034 
AXPZ20 KNHC 040312
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 94W, south of 16N, moving west at 15 to
20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the 
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 104W, south of 16N, moving 
west at 10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in 
the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 09N95W to 08N105W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 10N120W to 06N130W to beyond 
09N140W. Scattered to locally numerous to strong convection is 
noted from 01.5N to 10.5N east of 92W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14.5N between 92W
and 101W and from 03N to 12.5N between 105W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California
waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW 
and SW swell, per earlier satellite altimeter data. Gentle 
breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. 
Fresh NW to N gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue 
in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream 
to near 14.5N this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are offshore the coasts from Chiapas and Guerrero, S of 14.5N, 
and continue to shift westward. 

For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California 
will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming 
moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California 
starting Sat evening through Tue, as the high pressure builds 
modestly into the area. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the 
Tehuantepec region will pulse again to strong tonight through Sat
morning, then diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, 
large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off southern 
Mexico early next week.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Reports from Liberia, Costa Rica show E to SE winds to 20 kt, 
hinting there are fresh to strong gap winds across the nearby
Gulf of Papagayo and off the coast of Nicaragua. Associated seas
are likely 6-7 ft so far this evening, with a component of SW
swell. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms remain active along
the monsoon trough as far west as 95W. Gentle to moderate breezes
are noted elsewhere with 5-7 ft seas. 

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue to shift westward across the area waters through early
Sun before activity begin to shift northward into the Caribbean.
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse at night across the
Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional
rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area
seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the N of 04N
through Sun morning, before increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador
and the Galapagos Sun evening through Tue. The combination of the
southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap
winds will allow combined seas to 8 ft off northern Central 
America by Tue. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1005 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Douglas, is
centered near 21N129W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated fresh to strong winds are still active within 240 nm of
the center of Douglas, mainly on the northern side between the
low the subtropical ridge to the north of the area. Concurrent
altimeter satellite data showed wave heights to 13 ft just to the
east of the center, indicated maximum seas to 14 ft in the area
of strongest winds to the north of the center. The presence of
this low pressure is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of 
20N. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere west of 120W, with 5-7 ft seas in a mix of swell. East
of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas emerging 
from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 105W, from 
08N to 11N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave
heights are 6-8 ft with SW swell. 

For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas 
will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low 
weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift 
southwestward and generally persist across the region through 
early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther
south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may 
form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle
part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support 
some gradual development of this system while it moves generally 
westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this 
time are low.

$$
Christensen