000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.3N 118.8W at 21/1500 UTC, 
moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 
kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong 
convection is occurring from 14N to 16N between 118W and 120W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
from 11N to 17N between 113W and 123W. Fausto is moving toward 
the northwest, and that general motion should continue today. A 
turn toward the west-northwest, accompanied by an increase in 
forward speed, is expected tonight and Wednesday. Strengthening 
is expected to resume later today and continue through Wednesday.
Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast 
of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for a 
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from 
your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N95W to 10N110W, 
where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 13N125W 
to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
04N to 10N between 83W and 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 640 nm southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California.

Fresh to strong SE winds with seas of 9 to 12 ft, and scattered 
moderate convection is occurring in the offshore zone of the 
Revillagigedo Islands as Fausto passes SW of Clarion Island. 
Elsewhere, a very weak and narrow ridge extends across the 
offshore waters between Fausto and Mexico, yielding moderate or 
weaker winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell over the 
remainder of the Pacific offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of 
California, recent satellite altimeter data showed gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds, with a few areas of locally fresh 
westerly gap winds. Seas are estimated at 2 to 4 ft except to 5 
ft across the entrance. 

For the forecast, high pressure will begin to build in across the
Baja offshore waters Wed and Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW
winds with isolated areas of strong winds during the afternoon
and evening hours. Moderate to large SW swell will impact the 
Mexican offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes tonight through 
Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to 
develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the 
system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern 
and central portions of the eastern Pacific.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong Ne to E winds prevail across the Papagayo
region and extend offshore to 91W and northward into the NW 
Nicaragua waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate
or weaker with seas 4-5 ft in S swell.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across
the Papagayo region through Fri morning before diminishing over 
the weekend. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are expected through
Sunday.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto, centered about 640 NM southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California.

Fausto and the remnants of Elida dominate conditions over the 
High Seas forecast waters tonight. Away from these two systems, 
the only winds that are fresh are south of the equator west of 
110W, and are accompanied by 8 to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds 
are moderate or weaker and seas are 5 to 8 ft in mixed seas.

For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 16.8N 119.9W this 
evening, 17.2N 121.5W Wed morning, 17.5N 123.3W Wed evening, 17.8N 
125.4W Thu morning, 18.2N 127.9W Thu evening, and 18.6N 130.7W Fri 
morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to near 
19.5N 135.8W early Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure 
is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of 
days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of 
the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and 
central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather 
Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation through 7 days. 

$$
GR