000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf of America tonight 
and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by 
Thu morning. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the 
front allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will 
rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and 
accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon. Rough seas are
expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough
to 17 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning,
then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage 
through Sat morning. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77.5W to 02N89W to 03S102W. The
ITCZ is analyzed from 03S102W to 00N124W and beyond 01N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08S to 05N between 
87W and 103W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for further information on a
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad surface ridge extends SE from a 1034 mb high NW of the 
region and covers the offshore waters of Baja California as well 
as the SW Mexican offshores to Jalisco. According to the latest 
observations based on satellite derived winds, moderate to fresh
NW to N winds prevail across the offshore south of Punta Eugenia
and the southern Gulf of California, and fresh to locally strong
NW winds prevail offshore Jalisco, Mexico. These winds are due 
to the pressure gradient between the low pressure over NE Mexico 
and the aforementioned ridge. Seas offshore Jalisco are around 8 
ft, while 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of
America in the wake of a cold front, allowing strong winds to 
funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu 
morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds 
later in the morning and accelerate to gale speed early in the 
afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu 
morning, becoming very rough to 17 ft by Thu evening. Gales will
prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in
speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will 
continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes
through Thu, while new NW swell spreads across the waters of 
Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected
between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, including Las 
Tres Marias, through this evening. Northwest to north winds will
then freshen inside the Gulf of California this afternoon, 
reaching fresh to strong speed through the night. Winds will 
decrease Thu morning as the ridge weakens modestly across the 
area. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate to rough seas are
ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending downwind to 
approximately 92W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 
moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to
03N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in 
SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to 
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high 
pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse 
to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to 
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. 
New cross-equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the 
Galapagos offshore waters Sat and subside Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1034 mb remains well NW of the region. An 
associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 12N and W of
108W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to 
fresh NE to E winds from 02N to 21N west of 110W, except fresh 
to strong from 07N to 19N between 116W and 134W. Altimeter data 
show rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range within these winds.
Northwest swell is entering the high seas west of the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters, thus affecting the region N of 
27N between 120W and 134W with rough seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, 
winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed N and S 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure NW of Baja California will extend
a ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical
waters. The NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is
forecast to subside Thu night. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial
SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters 
Fri late afternoon and subside by Sun evening.

$$
KRV