261 
AXPZ20 KNHC 071425
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave that was analyzed along 85W has been relocated to 
79.5W to the north of 04N. Any nearby convection is described in 
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 128W from 02N to 17N, moving 
westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described in 
the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N76W to 06N90W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N90W to 07N125W, then resumes W of a tropical wave
from 08N129W to 09N138W. Scattered moderate convection is 
active from 04N to 07N between 77W and 81W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 10N between 93W
and 113W, from 03N to 17N between 113W and 127W, and from 02N to
12N between 127W and 140W. Scattered moderate is also observed
offshore southern and SW Mexico from 11N to 16N between 95W and
103W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the waters W of 113W. Surface troughing is
found along the eastern shore of Baja California. This pressure
pattern supports moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California
mainly from Punta Eugenia northward. Moderate to fresh SE winds
are found in the northern Gulf of California. A small plume of
fresh to strong gap winds is found in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft
across the offshore waters in S to SW swell, except mixed with NW
swell offshore Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of
California N of the entrance. Active convection is present
offshore southern and SW Mexico as described above.

For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California
through mid week, with lower pressure inland over northwest 
Mexico. This pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong NW
winds off Baja California Norte through Wed night, with rough 
seas in NW swell near Guadalupe Island. These winds will diminish
Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower 
Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S 
winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week. Looking ahead, lowering 
pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to
strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore southern Mexico
by the weekend. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A wide plume of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persist across
the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W, where seas 
are 7-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to 
the N of 08N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of
Panama downwind to near 04N82W. Moderate SE winds are across the
offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-9 ft 
in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of 
the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu along with rough seas, 
then moderate to fresh winds thereafter. Cross equatorial SW 
swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands through Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The 
combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas 
associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a 
peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America through 
Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere, with locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of
Panama tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 135W from 20N to 30N.
Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 17N, 
supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW
swell. Fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft are also noted farther 
S ahead of the tropical wave near 128W, specifically from 10N to
20N between 125W and 135W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are ongoing near a surface trough along 138W along with fresh to
strong winds within 90 nm of the trough. Rough seas are likely 
accompanying the strong winds. Gentle to moderate breezes are 
noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 12N 
between 90W and 130W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will follow the
trough near 138W as it moves W of 140W tonight. Strong winds and
rough seas will also accompany the tropical wave near 128W at it
moves westward at 20 to 25 kt through 135W by Wed night and past
140W by late Fri. Farther north, swell of 8-9 ft will persist 
north of 25N east of 125W through Fri. Farther south, large swell
to 7-8 ft will persist south of 01N between 95W and 120W through
Fri.

$$
Lewitsky