000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190017 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near
19.7N 124.0W at 18/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained 
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas remain around 24 
ft, or about 7 m. Elidas's satellite presentation has improved 
slightly since this morning. The satellite imagery depicts numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection in a wide band from 17N to 
19N between 122W and 124W and from 17N to 21N between 124W and 127W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted east-
southeast of Elida from 10N to 20N between 117W and 126W, and also 
well to its south from 05N to 11N between 126W and 133W. Elida is 
forecast to increase its forward speed through much of the weekend. 
An eventual turn to the north is forecast to occur by late Sun. The 
system is expected to begin weakening later tonight with that 
weakening trend forecast to continue over the next few days as the 
storm moves over cooler waters. Elida is likely to become a post- 
tropical cyclone on Mon. Swells generated by Elida will affect 
portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through 
the rest of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products 
from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Storm Warning Central and Western East Pacific (Invest EP97):
A broad 1008 mb area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern
Mexico near 11N107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is becoming better organized from 10N to 17N between 105W 
and 111W and also from 08N to 10N between 107W and 113W. Associated 
winds are currently 20 to 30 kt as depicted by a recent satellite 
scatterometer data pass. Seas with these winds are in the 7 to 9 ft 
range. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form tonight or on Sunday while it moves west- northwestward over 
the central portion of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical 
Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through the next 48 hours. Regardless of tropical cyclone 
formation, expect increasing winds and building seas to impact 
portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the 
Revillagigedo Islands during the rest of the weekend and into early 
next week, and a Storm Warning is now in effect beginning late Sun 
night into early Mon, with gale conditions possibly beginning 
sooner. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more 
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The previous describe tropical wave along 107W from 02N to 18N
has transitioned to the broad 1008 mb low pressure near 11N107W.
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details, 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low along the coast of
northwest Colombia southwestward across the Panama/Colombia border 
to 07N87W to 08N99W to low pressure, Invest EP97, near 11N107W and 
to 12N112W. It resumes to the southwest of Elida at 09N128W to 
08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 07N 
between 77W-83W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 83W-88W, 
and within 180 nm north of the trough between 87W-91W. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 12N between 
91W-101W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
07N to 11N between 137W-140W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Elida, centered about 812 nautical miles west of the southern 
tip of Baja California, and on a broad area of low pressure, Invest 
EP97, near 101107W, with the high potential for tropical cyclone 
formation.  Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and locally 
rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, rather broad 
high pressure is over these waters. Winds are moderate or weaker 
across the remainder of the waters under the ridge, except moderate 
to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California, and 
similar wind speeds near the SPECIAL FEATURES Invest EP97 low 
pressure area. Seas are moderate elsewhere away from Elida, except 
slight in the Gulf of California. Very active convection is present 
near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters southern 
and southwestern Mexico, with locally higher winds and seas possible 
near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, seas generated by Elida will continue to propagate 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Sun 
evening. Expect building seas of 7 to 11 ft, mainly across the outer 
forecast waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds 
and slight seas will prevail, except for locally fresh winds in the 
northern Gulf at times. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the next 
several days, with locally rough seas at times. Meanwhile, low 
pressure of 1008 mb near 11N107W has the potential for tropical 
cyclone formation. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect 
increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the waters 
well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands this 
weekend into early next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to near 09N92W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are 
near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo. 
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, 
and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas, primarily in south to southwest swell, dominate the remainder 
of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of 
the Galapagos Islands and near shore western Colombia. Very active 
convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the 
offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible near 
thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds and 
moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region 
through early next week, with moderate to fresh northeast winds 
pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are 
expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos 
Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Elida, centered about 812 nautical miles west of the southern 
tip of Baja California, and on a broad area of low pressure, Invest 
EP97, near 11N107W, with the high potential for tropical cyclone 
formation.

High pressure continues to dominate the majority of the forecast 
waters north of the monsoon trough and north and west of Elida. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to 
fresh north to northeast winds north of 15N and west of 120W, with 
moderate seas away from Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker 
elsewhere, except near the SPECIAL FEATURES low pressure area, 
Invest EP97, near 11N107W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell across 
the open waters away from Elida.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to near 21.0N 
124.6W late tonight, to near 23.0N 125.7W Sun afternoon, to near 
late Sun night, to near 27.6N 127.0W Mon afternoon, then become post-
tropical and move to 30.1N 127.3W Tue morning, and weaken to a 
remnant low north of the area near 32.9N 127.6W by Tue afternoon. 
Seas generated by Elida will continue to propagate across the 
forecast region, covering roughly the waters from 10N to 26N between 
113W and 133W this afternoon. Seas are mostly rough over some of the 
far south-central waters as southwesterly flow into Invest EP97 is 
appearing to become establised. These seas will gradually spread 
northward over the south-central waters as that occurs. Little 
change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the 
open waters going into the early part of the week.

$$
Aguirre