000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280826
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 12.7N 114.3W at 28/0900
UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous 
moderate to strong thunderstorms extend 240 nm in the NW and 120 
nm SE semicircles. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest 
and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 
several days, reaching its closest point of approach to Clarion 
Island late Fri night into early Sat. Strengthening is 
anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over 
the weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin
to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to 
cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office. Please read the 
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.7N 133.0W at 28/0900
UTC, moving east-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm in
the SW semicircle and 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Lowell is 
moving toward the east-northeast, with a westward motion 
expected by Saturday. Strengthening is likely during the next 
several days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday. 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 06N into
Chiapas, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby 
convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence 
Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N107W, and from 
12N118W to 13N130W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection 
near Karina and Lowell, scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is active from 05N to 115N between 85W and 120W, and 
from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina.

Winds are increasing along with building seas just south of the 
Revillagigedo Islands ahead of T.S. Karina. Fresh to strong N to 
NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas persist elsewhere over the 
offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, Karina will move to 13.6N 115.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a
hurricane near 15.1N 116.9W Sat morning, 16.5N 118.9W Sat
afternoon, 17.5N 120.7W Sun morning, 18.2N 122.5W Sun afternoon,
and 18.4N 124.2W Mon morning. Karina will change little in
intensity as it moves to 19.3N 127.3W early Tue. Fresh to strong
northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at 
times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of 
fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible 
associated with convective complexes may move up the central and 
northern Gulf of California both tonight and Sat nights. Looking
ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this 
weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next 
week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to
15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a 
similar path to Karina. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist the Gulf of Papagayo 
downwind to near 10N90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and in the Gulf
of Panama.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming
weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.
Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to 
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly
winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into 
early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with 
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the 
monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm
Lowell.

The remnant 1007 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 24N130W 
with fresh to strong winds around rough seas within 180 nm in the
northwest quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or 
weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north
and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical 
storms and Post- Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell 
surround Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 105W and
120W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open 
waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 13.6N 115.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a
hurricane near 15.1N 116.9W Sat morning, 16.5N 118.9W Sat
afternoon, 17.5N 120.7W Sun morning, 18.2N 122.5W Sun afternoon,
and 18.4N 124.2W Mon morning. Karina will change little in
intensity as it moves to 19.3N 127.3W early Tue. Tropical Storm 
Lowell will move to 12.1N 132.8W this afternoon, 12.3N
133.6W Sat morning, 12.5N 134.8W Sat afternoon, 12.7N 136.4W Sun
morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 138.1W Sun
afternoon, and 13.1N 139.8W Mon morning. Lowell will change
little in intensity as it moves west of 140W late Mon. The 
remnant low of Iselle will open up into a trough late today 
while remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west- northwest
to 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Looking 
ahead, much larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may 
impact the southern waters by early next week. Also, another area
of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the 
south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining 
increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.

$$
Christensen