000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050359
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0325 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 114.8W at 05/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with
gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (10 M). Numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 15N to
22N and between 111W and 117W. A continued slow motion is 
expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are 
possible overnight, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken starting
Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the 
coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of 
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N85W to south of Mexico near 14N99W and then from 14N121W to
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted north of 05N and between 83W and 99W. Similar convection
is found from 05N to 12N and west of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.

Away from the direct influence of Hurricane Rachel, gentle to 
moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, 
prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas 
of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are still impacting the 
offshore waters of Baja California Sur, particularly between Cabo
San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are beginning to subside 
near the entrance to the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 115.9W Mon morning,
20.4N 117.4W Mon evening, 20.4N 118.9W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W
Tue evening, 21.1N 121.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical 
storm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed evening. Rachel will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 22.2N 125.8W late Thu. Seas will 
continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California 
tonight, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur on
Mon as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking
ahead, a broad area of low pressure is located just to the south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week 
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward,
just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico.
The chance of formation is low over the next 48 hours and high
over the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient dominate much of the basin north of the
equator, allowing for light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the 
offshore waters of Central America, especially west of Panama, 
producing gusty winds and higher seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area 
will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters 
of Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas
through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly
winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may
increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop
over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico.

Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure 
dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, 
supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. 

For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 115.9W Mon morning,
20.4N 117.4W Mon evening, 20.4N 118.9W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W
Tue evening, 21.1N 121.8W Wed morning, and weaken to a tropical 
storm near 21.6N 123.3W Wed evening. Rachel will change little in
intensity as it moves to the 22.2N 125.8W late Thu. Rachel will 
weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Rough
seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the 
forecast waters roughly from 15N to 25N between 110W and 120W on Mon.

$$
Delgado