000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101454
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83/84W, from the NW 
Caribbean southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby 
convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, from southern Mexico
southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 18N southward, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in 
the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N97W to 11N112W to
07N131W. The ITCZ continues from 07N131W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
07N to 10N between 84W and 88W. Scattered to numerous moderate
and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between
88W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to 11N between 111W and 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula,
with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure
gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing south
of southern Mexico is helping to induce fresh to strong gap winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are noted off Cabo
Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
moderate or less across the discussion waters, reaching locally
rough in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across 
the Baja California offshores through Tue night along with slight
to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across
the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate 
speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale-force speed 
Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at 
least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to 
form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles 
south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next 
week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. 
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure 
may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough
seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico Sun night through 
Tue night. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave is crossing Central America in the the Pacific
waters, inducing fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are moderate or less, except rough in the Gulf of Papagayo. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in Papagayo will 
prevail through at least Tue night with moderate to rough seas. 
Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas may
impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sat evening
through late Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the
ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas across the discussion waters are
moderate or less. 

For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft north of 25N and east of 125W 
will subside today. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week several 
hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual 
development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form next week while the system moves generally west- 
northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring 
strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate 
open waters Sun through midweek.

$$
AL