000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 89W north of 05N to inland Honduras
and Belize. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the 
wave and where the wave crosses the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave has its axis along 97W north of 08N to inland 
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous
to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to near 106W 
from 10N to 15N.

A tropical wave has its axis along 115W from 08N to 19N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave 
has diminished during the past few hours. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen west of this wave to near 
118W from 11N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is east of
the wave to near 108W from 12N to 17N. Scatterometer satellite 
data has fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of this 
wave to near 110W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 22N132W to 17N135W and to 
12N136W. A weak 1012 mb low is along the axis near 20N as
observed on satellite imagery. These features are moving 
westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb in 
northwest Colombia, west-southwestward through central Panama 
and west-northwestward through southern Costa Rica. From there 
it reaches the coast at 09N84W and continues to 07N96W, then 
northwestward to 12N114W and southwestward to 08N120W and to 
06N125W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N132W and 
to beyond 06N140W. Numerous to isolated strong convection 
is from 02N to 07N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 104W-111W, also 
within 180 nm south of the trough between 116W-121W, and 
within 120 nm north of the trough between 91W-97W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough and 
the ITCZ between 123W-128W, and within 60 nm south of the trough
between 98W-100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf 
of America and lower pressure from southeastern Mexico southward
to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting 
fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 
8 to 9 ft have been churned up by these winds. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over 
the northern portion east of 114W due to a tighter gradient 
there between the thermal trough and somewhat relatively higher 
pressure in western Mexico. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf, 
except for 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters along with 
seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through 
late Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican 
offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Large 
northwest swell is expected to move into the far northern waters
off Baja California Norte beginning early on Mon, and perhaps 
linger into Tue afternoon.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Latest 
scatterometer satellite data shows seas of 8 to 9 ft downstream 
of these winds, namely from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. 
Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in 
long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters, as
detected by multiple altimeter satellite data passes, and 5 to 
6 ft in southwest swell over the remainder of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure
north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the tropics 
will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the 
Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may spread
as far west as 105W through Sun night before diminishing. 
Farther south, large southerly swell moving into the equatorial 
waters will continue through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak 1012 mb low is centered on the western most tropical wave
near 20N133W. Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail north of 
the low to 23N and between 130W and 140W. Seas with these winds 
are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the remainder 
of the area north of 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon 
trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds from 
10N to 28N west of 126W, and from 11N to 21N between 115W and 
126W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are 120 nm north
and northeast of the low due to a tight pressure gradient between 
the low and high pressure to the north. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over 
these waters, except for higher seas 6 to 9 ft from 15N to 20N 
west of 130W due to the combination of long-period north to 
northeast swell with trade wind generated waves. Elsewhere, winds
across the open Pacific waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are 
6 to 8 ft in mixed north and southwest swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 115W is forecast to 
undergo possible gradual development during the next few days
and a tropical depression could form around the middle of next 
week while the wave moves generally westward to west-northwestward.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive 
for development by the second half of the week as the system 
moves over the western portion of the eastern North Pacific.
Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for 
the next several days. Large southerly swell moving through far 
south-central waters is expected to begin to decay during the 
early part of the upcoming week.

$$
Aguirre