000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200851
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fausto: Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near
12.9N 115.6W at 20/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 
currently around 15 ft or 4.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is noted within 180 nm in the SE semicircle. Scattered
to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
elsewhere from 04N to 16N between 109W and 122W. Fausto is 
moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion with a
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected through Tue. The 
cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through Wed before 
gradually increasing its forward speed later in the week.
Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple
of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane tonight.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near
25.3N 127.1W at 20/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 11 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 
currently around 16 to 18 ft or 5 to 5.5 m. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is well removed from the center of
circulation and is found from 26N to 30N between 123W and 130W. 
Elida is moving toward the north-northwest. A turn to the north 
with an increase in forward speed is forecast the during the next
couple days. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Elida is 
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone today or tonight.
Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
during the next several days. These swells will likely result in
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia at
11.5N73W to 10N85W to 07N97W. The ITCZ extends from 07N97W to
12N110.5W, ending to the east of Fausto. The monsoon trough
resumes southeast of Elida and northwest of Fausto from 17N123W 
to 08.5N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above with
Fausto and Elida, numerous moderate scattered strong is found 
from 04N to 10N between 77W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong is noted within 120 nm southeast of the monsoon trough
between 125W and 132W, and within 120 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 136W and 140W.
  
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 682 nautical miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on 
Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 952 nautical miles west-
northwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are noted in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec near the coast per the edge of a
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds
extend from the central to the northern Gulf of California with
some overnight convection there. Winds are moderate or weaker 
across the remainder of the waters, except locally moderate to 
fresh E to SE winds south of 20N and west of 110W near the 
Revillagigedo Islands on the outer periphery of Fausto. Seas are 
slight in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance, and 
moderate elsewhere, except rough near the Revillagigedo Islands 
due to Fausto just south of the area.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.8N 
116.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 
118.3W Tue morning, 15.9N 119.9W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 121.5W Wed 
morning, 16.9N 123.1W Wed afternoon, and 17.3N 125.2W Thu 
morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves well
away from the area to 17.9N 130.4W early Fri. Fresh northerly 
winds will pulse to strong at times in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through the week with locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh SE 
winds will pulse in the central and northern Gulf of California 
through today. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by 
the end of the week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low 
pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the 
system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and 
central portions of the eastern Pacific.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to near 09N89W, as captured by recent ASCAT-C
and OSCAT-3 scatterometer passes. Seas are locally rough with
these winds. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 
moderate across the offshore waters, except slight in the 
immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is
present near the monsoon trough from western Colombia to across
Panama and Costa Rica as well as just offshore of there. Locally
higher winds and seas possible in any thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early 
Fri, with moderate to fresh winds extending downwind to the outer
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador at times. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected
elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands 
and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 682 nautical miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on 
Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 952 nautical miles west-
northwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate the open waters.
Moderate the fresh SE to S winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail
across the waters south of 08N between 105W and 125W as indicated
by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh winds and 
locally rough seas are diminishing and subsiding near an area of
disturbed weather at 10N102W, while associated convection is
dissipating. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
across the remainder of the waters away from Elida and Fausto.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.8N 
116.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 
118.3W Tue morning, 15.9N 119.9W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 121.5W Wed 
morning, 16.9N 123.1W Wed afternoon, and 17.3N 125.2W Thu 
morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves well
away from the area to 17.9N 130.4W early Fri. Tropical Storm
Elida will move to 27.2N 127.5W this afternoon, become post- 
tropical and move to 30.0N 127.8W Tue morning, weaken to a 
remnant low north of the discussion waters near 32.7N 127.7W Tue
afternoon, 34.6N 127.4W Wed morning, 36.7N 127.0W Wed afternoon,
and dissipate Thu morning. Also, moderate to fresh winds and 
locally rough seas over the south-central waters that follow in 
behind Fausto will gradually spread northward through the early 
part of the week. A new set of rough southerly swell may spread
northward to near the Equator by the end of the week. Little 
change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of 
the open waters at least into midweek.

Looking ahead, A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop
well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- 
northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the 
eastern Pacific.

$$
Lewitsky