000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 24.0N 122.9W, or about 480 nm
west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 06/2100 UTC, moving 
northwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. 
Peak seas are to near 28 ft (8.5 m). Latest satellite imagery 
shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 
nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen elsewhere within 60 nm of the center, except 
90 nm in the SW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn toward the 
west-northwest tonight before resuming a northwestward heading 
at a faster forward speed in Tue. Steady weakening is expected to
continue for the next several days. Marie is forecast to become 
a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie 
will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest 
Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California 
for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- 
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
 
A tropical wave has its axis along 107.5W from 04N to 19N. It is
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are seen from 12N to 18N between 103W and 110W. 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 10N to 19N 
between 103W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near northwest Colombia,
westward across northern Panama, and continues to 10N85W to 
10N96W to 11N102W to 10N113W to 11N123W to 10N130W and to beyond
09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from the Equator to 09n west of 115W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 08N between 77W-88W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between
92W-110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Hurricane Marie centered about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta
Eugenia, Mexico.

Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe 
of Hurricane Marie are over the outer offshore waters from 
Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas within these winds are
8 to 12 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds 
and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of 
the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over Baja California Sur, 
and over the southern portion of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is forecast to weaken to
to a tropical storm near 24.4N 123.7W late tonight, move to near
25.0N 124.9W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt 
gusts 55 kt, to near 25.6N 126.3W late Mon night, to near 26.7N 
127.4W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 
kt, to near 28.6N 128.4W late Tue night, then weaken to a remnant
low near 30.7N 129.4W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore 
waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California 
early this week as Marie moves farther away from the forecast 
waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
expected to begin by around the middle portion of the upcoming 
week. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located several 
hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, 
and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter 
portions of this week while the system moves generally west-
northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Earlier satellite Ascat data captured fresh northeast to east 
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with 
these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and 
Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and 
higher seas.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building 
ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap 
winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near 
gale Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are
expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information about
Hurricane Marie located about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta 
Eugenia, Mexico.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Hurricane Marie over 
the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic
winds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W 
associated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm 
Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern 
Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 
5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical 
eastern Pacific.

For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 24.0N 122.9W, or
about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 2 PM 
PDT, and is moving northwest at 06 kt. Maximum sustained winds 
are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure 
is 980 mb. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm near 24.4N 
123.7W late tonight, move to near 25.0N 124.9W Mon afternoon with
maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 25.6N 126.3W 
late Mon night, to near 26.7N 127.4W Tue afternoon with maximum 
sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, to near 28.6N 128.4W late Tue 
night, then weaken to a remnant low near 30.7N 129.4W Wed 
afternoon.

Looking ahead, cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft 
in the southern waters west of about 100W during much of the 
week. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical 
miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual 
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle or latter portions of this week 
while the system moves generally west-northwestward.

$$
Aguirre