949 
AXPZ20 KNHC 040850
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.2W at 04/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with
gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of 
center. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and 
A turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed is 
expected during the next 72 h. Rachel is forecast to start a 
gradual weakening trend in the next 12 hours or so. Swells 
generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west- 
central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California 
Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N91W to 14N100W, 
then resumes near 13N118W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between
86W and 90W, from 00N to 16N between 90W and 105W, and from 00N
to 10N between 128W and 138W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
Hurricane Rachel.

Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle
moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, 
prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas 
of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance
to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja 
California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico 
west of 105W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.2N 113.2W at 2 AM 
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 968 mb. Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this 
afternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 
20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N 
121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 
21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to
propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least 
Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of 
California, including the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. 
Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec 
region through tonight, then winds and seas may increase early 
this week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of
the southern coast of Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail 
across the region. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will
maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along
with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and
seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El
Salvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to 
form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern 
coast of Mexico.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Rachel.

Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast
waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting
gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough 
seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 09N to 27N 
between 105W and 121W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this 
afternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 
20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N 
121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 
21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will 
continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N
to 27N between 105W and 123W the remainder of the weekend before
starting to shift westward along with the system.

$$
AL