000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010955
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.0N 127.9W at 01/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with
gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 36 ft. Numerous moderate 
to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 
125W and 130W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are 
possible through Tuesday morning followed by a gradual weakening 
trend beginning by late Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja 
California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely 
spread northward to southern California through midweek. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 13.8N 108.9W at 01/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft. Numerous moderate to
scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 
103W and 120W. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 kt, 
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 
couple of days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Marie is 
expected to become a hurricane in the next day or so. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 96W-97W from 03N-11N, moving west 
around 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated
with it at the time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N97W to 08N105W, 
then resumes again from 11N111W to 15N122W. Numerous moderate 
and scattered strong convection is occurring from 04N to 13N E of
94W, and from 04N to 10W west of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
newly formed Tropical Storm Marie.

Tropical Storm Marie is near 13.8N 108.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is 
moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with 
gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over 
Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Marie will move to 14.8N 109.9W this afternoon,
16.0N 111.3W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 
112.5W Wed afternoon, 18.0N 114.0W Thu morning, 18.8N 115.5W Thu 
afternoon, and 19.4N 117.0W Fri morning. Marie will change little
in intensity as it moves near 20.9N 119.6W early Sat. Elsewhere,
winds and seas should remain quiescent. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region and moderate
or weaker elsewhere with seas 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the
next several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina, and Tropical Storm Marie.

Aside from Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, winds across the 
High Seas are moderate to locally fresh with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, Marie will move to 14.8N 109.9W this afternoon, 
16.0N 111.3W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 
112.5W Wed afternoon, 18.0N 114.0W Thu morning, 18.8N 115.5W Thu 
afternoon, and 19.4N 117.0W Fri morning. Marie will change little
in intensity as it moves near 20.9N 119.6W early Sat.  

Karina will move to 18.5N 129.3W this afternoon, 18.9N 131.3W
Wed morning, 19.3N 133.2W Wed afternoon, 19.6N 135.0W Thu
morning, 19.9N 136.9W Thu afternoon, and 20.2N 138.7W Fri
morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 
20.8N 142.3W early Sat. 

$$
Ramos