000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040925
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0905 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts 
to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 19N to 22N and west of 137W. A 
general WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of 
days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, 
although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next 
day or two.

Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.9N 117.1W at 04/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts 
to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present from 15N to 23N between 111W and 120W. 
A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected within the next 
couple of days. Some strengthening is possible today, but a slow 
weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday. Swells generated 
by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest 
Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and 
are expected to spread northward to Southern California through the 
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
 
A tropical wave is along 98W, extending from southern Mexico to 
02N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed near the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast
of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N93W and to 09N109W and then from
13N121W to 13N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and east of 115W. 
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 
15N and west of 113W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas 
are affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly
impacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this 
hurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and 
central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 118.1W this 
afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat afternoon, 
22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon, and weaken 
to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. Marie will 
change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 125.8W early 
Tue. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S 
to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through tonight. Looking
ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may 
occur by the middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure located north of the islands extends southward 
into Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly 
trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters.
Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are 
occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4
ft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters
of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas
are expected near these storms.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central 
America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into
early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong
gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds 
are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will 
prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about 
Hurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane 
Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico.

Away from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate 
or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical
eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.4N 139.3W at 2 AM
PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central 
pressure is 972 mb. Karina will move into the Central Pacific 
late this morning or early afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near
19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. 
Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the 
minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 
118.1W this afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat
afternoon, 22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon,
and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. 
Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 
125.8W early Tue.

Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of
southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is 
possible, and the system could become a tropical depression 
around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This 
system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 
days. 

$$
Delgado