000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120421 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026

CORRECTED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of 
the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the early or middle 
portions of next week while the system moves generally WNW well off 
the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this 
system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 
hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest 
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website -https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W, and extends northward 
across southern Mexico moving westward at around 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 
17N between 85W and 100W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 130W from 07N to 17N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 127W and 131W.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N83W to 07N110W to 
10N124W to 06N140W. The ITCZ stretches westward beyond 06N140W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N
to 10N E of 86W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N to 16N between 115W and 120W, and from 
03N to 10N between 100W and 108W, and from 05N to 16N between
116W and 123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting light to gentle winds, also in the Gulf of
California. Seas are slight to moderate across the Baja offshores
and slight along the Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. Over the 
SW Mexican offshores, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW
and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California through the middle of next 
week producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with 
moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle 
to moderate winds and mainly slight seas will prevail during this
period. Similarly, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist 
in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Otherwise, a broad 
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico has the potential for gradual 
development into a tropical depression during the early or middle
portions of next week while the system moves generally WNW well 
off the coast of Mexico. Regarless of development, this system is
likely to bring fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough 
seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late Sun 
into Sun night.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region. 
Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail 
elsewhere. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and 
thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters from Colombia 
to Guatemala. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through Thu night along with moderate to rough 
seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas may impact the
waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sun through Mon night 
as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles 
south of the SW coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the 
lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge prevails across the waters N of 18N W of 110W. Under the
influence of the ridge, light to gentle winds are noted N of 20N
and E of 130W while gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the 
waters N of 10N W of 130W. A couple of tropical waves are moving 
westward across the waters S of 20N. A surface trough is analyzed
from 17N114W to 06N119W. Scattered moderate convection is near 
the trough axis, which is well defined. Moderate or weaker winds
are elsewhere along with moderate seas. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing 
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the 
early or middle portions of next week while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. The 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a 
high chance through 7 days.

$$
Ramos