000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160404
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia
southwestward and westward across the southwestern Caribbean,
and continues to across the central portion of Costa Rica and 
to 10N85W, then southwestward to 05N93W and to 07N104W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N120W and to beyond 06N140W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south 
of the ITCZ between 132W-135W, also within 120 nm south of
the ITCZ between 135W-140W, and within 120 nm north of the 
ITCZ between 132W-137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 120 nm northwest of the trough between
91W-95W, and to the southeast of the same trough from 04N to 06N
between 83W-89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a broad area of high pressure 
west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure associated
to the thermal trough over Baja California is generally sustaining
mostly fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja 
California. A set of large northwest swell is just starting 
to cross 30N between 118W and 125W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north
of Punta Eugenia and 5 to 7 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San
Lazaro.

In the Gulf of California, the gradient there is maintaining
moderate west to northwest, except for moderate south to
southwest winds in the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas are 
3 to 4 ft in the Gulf, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in 
long-period southwest swell at the entrance to the gulf.
 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over the far western
offshore waters of Oaxaca.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west gap winds 
in the northern and central Gulf of California are expected to 
pulse to fresh to strong speeds Sat night and to strong to near 
gale-force Sun night. Mostly fresh northwest winds over the 
offshore waters of Baja California will continue through Mon 
morning, except increase to fresh to strong speeds west of Baja 
California Norte Sat night into Sun due to a tightening of the 
pressure gradient as strong high pressure north of the area 
shifts eastward. Large northwest swell will induce rough to very 
rough seas offshore Baja California Norte through Mon night, and 
rough seas offshore Baja California Sur Sat through Tue.
 
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh northeast to east
winds just northwest of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas with 
these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Ascat satellite data passes indicate
mostly light to gentle south to southwest winds south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are over this part of the area 3 to 5 ft in 
long-period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse during 
the night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through the 
period. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh 
north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama 
tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next 
week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected 
over the offshore waters of Colombia, and mostly over the outer 
offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough near 12N118W is generating scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection well southwest of the Revillagigedo
Islands from 06N to 10N between 115W and 120W. A broad ridge 
stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well 
west of northern California across 30N130W to just southeast of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature controls the wind regime 
north of the ITCZ, with moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds west of 122W, and mostly moderate north to northeast 
winds east of 122W. Seas north of the ITCZ range from 6 to 8 ft 
in mixed swell. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell 
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
shift eastward through late Sat leading to a tightening of the 
pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and
130W. This will bring fresh to strong northwest to north winds 
for this area during the weekend. Associated long-period, large
north swell will build seas there to between 12 and 16 ft. The 
high is forecast to shift back westward while weakening early 
next week, which should allow these winds to diminish to between 
moderate and fresh. The large north swell will begin to slowly 
subside from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California 
dropping below 12 ft.

$$
Aguirre