000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040238
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough is noted from 01S81W to 03S87W to 03S103W to 
00S113W. The ITCZ extends from 04N120W to beyond 01N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 03S between 
91W and 103W, and from 02N to 04N between 127W and 139W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 5 
to 7 ft seas. High pressure building SE toward Baja California 
along a surface trough over NW Mexico are causing fresh to 
locally NW winds offshore Baja California Norte near Punta 
Eugenia. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly
gentle winds. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico, with slight seas over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over NE Mexico and the equatorial trough will support strong gap 
winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec into early Wed, and moderate to 
fresh Wed night and Sat night. Winds may increase back to fresh 
to strong Sun night. High pressure will build further over the 
waters N of Punta Eugenia Wed, tightening the pressure gradient 
and supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas off 
Baja California. Rough to very rough seas will then persist there
into the weekend. Looking ahead, a cut-off low pressure area may
develop and linger near Baja California Norte by the end of the 
weekend into early next week which would weaken the pressure 
gradient and slightly improve marine conditions.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong gap winds are in the Papagayo region, with fresh gap 
winds ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03N.
Seas in these areas are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to
gentle with slight to moderate seas. Scattered moderate
convection is noted SW of the Galapagos Islands and near the 
coasts of Ecuador and Colombia. 

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in 
the Papagayo area into the weekend. Winds will increase to 30 kt 
tonight, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo
region to near 90W. Fresh N gap winds and moderate seas will 
likely pulse to locally strong tonight in the Gulf of Panama and 
just S of the Azuero Peninsula. Looking ahead, significant 
southerly swell with rough seas may approach the waters offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered just N of the region is dominating much 
of the waters N of 04N. This is leading to mainly moderate or 
weaker NE to E winds N of the Equator, along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the
area into late week, tightening the pressure gradient and 
increasing winds. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas
are expected over NW waters N of 05N and W of 115W starting late
Wed and continuing into the weekend. Looking ahead, a cut- off 
low pressure area may develop and linger near Baja California 
Norte by the end of the weekend into early next week which would 
weaken the pressure gradient and slightly improve marine 
conditions.

$$
Konarik