425 
AXPZ20 KNHC 261535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.9N 111.7W at 26/1500 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with
gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 43 ft (13.5 m). Polo is a
powerful Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. A clear 15 nm wide eye is observed. Numerous strong 
convection is within 90 nm of the center. Polo will make a 
gradual turn toward the northwest late today and toward the north
on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward and 
approach Baja California Sur. Slow weakening is expected to begin
tonight, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as 
it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to 
produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 
10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall 
may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially 
in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast 
rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 19.8N 123.7W at 26/1500 UTC,
moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
Peak seas are 33 ft (10 m). Odalys is now a Category 2 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is 
forecast to continue through early next week. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is 
expected to maintain its current motion today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Sun. An eastward to southeastward motion
is forecast early next week. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Gale Warning (Invest EP90): Low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continues to become better organized, and strong
winds are increasing. Gale force winds are forecast to develop in
association with this low as early as Sun afternoon offshore
Oaxaca and Curer. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a 
day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the 
next 48 hours. The broader circulation, deep moisture, and 
instability associated with this system is already producing 
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Southern 
Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Sat night across 
portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well as 
Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 09N90W to Invest 
EP90 and to 14N99W. It resumes south of Odalys at 14N122W to 
11N127W to 10N130W and to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 84W-87W, from 05N 
to 09N between 127W-134W, and from 01N to 09N west of 135W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 92W-96W,
and within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 122W-127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest 90E, which has
now prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. 

Fresh northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. 
Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. Overnight satellite scatterometer data
passes indicate gentle to moderate northwest to north winds 
offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds 
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters away from Hurricane 
Polo. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Large 
seas in long- period southeast to south swell out ahead of Polo 
are impacting the offshore waters of Baja California south of 
about Punta Eugenia and at the entrance of the Gulf of 
California. Seas produced by the swell are in the range of about 
8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in west to northwest are over the 
offshore waters of the states of Michoacan and Guerrero and seas
of 5 to 7 ft in west to northwest swell are over the waters of 
those states. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are in the central section of the
Gulf of California, 3 ft or less in the northern section and 4 
to 6 ft in the southern section of the Gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W
this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to 
near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun 
afternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N 
113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. 
Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over 
NW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo 
will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California 
offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys 
will move to near 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 
123.5W late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 
123.1W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 
kt, move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post-
tropical and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken
to a remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change 
little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue 
night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, 
located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming 
better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a 
day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast winds are
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure organizes
south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds
dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas 
are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. 

For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the 
area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and
locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through 
the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to 
prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along 
with mostly moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. 

Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward 
over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it
and Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters 
west of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W.
Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per overnight satellite 
altimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are 
elsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough 
seas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. 

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N 
112.1W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves
to near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun 
afternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N 
113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. 
Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over 
NW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo 
will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California 
offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys 
will move to near move to 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 
21.0N 123.5W late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 
21.8N 123.1W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt 
gusts 75 kt, move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become 
post- tropical and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then 
weaken to a remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and 
change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late 
Tue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, 
located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming 
better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a 
day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico. 

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form 
over the next day or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast 
of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression could form early next week. The system is forecast to 
move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to near gale southwest winds will
develop south of the monsoon trough over the far western part of
the area starting this afternoon in response to the developing 
area of low pressure, Seas are expected to build to around 8 to 
11 ft with these winds.

$$
Konarik