481 
AXPZ20 KNHC 221540
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri May 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77.5W to 05N80W to 10N86W to 
06.5N95W to 10N103W to 09.5N119W to 06N130W. The ITCZ extends 
from 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 79W and 103W, from 
04N to 09N between 114W and 125W, and from 08N to 10N between
131W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere 
from 05N to 14.5N between 105W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient continues over the regional waters as 
the NE Pacific ridge extends eastward to about 120W. Early 
morning satellite scatterometer winds showed light to gentle NW 
to N winds across most of the Baja offshore waters, and moderate 
to fresh NW winds near the coast of Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas.
Seas across the Baja waters are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, except to 
7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe and near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. 
Satellite scatterometer winds also showed a few plumes of 
moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across portions of the 
southern Gulf of California, while moderate SW to S winds 
prevail across northern portions. Seas in the Gulf are generally 
3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the area of fresh westerly gap 
winds in the south. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the 
remaining Mexican offshore waters to Tehuantepec, where seas are 
4 to 5 ft. Middle-level troughing south through southwest of 
Tehuantepec continues to support scattered active convection 
offshore of Tehuantepec between 12.5N and 15N. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate Sat, 
leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate 
to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and 
nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of 
California through early Sat. High pressure will build modestly 
across the region from the W Sun through early next week. This 
will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to 
locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight 
increase in seas. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate E to SE gap winds have developed across the 
Papagayo region and coastal waters of Nicaragua in recent hours.
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf
of Panama, while further south, overnight satellite scatterometer
wind data showed gentle to moderate southerly winds to the south
of 06N, extending to between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft in S
swell between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 4-5 ft 
elsewhere. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are
drifting NW across the near and offshore waters of western Panama
and Costa Rica. 

For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each 
night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the 
weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 
90W through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure
centered well N of the Hawaiian Islands, to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the 
monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the 
ITCZ and west of 135W, with mostly moderate winds elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate winds are found S
of 01N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion
waters. Seas over the discussion waters are in the 5-7 ft range
in mixed SW and N to NE swell, except locally reaching 8 ft N of
05N to 13N and W of 128W. Seas are also reaching near 8 ft along
the equator to the W of 115W as SW swell continue to move through
the area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually 
weaken while shifting southwestward through Sat. This will 
loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of 
the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with
seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change 
is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is 
expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 
100W and 120W through Sat.

$$
Stripling