000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100238
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 12.4N 88.2W at 10/0300
UTC, moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4.0 m. Scattered
to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted 
from 09N to 15N between 86W and 93W. Cristina is moving slowly 
toward the west. A turn to the west-northwest and northwest is 
forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, 
Cristina should move near or along the coasts of Nicaragua, 
Honduras, and El Salvador through midweek. Slight strengthening 
is possible through Wednesday, with weakening expected Wednesday 
night or Thu after Cristina moves inland. Heavy rainfall
associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will impact coastal 
portions of Central America through Thu. This rainfall may 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Cristina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across Panama
at 08N77W to NW Costa Rica at 10.5N86W, then resumes W of
Tropical Storm Cristina SW of Guatemala at 13N92W to 09N124W. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N124W to 10N138W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 83W 
and 86W, from 07N to 12N between 93W and 104W, and from 12N to 
16N between 95W and 104W, from 05N to 09N between 129W and 133W, 
from 10.5N to 12N between 135W and 137.5W, and from 03N to 06.5N 
between 138W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris dissipated during the afternoon hours 
across the interior of western Guerrero, Mexico. Scattered 
showers continue across much of the interior highlands of the 
area. Ridging extends from NW of the area to SE to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Broad low pressure extends from southern 
California SSE into Baja California Norte. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California
Norte. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are noted from 19.5N to 23N
to the E of 110.5W, locally strong off Cabo San Lucas. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the offshore waters of
Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are 7-10 ft in
mixed S and NW swells off Baja California, and 7-11 ft in mainly
S-SW swell E of 110W. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or
less, except 4-7 ft near the entrance in the southerly swell.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending into the 
waters W of the Revillagigedo Islands will weaken and shift
westward Wed through the upcoming weekend, as broad low pressure
along the coast of southern California drifts westward. This 
will lead to light to gentle winds across the waters of Baja 
California, and moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds inside 
the Gulf of California. Afternoon and evening winds will pulse 
moderate to locally fresh near the coast Fri through the weekend.
Northerly swell will merge with strong S swell moving through 
the Baja waters this afternoon through Wed to maintain rough seas
before subsiding. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds will 
dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec 
through Fri, then weaken into the weekend. Large cross-
equatorial S-SW swell dominating those waters will gradually 
subside tonight through Wed, while mixed swells off Baja Norte to
rough linger through Thu.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical 
Storm Cristina, just offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca. Active
nearby convection is described above.

Moderate to fresh winds surround Cristina from roughly 09N to 
14N between 86W and 93W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the 
remainder of the waters, locally moderate to fresh out of the SE 
near the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 7-11 ft N of the Equator, 
and 6-8 ft S of the Equator across those waters from Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cristina will move to 12.4N 
88.4W Wed morning, 12.8N 88.9W Wed evening, 13.7N 89.3W Thu 
morning, weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near 15.0N 89.8W Thu 
evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Heavy rainfall is expected 
across coastal portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador and may 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in 
areas of steep terrain. Otherwise, large cross-equatorial S-SW 
swell will continue to impact the regional tonight through Wed 
before subsiding, resulting in large and powerful surf along the 
coasts. Refer to your local meteorological information for more 
details on the surf zone and beach impacts. Gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters 
Thu into the weekend, except locally rough seas in new southerly 
swell near the Galapagos Islands Thu and Thu night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Amanda is analyzed W of
140W near 10.5N141W. Ridging extends from NW to SE from 30N139W
to near 16N113W. This pressure pattern is supporting moderate to
fresh trades from 11N to 27N W of 125W, and from 25N to 30N 
between 118W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere
across the open waters, except moderate to locally fresh between
90W and 105W. For seas, mixed northerly and southerly swell
supports 7-10 ft seas N of 20N and E of 128W. Southerly swells
combined with trade winds supports 6-9 ft seas from 10N to 22N.
Decaying long-period cross-equatorial S-SW swell supports seas of
7-10 ft N of 04N and E of 115W. Seas of 5-7 ft cover the
remainder of the open waters in mixed swells.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will continue
to dominate the waters N of 10N and W of 115W or 120W under the 
broad ridge through Wed, then will weaken as the high begins to 
shift NE through the end of the week. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere through tonight through Wed. Meanwhile, 
northerly swell in the N-central waters will produce seas of 7-10
ft for the next several days, merging with large cross- 
equatorial southerly swell. That cross-equatorial swell will
rough seas N of 04N and E of 115W will decay tonight through
early Wed. New southerly swell will build seas back to locally
rough S of 08N and E of 125W Thu into early Fri before decaying.
Moderate seas will dominate the open waters by the end of the 
week into the upcoming weekend.
 
$$
Lewitsky