008 
AXPZ20 KNHC 262124
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 22.7N 124.9W at 26/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft (5.5 m). 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to
between 75 nm and 210 nm in the NE quadrant only. Iselle is 
moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is 
expected to continue over the next few days. Steady weakening is 
expected, and Iselle is forecast to become a post- tropical 
remnant low by tonight. Swells generated by Iselle will continue 
to affect the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula for a 
couple more days. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Iselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central East Pacific (Invest EP93): A broad 1007 mb area of low 
pressure located well south of southwestern Mexico near 09N107W 
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that 
continues to gradually become better organized. Scattered to 
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted across an 
expansive area on both sides of the monsoon trough, from 02N to 
15N between 77W and 117W. Environmental conditions are expected 
to support gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while it 
moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of 
Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest 
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

Western East Pacific (Invest EP94): An elongated, 1009 mb broad 
area of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands near 10.5N135W is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 600 nm in the SE semicircle and 150 nm
in the NW semicircle of the low pressure center. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
week or early this weekend while the system drifts to the 
northeast, then turns westward. This system has a medium chance 
of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a 
high chance within the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest 
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: 
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is just east of the discussion waters
but approaching, along 77W, moving quickly westward around 20 
kt. Any nearby convection is described above with Invest EP93.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 88.5W north of 05N to 
across portions of El Salvador an the Yucatan Peninsula, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described above
with Invest EP93.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 08N88W to 10N100W to 1007 mb
low pressure, Invest EP93, near 09N107W to 14N118W, then resumes
southeast of Tropical Storm Iselle at 16N119W to 1009 broad low 
pressure, Invest EP94, near 10.5N135W to beyond 11N140W. Other 
than the convection mentioned above, isolated to widely scattered
moderate to strong is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 119W and 128W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
low pressure Invest EP93 near 09N107W with the high chance for
tropical cyclone formation.

Tropical Storm Iselle is well beyond the offshore waters of Baja
California. Outer associated swells of 7 to 8 ft are impacting
the far Baja California Norte waters near the outer offshore 
boundary. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue
to blow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas, except 
slight in the Gulf of California. Active showers and 
thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of
southern and southwestern Mexico as described with Invest EP93 in
the Special Features section above with locally higher winds and
seas possible there.

For the forecast, the area of low pressure, Invest EP93, which 
has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation, will move
west-northwest at 10 to 15 kt with the center forecast to stay
beyond the offshore waters. However, outer winds and seas are
forecast to impact portions of the outer offshore waters of
southwestern Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands late Thursday
through at least Sun night. Meanwhile, outer rough swells 
associated with Tropical Storm Iselle will continue to subside 
through tonight as the system continues to pull away from the 
offshore waters of Baja California while weakening. Fresh to 
strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at 
times. A surge of fresh to strong southeasterly winds likely 
associated with convective complexes may move up the central and 
northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights. Looking 
ahead, another area of low pressure could form this weekend well
to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for some gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression could form by early next week while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
well downwind to near 10N93W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate
seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern
Panama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the 
outer offshore waters areas from Colombia northward as described
above with Invest EP93 in the Special Features section, with 
locally higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue 
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the Sat night, then
moderate to fresh thereafter, with associated moderate to fresh 
winds extending well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El 
Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the 
monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be 
moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. 
Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information about 
Tropical Storm Iselle, low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance 
of tropical cyclone formation, and another broad area of low 
pressure, Invest EP94 in the far west-central waters, also with 
the potential for tropical cyclone formation. 

Otherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough hand west of 110W. South of the monsoon trough, mainly 
moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the open 
waters with very active convection present. Seas are mainly 
moderate, except rough near and south of 03N between 115W and 
135W in southwesterly swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will become post-tropical
and move to 23.2N 126.2W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low 
near 23.9N 127.9W Thu afternoon, 24.6N 129.6W Fri morning, 25.3N 
131.1W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. Other than the 
two remaining Special Features areas, Invest EP93 and Invest 
EP94, above, large southwesterly swell will impact the southern 
waters through Thu night before decaying. Looking ahead, much 
larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may impact the 
southern waters by early next week. Little change is forecast 
elsewhere away from the Special Features areas.

$$
Lewitsky