000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210758
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 97W from offshore Oaxaca southward is
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 09N between 92W and 102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N114W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including
the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 
108W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to
08N between 102W and 108W and from 06N to 09N W of 135W 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to
mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds
are impacting waters near Cabo San Lucas as modest ridging builds
in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate in the offshore waters,
and slight in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through
late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds.
By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward
the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore
Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are in the
Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, outside of of the convection that is described in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the Monsoon Trough, light
to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate, with gentle to
moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to the south. 

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the
Papagayo region. otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak low pressure that had been W of Baja California has devolved
into a surface trough that extends from 26N119W to 23N123W.
Shower activity that had been in the vicinity has dissipated.
Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough
around 10N120W. Convection near this low is described in the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge 
extends southeastward from a 1035 mb high near 37N144W across 
30N140W. This feature is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds 
and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. 
Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW
and S swells exist north of the ITCZ east of 125W. South of the 
ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in 
moderate southerly swell prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually 
weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. 
This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to 
between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this
weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the
weekend.

$$ 
Konarik