000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272212 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026

Updated for details on Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm 
Lowell

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 11.1N
111.9W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind 
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 
around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection 
covers and expansive area, within 900 nm in the SE semicircle and 
240 nm in the NW semicircle. Karina is moving toward the west-
northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the 
next several days. Strengthening is anticipated, and Karina is 
forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Swells generated by 
Tropical Storm Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of 
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.3N 133.8W at 27/2100
UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 330 nm in the 
SE semicircle and 105 nm in the NW semicircle. Lowell is moving 
toward the east-northeast. A gradual turn toward the north is 
expected by Friday, with a westward motion expected by Saturday.
Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell 
could become a hurricane by Saturday night. Please read the latest 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the 
latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 85W north of 06N to across
portions of western Costa Rica and central Nicaragua, moving 
quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is 
described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon 
Trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 95.5W north of 03N to near
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving quickly westward at around 20 
kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical
Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to the Gulf
of Papagayo near 10N85W to 08N93W to near newly upgraded Tropical
Storm Karina at 10.5N111.5W to 14N131W to Tropical Storm Lowell 
near 11.5N134W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection 
mentioned above in the Special Features section, scattered to 
numerous moderate isolated strong convection covers the waters 
roughly from 02N to 15N between 78W and 101W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina.

A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Winds are
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters with
moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California. Very active
showers and thunderstorms are present over the offshore waters 
of southern and southwestern Mexico as described with Karina
above, with locally higher winds and seas possible there.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 12.2N 
113.3W Fri morning, 13.5N 114.8W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a 
hurricane near 14.9N 116.4W Sat morning, 16.2N 118.0W Sat 
afternoon, 17.4N 119.6W Sun morning, and 18.1N 121.4W Sun 
afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 
18.6N 124.8W Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds 
will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early 
Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to 
moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong 
southeasterly winds is possible associated with convective 
complexes may move up the central and northern Gulf of California
both Fri and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low 
pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of 
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form early next week while it moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining 
increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
downwind to near 10N90W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with
5 to 7 ft seas there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters, with moderate seas, except slight near the 
coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. Very active showers and 
thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of
the offshore waters from Colombia northward as described in the 
monsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas 
possible there.

For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming
weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.
Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to 
the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly
winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into 
early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with 
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the 
monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina, and on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Lowell.

The remnant 1007 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 23.5N127W
with fresh to strong winds around rough seas from 20N to 30N 
between 124W and 133W. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds
dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of
the monsoon trough away from the Special Features systems and
Post-Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround
Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 104W and 119W.
Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 12.2N 
113.3W Fri morning, 13.5N 114.8W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a 
hurricane near 14.9N 116.4W Sat morning, 16.2N 118.0W Sat 
afternoon, 17.4N 119.6W Sun morning, and 18.1N 121.4W Sun 
afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 
18.6N 124.8W Mon afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to
11.6N 133.3W Fri morning, 12.1N 133.2W Fri afternoon, 12.6N 
133.7W Sat morning, 12.9N 134.8W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.3W Sun 
morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 138.0W Sun 
afternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to 
13.4N 141.6W Mon afternoon. The remnant low of Iselle will 
gradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend while 
remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest to 
140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Large 
southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through 
tonight before decaying and becoming confined to a large area 
around developing Karina. Looking ahead, much larger and more 
expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by 
early next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast 
to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
early next week while it moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds 
and seas along a similar path to Karina.

$$
Lewitsky