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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the passage of a strong cold front today continues to support gale force winds to 45 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Winds will decrease below gale force Mon afternoon as the ridge shifts eastwards and return flow establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Swell generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft seas that will reach near 103W from the source region by Mon evening. Marine interests transiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure building behind a strong cold front moving across the NW Caribbean this evening will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to minimal gale force are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo late tonight into Mon morning, with seas building to 12-13 ft. Strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Tue night with seas to 9 ft. Fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Fonseca late tonight into Mon morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located near 09N74W to 05N82W to 05N88W to 04N99W. The ITCZ continues from 04N99W to 05N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 103W and 116W and from 03N to 09N west of 124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the equatorial trough. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for more details on the ongoing storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate north to northwest winds along the offshore waters off Baja California combined with long period NW swell is producing 8 to 9 ft seas over the waters off Baja California based on latest altimeter data. Seas will slowly subside today from N to S. A new set of NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore waters on Mon morning. This swell event will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California through Tue night. Gulf of California: A ridge will build over the Great Basin early on Tue, leading to the return of strong winds along the entire Gulf through the middle of the week. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights of 8 to 9 ft over parts of the Gulf by Tue evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong to near gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through at least Tue. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please, see Special Features section for more details. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front weakens across the NW forecast area. The front will dissipate S of 30N tonight. High pressure in the wake of the front, currently located near 32N138W, will move NE over the next couple of days extending a ridge across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly W of 125W. In addition, expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of Punta Eugenia on Mon, and N of 25N W of Baja California on Tue. $$ NR