000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 16.4N 118.8W at 29/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N 
between 118W and 122W. Similar convective activity is seen in a 
band to the E of center from 11N to 16N between 114W and 117W. 
Karina is moving toward the west-northwest, followed by a more 
westerly motion over the next day or two. Karina is just below 
hurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during the next 
several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane within the
next day and could become a major hurricane early next week. 
Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the 
coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this 
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 137.1W at 29/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with
gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm
W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A 
westward motion should resume during the next few hours and 
continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is 
expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane
by Monday or Monday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is
located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in the next several of days. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high
chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 101.5W from 04N to 15N, 
moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 95W AND 
107W. Recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong E to SE
on the E side of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 99W and
101.5W. Seas are moderate with these winds.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 18N104W, and
W of 11N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell 
and the tropical wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is
observed from 04N to 09N between 80W and 84W. This convective
activity is affecting parts of western Panama and southern Costa
Rica.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Tropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the
potential of tropical cyclone formation.

While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican 
offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to 
very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are 
reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated
with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the 
islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across 
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally 
moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of 
California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 16.9N 120.4W Sun morning, move to 17.4N 122.0W 
Sun afternoon, 17.7N 123.7W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.3W Mon 
afternoon, 18.3N 126.8W Tue morning, and 19.0N 128.8W Tue 
afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 
near 20.4N 131.5W Wed afternoon. The strong to near-gale force 
SE winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast 
periphery of Karina will continue to impact the waters around 
Clarion Island into Sun, then diminish through Mon as Karina 
continues to move away from the area. Fresh to strong northerly 
gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of 
California through Sun night into Mon. Locally stronger winds may
occur. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into 
early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated 
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer 
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may
freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next
week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly 
moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon 
trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area 
of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone 
formation.

A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone
Iselle, extends from 27N133W to 21N134W. Fresh to strong NE winds
and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the
trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 129W. Elsewhere, mainly 
moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open 
waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the 
two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas 
generated by Karina cover the waters from 09N to 20N between 111W
and 122W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the 
open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 16.9N 120.4W Sun morning, move to 17.4N 122.0W 
Sun afternoon, 17.7N 123.7W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.3W Mon 
afternoon, 18.3N 126.8W Tue morning, and 19.0N 128.8W Tue 
afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 
near 20.4N 131.5W Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move 
to 13.2N 138.6W Sun morning, 13.1N 140.9W Sun afternoon, 13.1N 
142.8W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 144.5W 
Mon afternoon, 13.3N 146.2W Tue morning, and 13.4N 147.6W Tue 
afternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to 
near 13.8N 150.0W Wed afternoon. Seas 8 ft or greater generated
by Karina will cover a large area by Sun afternoon, particularly
from 08N to 28N between 110W and 130W. 

$$
GR