000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170306
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elida: centered near 15.9N 119.1W at 17/0300 UTC,
moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. 
Peak seas are currently around 23 ft or 7.0 m. Numerous moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm of the center, 
except within 540 nm in the SW quadrant of Elida. Elida is moving
toward the west. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected 
tonight and Fri, followed by a northwestward motion through the 
weekend. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Fri. Weakening is 
forecast to begin later this weekend and continue through early 
next week. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the 
west coast of Baja California through this weekend. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Well Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico: A tropical 
wave located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico near 103.5W is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described with the
monsoon trough below. Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form by later this weekend while it moves west-
northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central 
portion of the Eastern Pacific. This system currently has a 
medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and
a high chance through the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, expect increasing winds and building seas to
impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to 
the Revillagigedo Islands this weekend into early next week.
Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 103.5W, from 02N to 17N just SW of the
coast of southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. 
Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough
section below. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia at 10N75W to 08N79.5W to 09.5N86W to 07N96W to
17.5N112.5W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 14N121W to
10.5N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 300 nm either side of the axis east of 100W, within 150 nm
north of the axis between 100W and 112.5W, and within 300 nm
south of the axis between 100W and 112.5W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 138W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Elida, centered about 669 nautical miles southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave near
103.5W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the periphery
of Tropical Storm Elida continue to impact Clarion Islands. Seas
are 8 to 15 ft across the waters south of 22N and west of 111W.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas
are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure
gradient and nocturnal gap wind flow. A weak ridge prevails
across the remainder of the offshore waters from the northwest to
the southeast in the wake and to the east of Elida resulting in
moderate or weaker winds. Moderate seas prevail also away from
Elida and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with slight seas in the Gulf
of California. Active convection is present well offshore of
southern and southwest Mexico near the monsoon trough as
described above.

For the forecast, other than the chance for tropical cyclone
formation with the tropical wave currently near 103.5W discussed
above, Tropical Storm Elida will strengthen to a hurricane near 
16.4N 120.4W Fri morning as it moves farther away from the 
Revillagigedo Islands, with outer associated conditions improving
across the area Sat. As Elida moves toward the NW, the ridge 
over Baja California will weaken leading to mainly light to 
gentle winds. However, seas generating by Elida will propagate 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Fri 
through Sun. Expect building seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly across 
the outer forecast waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for locally 
fresh winds in the northern Gulf at times. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through the next several days, with locally rough seas at times.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region
and downwind to near 89W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are 
noted elsewhere from 09N to 12N to the west of 87W. Seas are 5 
to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE
winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and near the Azuero Peninsula. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in S to SW
swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except 
slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and 
nearshore western Colombia. Active convection is present near the
monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters north of
Ecuador as described above, with locally higher winds and seas
possible.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early
next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf
of Fonseca. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, 
except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and 
nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama 
at night. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere into 
early next week, possibly freshening south of the monsoon trough 
by midweek. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 669 nautical miles 
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a 
tropical wave near 103.5W with the potential for tropical cyclone
formation.

A ridge dominates most of the waters north of the monsoon trough and
west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida 
supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds from 12N to 30N west of
120W where seas are 5 to 7 ft, locally to 8 ft near 140W from 15N
to 25N. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, with 5 to
7 ft in mixed swells, except slightly lower at 4 to 6 ft from 25N
to 28N to the east of 130W. Very active convection is along the
monsoon trough to the east-southeast of Elida as described 
above.

For the forecast, other than the chance for tropical cyclone
formation with the tropical wave currently near 103.5W discussed
above, Tropical Storm Elida will strengthen to a hurricane near
16.4N 120.4W Fri morning, move to 17.5N 121.8W Fri evening, 
18.8N 123.2W Sat morning, 20.4N 124.4W Sat evening, weaken to a 
tropical storm near 22.1N 125.5W Sun morning, and 23.7N 126.5W 
Sun evening. Elida will become post-tropical as it moves to 27.5N
128.0W late Mon. Seas may build to rough near 03.4S120W by the
start of the weekend as winds freshen south of the monsoon trough
in the wake of Elida and as the tropical wave near 103.5W
potentially develops. These seas will spread northward as that
occurs. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the
remainder of the open waters.

$$
Lewitsky