000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251522
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fausto is centered near 19.1N 136.4W at 25/1500 UTC,
moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
Seas of 12 ft or higher from 14N to 24N and W of 131W, with
maximum seas of 34 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection 
prevails from 17N to 21N between 133W and 138W. Surf generated by
Fausto is expected to begin building across east-facing shores 
of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward 
Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday 
as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. Fausto will continue moving W over the next few days,
with center moving W of 140W by Sun night.

Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 10.8N 104.3W at
25/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 05N to 15N between 99W and 110W. Seas of 12 ft or higher are
from 09N to 12N between 101W and 105W, with maximum seas of 20
ft. Swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting 
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico starting this weekend 
and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California 
Peninsula on Monday. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult 
products from your local weather office. Rapid intensification 
is forecast during the next couple of days. Genevieve is forecast
to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane by 
Monday.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 88W 
north of 03N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm on either side of
the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends extends from western Colombia to
09N84W to 07N94W, then resumes southwest of T.S. Genevieve at 
09N106W and continues to 08N113W. The ITCZ extends from 08N113W 
to 08N124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm on
either side of the boundaries. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters 
west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and 
relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting 
moderate to fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west 
of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to 
moderate northwest winds south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas over 
these waters are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable
winds are over waters southeast of Baja California to near 16N 
along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Fresh 
to strong east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery
of T.S. Genevieve are present south of 16N along with seas 8 to 
11 ft in southeast to south swell.

For the forecast, Genevieve will strengthen to a hurricane near 
11.8N 106.2W this evening, move to 12.9N 108.3W Sun morning, 
14.2N 110.2W Sun evening, 15.5N 112.0W Mon morning, 16.6N 113.6W 
Mon evening, and 17.6N 115.2W Tue morning. Genevieve will change 
little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 118.5W by early Wed.
As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja California
Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high 
pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of 
Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will impact just 
about all of the offshore waters outside the Gulf of California, 
except for its entrance through next week building seas over 
these waters to 12 ft and greater.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo 
region and extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to
southern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most 
of the offshore waters north of Costa Rica. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds 
will pulse across the Papagayo region well into next week.
Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Gentle to 
moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama into 
early next week with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected 
elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands 
and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. 
The southwest swell will subside around midweek. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Fausto and on T.S. Genevieve.

Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of
the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate 
circulation of Fausto extend northward to 25N, with seas to 8 ft 
reaching as far north of Fausto as 28N. Elsewhere, high pressure
dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and 
also north of 15N west of about 120W. Moderate or weaker winds 
with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will continue to 
build seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W starting this 
morning.

A surface trough is along 125W from 03N to 12N. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 123W and 129W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 19.5N 138.1W 
this evening, 19.9N 140.5W Sun morning, 20.3N 142.9W Sun evening,
20.7N 145.6W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 
148.5W Mon evening, and 21.6N 151.2W Tue morning. Fausto will 
change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 156.1W by early 
Wed. Genevieve will strengthen to a hurricane near 11.8N
106.2W this evening, move to 12.9N 108.3W Sun morning, 14.2N
110.2W Sun evening, 15.5N 112.0W Mon morning, 16.6N 113.6W Mon
evening, and 17.6N 115.2W Tue morning. Genevieve will change
little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 118.5W by early Wed.
As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california
Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high 
pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of 
Baja California Norte. 

The cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will gradually 
build seas to 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the south-central;
waters south of about 03N and between 94W and 128W going into
the early part of the week.

$$
ERA