000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242101
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure area west of Clarion Island (EP94):
1007 mb low pressure is centered near 18N117.5W or about 160 NM
west of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is active within 60 NM of the
center. Peak winds with the low are near 25 kt with highest seas
of 7 ft. A tropical depression could still form today while
environmental conditions remain marginally conducive. However,
this system is moving quickly toward cooler waters, and by
Thursday it should encounter these unfavorable conditions, ending
development chances. There is a medium...40 percent...chance of 
tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, south of 16N, moving 
west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, south of 17N, moving 
westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is active from 08N-16N between 103W-112W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, south of 20N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. An area of low pressure, Invest EP94, 
is along this tropical wave near 18N117.5W. Please see the 
Special Features section above for more information on this low 
pressure system.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W
to 11N107W to 08N134W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 08N-16N 
between 103W-112W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from
03N-06N between 84W-89W as well as from 05N-15N between 
113W-121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this afternoon with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds 
are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for 
Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Numerous 
moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 
08N-15N between 93W-103W.

For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will be 
inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the 
Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. 

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with
seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of
4-7 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting
a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to 
E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should
remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial 
waters tonight will continue through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information 
on Invest EP94.

Winds are SE to E fresh to strong with seas to 7 ft west
near 20N120W in association with Invest EP94. A surface ridge 
extends from a 1033 mb high at 38N144W east-southeastward to 
30N127W to 25N115W. The moderate pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing 
only moderate to locally fresh trades. The remainder of the 
winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 
5-8 ft in mixed N and S to SW swell. For convection, see sections
above about tropical waves and the ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is
likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central 
portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 
kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 
48 hours, but is medium...60 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere,
large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across 
our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should
reach up to at most 01N before diminishing.

$$
Landsea