000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072118
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near
10N74W to 05N90W to 06N101W. The ITCZ continues from 06N101W to 
06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Convection is limited at this time.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A modest ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico continues to support fresh to strong north 
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. A 1022 
mb high pressure center is analyzed west of Baja California near 
26N124W. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for mainly 
moderate NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle 
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate NW 
winds are also noted across the central Gulf of California while 
light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, 1 to 3 ft in the
Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will maintain fresh 
to occasionally strong gap winds and occasional rough seas across
the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec waters through Sat. Farther 
north, strengthening high pressure NW of area will bring 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California, and mainly N
of Cabo San Lazaro, this upcoming weekend. Seas are forecast to 
build to 8 or 9 ft within these winds. Mainly light to gentle 
winds and slight seas are expected in the Gulf of California 
through at least Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas diminish 
across the Mexican offshore waters through Tue, except for fresh 
northwest winds and residual northwest swell off Baja California,
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region continues to enhance the trade
wind flow in the southwestern Caribbean and southern Central 
America, resulting in persistent gap winds across the Papagayo 
region, the Nicaraguan offshore waters and the Gulf of Fonseca, 
extending to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft across 
this area. Moderate to fresh north winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama reaching southward to near 05N as noted per a recent  
scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas there are about 4 to 6 
ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long-period SW 
swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather
pattern across the region as a ridge will persist N of area.  
This will support pulses of fresh to occasionally strong 
northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region into early 
next week. Peak seas will build to around 5 to 8 ft downstream 
each late night through morning hours. Moderate north winds will 
pulse to locally fresh each evening and at night in the Gulf of 
Panama through Mon night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas in long-period southwest swell will prevail 
elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating cold front extends across the north waters from 
31N120W to 29N122W to 21N135W. Moderate to fresh north to 
northeast winds follow the front along with seas of 8 to 10 ft in
long-period northwest swell. An altimeter pass confirmed the 
presence of these sea heights. E of the front, a 1022 mb high 
pressure center is located near 26N124W, with a ridge extending 
SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting 
fresh to strong trade winds along and north of the ITCZ to about 
15N and W of 125W based on satellite derived winds data. Wave 
heights are 7 to 9 ft in this area of trade winds from a 
combination of wind generated east swell and a northerly swell 
component. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will strengthen this
upcoming weekend. Its associated ridge will dominate most of the
forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. As a result, the
aerial extent and strength of the trades will increase west of 
120W through Tue. Peak seas are expected to reach 10 or 11 ft 
within these winds W of 125W on Tue. 

$$ 
GR