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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202207
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building 
in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the passage of a strong 
cold front today continues to support gale force winds to 45 kt 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Winds will decrease 
below gale force Mon afternoon as the ridge shifts eastwards and 
return flow establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Swell 
generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft 
seas that will reach near 103W from the source region by Mon 
evening. Marine interests transiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
should be aware of this gap wind event, and take necessary 
action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Please see the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further 
details. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a 
strong cold front moving across the NW Caribbean this evening 
will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the 
Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to minimal gale force are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo late tonight into Mon morning, 
with seas building to 12-13 ft. Strong winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Panama tonight through Tue night with seas to 9 ft. 
Fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Fonseca late 
tonight into Mon morning. Please see the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO 
headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located 
near 09N74W to 05N82W to 05N88W to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues 
from 04N99W to 05N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 103W and 116W 
and from 03N to 09N west of 124W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 60 nm either side of the equatorial trough.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please see Special Features section for more details on the 
ongoing storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, moderate north to northwest winds along the offshore 
waters off Baja California combined with long period NW swell is 
producing 8 to 9 ft seas over the waters off Baja California
based on latest altimeter data. Seas will slowly subside today
from N to S. A new set of NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft 
range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore waters on 
Mon morning. This swell event will spread across the remainder of
the offshore waters of Baja California through Tue night. 

Gulf of California: A ridge will build over the Great Basin 
early on Tue, leading to the return of strong winds along the 
entire Gulf through the middle of the week. The strength, fetch 
and duration of the winds will support wave heights of 8 to 9 ft 
over parts of the Gulf by Tue evening. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of 
the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong to near 
gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through at least 
Tue. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. 
Please, see Special Features section for more details.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A cold front weakens across the NW forecast area. The front will 
dissipate S of 30N tonight. High pressure in the wake of the 
front, currently located near 32N138W, will move NE over the 
next couple of days extending a ridge across the forecast 
region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support fresh to 
strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly W of 125W. In 
addition, expect increasing winds and building seas across the 
offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of Punta 
Eugenia on Mon, and N of 25N W of Baja California on Tue.

$$
NR