000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052129
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.1N 134.1W at 2100 UTC,
moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Peak seas are currently around 4 m, or 13 ft, within 45 nm across
the NW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted within 150 nm across the W 
semicircle. Additional scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong. Amanda is 
expected to move west-southwestward through this evening, 
followed by a southwestward motion tonight through Sun. Gradual 
weakening is expected to continue through the weekend. Amanda is 
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Sat afternoon and 
degenerate into a remnant low on Mon. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73.5W to 10.5N91W to
09.5N95W to low pressure near 14N104.5W 1009 mb to 09.5N121W to 
10N121W to 10.5N128W to 07.5N137W to 08N140W. Scattered to 
numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to
12N E of 94W, and from 07.5N to 17N between 94W and 110W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N 
to 10.5N between 110W and 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center located near
34N145W, extends a ridge southeastward and into the Baja 
California waters to S of  the Revillagigedo Islands. This 
pattern is producing gentle NW winds across the Baja waters, and
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur 
waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are
5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the N 
through SW of Isla Guadalupe in fresh N-NW swell. Inside the 
Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S winds generally
prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf, except 4 to 6 
ft in SW swell across the entrance. Across the remainder of the 
Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, with 
seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters between 
Chiapas and Colima as described above.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a 
broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through 
Mon as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will support 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds through tonight, then diminish 
slightly through Mon, except persisting to fresh near Cabo San 
Lucas. Rough seas in building NW swell will propagate across the
outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sun, then begin
to merge with large S swell Sun night through Tue, raising seas
to 8-9 ft across all Baja waters. Southerly winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong in the Gulf of California N of 30N Sat night and 
Sun night. Low pressure located well offshore of southwestern 
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form during the next several days while it moves slowly 
northeastward near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this 
system has a high chance of medium chance of tropical cyclone 
formation within 48 hours and a high chance through 7 days.

....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface pressure pattern continues N of the region, across
the Gulf of America and western Caribbean. This pattern is 
yielding light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore
waters N of 10N, except locally moderate gap winds offshore 
Nicaragua, extending beyond 90W, where a weak low center is
beginning to develop along 92W. Light to gentle S to SW winds
prevail S of 10N becoming gentle to moderate across the outer
waters and from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas 
of 5 to 8 ft in building SW swell prevail across the area waters,
except 7 to 9 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have become locally numerous
across much of the area waters S of 10N this afternoon, with 
higher winds and seas likely near this activity.

For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate into the 
regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat 
morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands. New larger SW swell is expected to 
arrive Sat night, propagating northeastward and into the area
coastal waters by late Sun, building seas to 7 to 10 ft. SW to W
monsoonal winds are expected to strengthen Sat night through Sun
and aid in the development of low pressure offshore of Central
America. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is already
occurring across these waters this afternoon. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this low pressure 
system, and a tropical depression could form during the next 
several days while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of 
Central America. Regardless of development, fresh to strong 
monsoonal winds will increase over the weekend, likely leading 
to heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and 
Guatemala. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation within the next 7 days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical
Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur.

High pressure at 1030 mb near 34N145W dominates the waters N of 
15N and W of 115W, extending southeastward to S of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and T.S. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
across the waters N of 12N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters
and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of 
trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds prevail N of 20N between 115W and 130W, where seas are 6 
to 9 ft in N to NE swell and near 10 ft along 30N. Mainly gentle
winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 115W, with moderate 
to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 115W, and 7 to 9 ft in 
mainly S to SW swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.9N 
134.5W tonight, reach near 12.5N 134.9W late Sat afternoon as a
tropical depression, reach near 11.6N 135.7W late Sun afternoon,
then become a post tropical remnant low near 11.3N 136.5W Sun
night. Meanwhile, the high pressure NW of the area will drift W 
and weaken slightly across the area waters today through Mon as 
Tropical Storm Amanda tracks SW over the western portion of the 
area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade 
wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat 
morning, before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves 
through the regional waters through early next week, reaching to 
20N Sun night through Mon. Northerly swell in the N-central 
waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the next several 
days.

Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase
to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early
next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both
southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.

$$
Stripling