000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070403
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 07 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 03N96W to 01N102W to 
01N112W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N130W and to 
beyond the area at 03N140W. A second trough extends from 
01S120W to 03.4S113W to 03.4S108W to 02S103W to 01S99W and 
to 03.4S92W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to
10N between 128W-140W, and within 120 nm south of the second 
trough between 97W-99W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb is centered well to the NW of 
the area near 38N137W. A broad ridge extends southeastward from 
the high to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and a meandering surface trough over 
the Gulf of California extending to NW Mexico is producing 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore the Baja California 
waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds, except for higher 
seas of 7 to 11 ft in NW swell over the outer offshore waters N 
of Cabo San Lazaro and lower seas of 5 to 7 ft over the waters
from Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW winds are over the 
north and central Gulf of California, with gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere, including the entrance to the Gulf. Slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore 
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, generally light winds
and moderate seas in S to SW swell are present.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to 
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through 
Sat morning generally supporting gentle o moderate NW to N 
winds. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form just 
offshore Baja California Norte on Sat, then shift slowly eastward
into early next week while dissipating. The tightening pressure 
gradient between the low center and the ridge to the W will 
promote fresh to locally strong W to NW winds and building seas 
to around 8 ft across the outer forecast waters N of Punta 
Eugenia on Sun. Gentle winds along with moderate seas in SW swell
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast 
period. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region while gentle to moderate N winds are 
in the Gulf of Panama. Seas of 2 to 4 ft within this area. The
latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal mostly light
to gentle winds elsewhere. Latest altimeter satellite data 
passes reveal seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the 
Papagayo region nightly and into the mornings through Tue as high
pressure remains N of the region. Gentle to locally moderate N 
winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama into next week. Mainly 
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through early next 
week. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell is 
expected to reach the offshore waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands early next week, building seas to around 8 ft, 
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb is centered well to the NW of 
the region near 38N137W. Associated broad ridging covers the 
waters N of about 15N and W of 112W. The related gradient is 
sustaining fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 25N between 130W 
and 132W as seen in the latest scatterometer satellite data 
passes over that part of the area. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with 
these winds, with the highest of the seas N of 28N between 121W 
and 128W. A couple of altimeter satellite data passes indicated 
such seas. Fresh to strong NE to E trades are confined to the 
western part of the area from 18N to 25N W of 130W. Seas with 
these winds are peaking to near 11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are of 
moderate or weaker speeds. Seas across the remainder of the open
waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell, except for higher seas of 6
to 9 ft in NE swell elsewhere from 07N to 30N W of 130W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will 
continue to dominate the waters the majority of the western and 
central waters N of 15N and W of 112W through the weekend while
it weakens some as a cold front approaches from the NW, but 
staying N of 30N. Trades over the western half of the area will 
weaken to mostly fresh speeds during this time, and the NE swell 
will slowly decay allowing for the seas there to subside to 8 ft 
by early Sun evening.

$$
Aguirre