274 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190857
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 86W from 08N near the Gulf of
Papagayo northward across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras 
into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 15 kt. Nearby 
Convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 125W from 05N to 18N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby Convection is described below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure located near
the coast of northern Colombia near 09N76W to across Panama and
Costa Rica to 07N100W to 11N120W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N 
between 77W and 81W, from 06N to 12N between 116W and 122W, and 
from 07N to 14N between 123W and 125W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 77W and 86W, from 05N
to 09N between 88W and 101W, from 05N to 10N between 106W and 
113W, and from 06N to 13.5N between 125W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along 
with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, locally moderate or weaker 
winds continue. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwest 
swell, mixed NW swell in the outer Baja California offshore 
waters, except slight seas in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate southeast winds will pulse over the 
northern Gulf of California, reaching moderate to fresh speeds 
early Sun as low pressure develops just north of the area. 
Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds will then prevail 
through Tue night as the low remains stationary. Pulsing fresh to
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days. 
Afterward, high pressure over the Gulf of America will shift 
eastward, and winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to 
fresh speeds. Rough seas are forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas will prevail. Winds may freshen near Baja 
California by mid-week as the local pressure gradient tightens 
slightly.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate 
to locally fresh southerly winds are over the waters between 
Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands along with seas of 6 to 7 ft in
south to southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere
across the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these 
waters are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Very active and
intense convection is from offshore Colombia to the Gulf of
Panama as described above.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night 
with periods of rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
associated with this gap wind event will continue to affect the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid- 
week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue
between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Wed night 
along with moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure is analyzed well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N
and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 124W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and the wave is allowing for 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to exist from north of 
the monsoon trough to 19N between 120W and 140W. Seas over these
waters are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east 
trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ along 
with 5 to 7 ft seas, locally to 8 ft near 140W in the west- 
central waters. South of the monsoon, winds are moderate to
locally fresh and seas to 7 ft in SE swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades 
will change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ 
through early Sat, then shift to the western part of the area as
the gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure 
tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 9 ft with 
the tighter gradient over the western part of the area early Sun 
through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds. Seas will
build to around 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 105W by
this afternoon, then lingering through the early part of the 
week.

$$
Lewitsky