000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312122
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 22.3N 130.2W at
31/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft or 8.0 m. Scattered
moderate convection within 90 nm in the NW semicircle, and 30 nm
in the SE semicircle of the system. While thunderstorm activity
has been weakening over the past few hours, thunderstorms may
periodically redevelop over the next 12-18 hours as the storm
moves over slightly warmer waters. Genevieve is expected to 
only slightly weakening through 24 hours accordingly, then resume
a steady weakening trend thereafter as it continues to move on a
west- northwest track through the weekend over cooler water. The
system is forecast to become post- tropical late this weekend. 

Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the
Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will
persist through this evening then subside. The swells are likely
to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, N of 02N into the 
Nicaragua and Honduras, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. 
Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough 
section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W/116W, from 02N to 18N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in 
the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section below. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N90W to 05N110W to 08N110W. A segment of the 
central Pacific ITCZ extends from southwest of Genevieve near 
15N128W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 04N to 07N between 85W and 100W, and from 08N to 11N 
between 113W and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong 
gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds 
are likely due to higher pressure over south-central Mexico and 
lower pressure farther south into the tropics. Seas are estimated
to be 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The satellite data also
showed moderate NW winds off Baja California, on the western 
edge of ridging farther west offshore. Gentle to moderate SE 
winds are noted across the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. 
Light to gentle breezes and 3-5 ft combined seas in W swell are 
noted elsewhere off southern Mexico.

For the forecast, lowering pressure over the Colorado River 
Valley will support fresh to strong SW winds and building seas 
over the northern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun morning. 
Elsewhere, high pressure will build off Baja California through 
early next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate NW winds 
across the offshore waters of Mexico. Long-period NW swell will 
move into the waters off Baja California Norte Sun night through 
Tue then subside.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Several recent scatterometer satellite passes showed a long 
plume of moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching as far west as 90W. Seas are
estimated to be 5-7 ft. Moderate gap wind are in the Gulf of 
Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are noted between the Galapagos 
Islands and Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse 
across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough 
seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are 
expected across the remainder of the waters through the period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.

For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is 
centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient 
between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas 
in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve will move
to 22.8N 132.3W Sat morning, 23.6N 135.2W Sat afternoon, 24.4N 
138.0W Sun morning, 25.4N 140.6W Sun afternoon, then weaken to a
remnant low west of area by late Sun. Away from Genevieve, 
little change in marine conditions is forecast through the 
weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is likely to push 
southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N 
and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. 
New large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west
of 100W beginning Tue night.

$$
Christensen