000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212031
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 111W from 04N northward to 
18N, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 08N to 12N between 107W and 112W. 

A tropical wave has its axis near 135W from 06N to 20N, moving 
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 10N to 15N between 130W and 135W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N76W to 08N100W to 07N120W to 
10N131W. The ITCZ extends from 12N136W to beyond 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N
between 77W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 11N between 91W and 101W, from 06N to 10N between 112W 
and 116W, and from 08N to 12N between 118W and 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the east coast of Baja California,
with high pressure ridging southward to the west. The resultant
pressure gradient is supporting moderate NW for offshore waters,
with moderate to fresh winds E of the trough in the northern Gulf
of California. Fresh to locally strong gap winds continue in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds
are mainly gentle with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California through Tue. Pulsing fresh to locally
strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
into Wed night as a diurnal surface trough is expected to move 
from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds are likely 
to freshen west of Baja California by mid-week as the pressure 
gradient tightens slightly, then increase to fresh to strong 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. 
Moderate southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. Light and variable winds are elsewhere 
across the Central America offshore waters. Seas over the 
remainder of the waters are 3 to 6 ft in south to southwest 
swell.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to 
east winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Thu, then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will continue to 
affect the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala 
into late week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds 
will continue between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 20N and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near 
135W. Winds near this wave are fresh to locally strong, with 
seas of 8 to 10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
the tropical wave is also allowing for moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds to exist from 11N to 22N between 125W 
and 140W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with 4 to 7
ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are 
moderate, except locally fresh near 140W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft 
in southeast to south swell, except to around 8 ft near the 
Equator at 140W.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 135W has a
low chance for some slight tropical development tonight as it 
moves westward at around 10 kt, although environmental conditions
are becoming increasingly unfavorable. Otherwise, the moderate 
to fresh northeast to east trades north of the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ will gradually shift west and increase slightly as the 
gradient between the tropical wave and the high pressure 
tightens. Seas will also increase in this area, to up to 11 ft, 
Tue and Wed. 

$$ Konarik