winds. Moderate NW winds are
noted off Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Outside of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, seas are 4-6 ft except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of
California. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are
expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week.
The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and 
lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support fresh 
to locally strong southerly winds across the southern and 
northern Gulf of California through late Mon. Elsewhere, a 
moderate pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate
winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An earlier scatterometer satellite pass is showing fresh to 
strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. A plume of these
winds extend as far west as 360 nm downstream, and associated
seas are likely 6-8 ft. Moderate N to NE gap winds are also
active across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, mostly gentle
breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in
the Papagayo region through Wed, reaching near gale-force
briefly tonight through late Sun. The gap wind event will
produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies across
the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate
or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across
the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the
forecast period. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW
swell are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high near 36N140W extends a ridge across the 
subtropical E Pacific waters to nearly 115W. The gradient of 
pressure between this area of high pressure and a tropical wave 
with axis near 135W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds
from 10N to 20N W of 135W. Seas over these waters are 7-8 ft. 
Large SE swell to 8 ft are found over the waters S of 05N between
115W and 135W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, persistent fresh trade winds west of 125W will
maintain moderate to rough seas through the early part of the
week. This will be possibly be followed by developing low
pressure along the ITCZ/monsoon trough near 125W by Tue, and a tropical 
depression could form by midweek while the system moves slowly 
west-northwestward. Also, an area of low pressure could form 
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle 
of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves generally west- northwestward, although
chances for tropical cyclone development remain low.

$$
Christensen