318 
AXPZ20 KNHC 302050
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 09.5N86W to 07N99W 
to 08.5N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N115W to 07N124W to
06.5N133W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered to locally numerous 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N east of 
86.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 03N to 08N between 87W and 112W, and from 05N to 09N 
between 122W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate N-NW winds 
across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, 
becoming gentle to moderate from 20N through the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell. Moderate westerly 
winds were indicated near the coast from near Cabo Corrientes to 
Puerto Angel, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere, including inside the Gulf of California. Seas
across the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico are around 5 
ft in fading S swell, and 3 ft or less inside the Gulf of 
California, except 4 to 5 ft in SW swell across the entrance.

For the forecast, high pressure remains centered well NW of the
area and extends a broad ridge southeastward across the Baja 
waters W of 110W. The high pressure will begin to slowly weaken
and shift southeastward tonight through through the remainder of
the week, leading to a gradual decrease in winds and seas across
the Baja waters. S to SW winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh W to SW 
gap winds will develop across the northern Gulf of California 
tonight and Thu nights. A cold front will move into the Baja 
Norte waters Sat night and reach the central Baja waters Sun, 
accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas across 
the Baja offshore waters, and strong westerly gap winds across 
the Gulf of California through Mon morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh 
easterly gap winds across the Papagayo region extending into 
northern Nicaragua, with fresh E-NE winds downwind of the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Moderate northerly winds were shown across the Gulf 
of Panama to 06N. Moderate to locally fresh S winds were noted 
between the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia. Gentle 
winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in fading S to 
SW swell. Scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms remain 
active across the near and offshore waters of Colombia northward
into the Gulf of Panama, and westward to 86.5W and the coasts of
Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night 
across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before winds 
diminish and become variable through the upcoming weekend. 
Moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will diminish 
slightly through Thu, then become light and variable into the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected to develop
across the waters between the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and 
Colombia tonight and persist into Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 
and W of 110W, centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 35N136W. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in 
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE trade winds N of
the ITCZ to 22N and W of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the
7-9 ft range. Moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the remaining
waters N of 22N and W of 110W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in N to NE
swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and 
seas of 5-6 ft prevail. Moderate thunderstorms activity is 
within 150 nm N of the ITCZ to the west of 122W.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will begin to
slowly weaken and shift southeastward through Fri, ahead of an 
approaching frontal system. The weakening ridge will result in a 
decreasing trend in winds and seas N of the ITCZ through end of 
the week. A cold front will enter the NW waters Fri evening,
reach from Southern California to 30N122W to 26N140W Sat evening,
and reach central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening.  
move E-SE and reach from 30N121W to 26N140W by Sat evening.
Strong high pressure behind the front will promote fresh to 
locally strong N to NE winds and building seas of 8 to 12 ft  
behind the front through the weekend.

$$
Stripling