000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf of America tonight 
and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by 
Thu morning. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the 
front allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will 
rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and 
accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon. Rough seas are
expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough
to 19 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning,
then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage 
through Sat morning. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 01.5N87W to 00N101W. The
ITCZ is analyzed from 00N101W to 01S122W and beyond 01N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08S to 05N between 
82W and 103W. Similar convection is depicted from 01.5N to 04N
between 128W and 134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for further information on a
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad surface ridge extends SE from a 1032 mb high NW of the 
region and covers the offshore waters of Baja California as well 
as the SW Mexican offshores to Jalisco. The gradient of pressure 
between low pressure over NE Mexico and the ridge is supporting 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the offshores S of Punta 
Eugenia and the southern Gulf of California, and fresh to locally 
strong NW winds offshore Jalisco, Mexico. Seas offshore Jalisco
are around 8 ft while 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of
America in the wake of a cold front, allowing strong winds to 
funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu 
morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds 
later in the morning and accelerate to gale speed early in the 
afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu 
morning, becoming very rough to 19 ft by Thu evening. Gales will
prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in
speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will 
continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes
through Thu, while new NW swell spreads across the waters of 
Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected
between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, including Las 
Tres Marias, through this evening. NW to N winds will then 
freshen inside the Gulf of California this afternoon, reaching
fresh to strong speed through the night. Winds will decrease 
Thu morning as the ridge weakens modestly across the area. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate to rough seas are
ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending downwind to 
approximately 90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate 
seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 03.5N. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW 
swell.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high 
pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse 
to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to 
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 
New cross-equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the 
Galapagos offshore waters Sat and subside Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb remains well NW of the region. An 
associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 10N and W of
110W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds from 02N to 21N west of 105W, except fresh 
to strong from 07N to 19N between 130W and 137W. Altimeter data 
show rough seas in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds. N to 
NW swell is entering the high seas west of the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters, thus affecting the region N of 29N 
between 120W and 127W with rough seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds 
are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed N and S swell.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of Baja California will extend
a ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical
waters. The NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is
forecast to subside Thu night. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial
SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters 
Sat and subside by Sun evening.

$$
KRV